%A Dunant,Alexandre
%D 2021
%J Frontiers in Earth Science
%C
%F
%G English
%K Bias/variance,Multi-hazard,Risk Assessment,catastrophes and disasters,Complex System
%Q
%R 10.3389/feart.2021.685301
%W
%L
%N 419
%M
%P
%7
%8 2021-May-31
%9 Perspective
%#
%! Are we missing the target?
%*
%<
%T Are We Missing the Target? A Bias-Variance Perspective on Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment
%U https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2021.685301
%V 9
%0 JOURNAL ARTICLE
%@ 2296-6463
%X This paper presents a generalization of the bias-variance tradeoff applied to the recent trend toward natural multi-hazard risk assessment. The bias-variance dilemma, a well-known machine learning theory, is presented in the context of natural hazard modeling. It is then argued that the bias-variance statistical concept can provide an analytical framework for the necessity to direct efforts toward systemic risk assessment using multi-hazard catastrophe modeling and inform future mitigation practices.