Space-time modelling of the spread of pancreas disease(PD) within and between Norwegian marine salmonid farms
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1
Norwegian Computing Center, Norway
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2
Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Norway
Infectious diseases are a constant threat to industrialised farming, which is characterised by high densities of farms and farm animals. Several mathematical and statistical models on spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases in farmed host populations have been developed during the last decades, covering various farming systems. Here we present such a spatio-temporal stochastic model for the spread of a disease between and within aquaculture farms. The spread between farms is divided into several transmission routes, including i) distance related to spread between neighbouring farms and ii) between farms through other types of contagious contacts. The within-farm infection dynamics is modelled by a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We apply this framework to model the spread of pancreas disease (PD) in marine farms in Norway, using data covering all farms producing salmonids over 9 years. The motivation for this exercise is partly to gain insight into the spatio-temporal dynamics of this disease in salmonid farming, which is of importance to disease control. We find, for example, that the within-farm infection pressure varies with season and we estimate the timing from unobserved infection events to disease outbreaks are detected. Partly our motivation was also to use the model for scenario simulation to test the effect of various control strategies. The simulations suggest that if a culling strategy is implemented, with culling of infected fish stocks within a month post PD detection, the number of detected disease outbreaks per year may be reduced by 57 % after the full effect has been reached.
References
Aldrin, M., Huseby, R.B. and Jansen, P.A., 2015. Space-time modelling of the spread of pancreas disease (PD) within and between Norwegian marine salmonid farms. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 121, p. 132-141.
Keywords:
Bayesian Models,
Disease Models, Animal,
space-time analysis,
Fish Farming,
Scenario simulation
Conference:
AquaEpi I - 2016, Oslo, Norway, 20 Sep - 22 Sep, 2016.
Presentation Type:
Oral
Topic:
Aquatic Animal Epidemiology
Citation:
Aldrin
M,
Jansen
PA and
Huseby
RB
(2016). Space-time modelling of the spread of pancreas disease(PD) within and between Norwegian marine salmonid farms.
Front. Vet. Sci.
Conference Abstract:
AquaEpi I - 2016.
doi: 10.3389/conf.FVETS.2016.02.00038
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Received:
30 May 2016;
Published Online:
14 Sep 2016.
*
Correspondence:
Dr. Magne Aldrin, Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Norway, magne.aldrin@nr.no