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Spatial Regression Analysis on Reported Canine Rabies Cases in Davao City, Philippines from 2006 to 2017

Abigail J. Clemente1*
  • 1 University of the Philippines Mindanao, Philippines

With the knowledge that rabies remains endemic in the Philippines with an average of 2.13 deaths per million Filipinos, this study identifies the factors that influence the reported canine rabies incidence in Davao City. Spatial analysis was considered in this study in order to determine whether or not cases in one district contributed to those around it, i.e. reported canine rabies cases were not random. Precipitation, relative humidity, temperature, whether the dog was owned or not, vaccination efforts, castration as well as information and education campaigns were the explanatory variables used in the study. Utilizing the spatial panel lag model, space was found to be insignificant (i.e. ρ≥0.05), at a district level for the Queen’s contiguity and k-nearest neighbors spatial weight specifications, where k=1,2,3. The centroids for the districts were too far apart (exceeding 3 km) for reported canine rabies cases to affect one another. Omitting the spatial component, the Poisson and Negative Binomial count regression models with the default random effects specification were used. The two models were then compared using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), which concluded that the Poisson regression model best described the data set. Furthermore, the determinants of reported dog rabies cases are the presence of a rabid stray dog in a district. Government interventions can be further improved with this information and thorough surveillance as well as research on a smaller spatial scale is needed more than ever.

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Acknowledgements

I'd like to express my gratitude towards my incredible advisors Dr. May Anne E. Mata and Dr. Pedro A. Alviola, IV as well as my mentor Zython Paul T. Lachica. Many thanks to my panelists Dr. Lyre Anni E. Murao and Kenneth P. Montajes for the constructive criticism and feedback. I would also like to acknowledge the CHED DARE TO STOP Rabies Research Program for giving me the chance to make a difference. Thank you to my family and friends for the encouragement and prayers!

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Keywords: count models, spatial analysis, GIS - Geographic Information System, Rabies (canine), Panel regression models

Conference: GeoVet 2019. Novel spatio-temporal approaches in the era of Big Data, Davis, United States, 8 Oct - 10 Oct, 2019.

Presentation Type: Student oral presentation

Topic: Spatio-temporal surveillance and modeling approaches

Citation: Clemente AJ (2019). Spatial Regression Analysis on Reported Canine Rabies Cases in Davao City, Philippines from 2006 to 2017. Front. Vet. Sci. Conference Abstract: GeoVet 2019. Novel spatio-temporal approaches in the era of Big Data. doi: 10.3389/conf.fvets.2019.05.00015

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Received: 01 Jun 2019; Published Online: 27 Sep 2019.

* Correspondence: Miss. Abigail J Clemente, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao, 8022, Philippines, ajclemente@up.edu.ph