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Spatiotemporal clustering of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle in Chiang Mai and Lamphun, Thailand

Orapun Arjkumpa1*, Chalutwan Sansamur1, Pakdee Sutthipankul2, Chaidate Inchaisri3 and Veerasak Panyapornwittaya1
  • 1 Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Thailand
  • 2 Department of Livestock Development, Thailand
  • 3 Faculty of Veterinary Science, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious febrile vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed livestock with high socio-economic consequences globally. In Thailand, FMD is endemic with 183 and 262 outbreaks annually in 2015 and 2016 respectively. In this study, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of FMD outbreaks in cattle in Chiang Mai and Lamphun, northern Thailand in 2015 and in 2016. FMD cattle outbreaks from Chiang Mai and Lamphun provinces in Thailand from January 2015 to December 2016 were studied. A retrospective space-time scan statistic approach using the space-time permutation (STP), Poisson, and Bernoulli models were conducted to detect areas of higher incidence of FMD. Results showed statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters of FMD with the three different models. With the space-time permutation model, we observed nine and eight clusters in 2015 and 2016 respectively. With the use ofthe Poisson model one and three, and three and four clusters with the Bernoulli model in 2015 and 2016 respectively. In 2015, the most likely clusters were observed in Chiang Mai regardless of the model used with a minimum radii of 1.49 km (STP) and a maximun of 20 km (Bernoulli and Poisson). Outbreaks were clustered in the period between May and October. The most likely cluster in 2016 was observed in central Lumphun with the STP model, and in the southern area of Chiang Mai with the Poisson and Bernoulli models. The cluster size of STP model (8.51 km) was smaller than Poisson and Bernoulli model (> 20 km). The cluster period in 2016 for the Poisson model was ~ 7 months, four, and one months for Bernoulli and STP model respectively. Results here indicated FMD outbreaks agreagation consistently in 2015 and 2016 in Chiang Mai and in central Lamphun in 2016. These findings might help to inform the control, surveillance of FMD in Chiang Mai and Lamphun.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Chiang Mai and Lamphun provincial livestock offices for providing the data of FMD outbreaks in Chiang Mai and Lamphun. We acknowledged the efforts of local livestock officers and farmers in investigating and reporting FMD cases. We also would like to thank colleagues in Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University for suggestions and software supports.

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Keywords: Spatiotemporal cluster, Model, Cattle, Foot and mouth disease, northern Thailand

Conference: GeoVet 2019. Novel spatio-temporal approaches in the era of Big Data, Davis, United States, 8 Oct - 10 Oct, 2019.

Presentation Type: Student oral presentation

Topic: Spatio-temporal surveillance and modeling approaches

Citation: Arjkumpa O, Sansamur C, Sutthipankul P, Inchaisri C and Panyapornwittaya V (2019). Spatiotemporal clustering of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle in Chiang Mai and Lamphun, Thailand. Front. Vet. Sci. Conference Abstract: GeoVet 2019. Novel spatio-temporal approaches in the era of Big Data. doi: 10.3389/conf.fvets.2019.05.00084

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Received: 10 Jun 2019; Published Online: 27 Sep 2019.

* Correspondence: DVM. Orapun Arjkumpa, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Muang, Thailand, arjkumpa@hotmail.com