Skip to main content

ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Earth Sci.
Sec. Atmospheric Science
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/feart.2024.1379069
This article is part of the Research Topic

Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Prediction: Advances in Model Development and Its Applications

View all 6 Articles

Physics Schemes in the first version of NCEP Operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Provisionally Accepted

Weiguo Wang1* Jongil Han2 Junghoon Shin1 Xiaomin Chen3 Andrew Hazelton4, 5 Lin Zhu1 HYUN-SOOK KIM5 Xu Li1 Bin Liu1 Qingfu Liu2 John Steffen1 Ruiyu Sun2 Weizhong Zheng1 Zhan Zhang2 Fanglin Yang2
  • 1Independent researcher, United States
  • 2NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), United States
  • 3Department of Atmospheric and Earth Science, College of Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, United States
  • 4The Cooperative Institute For Marine And Atmospheric Studies,University of Miami, United States
  • 5Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA), United States

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

Receive an email when it is updated
You just subscribed to receive the final version of the article

This document summarizes the physics schemes used in two configurations of the first version of the operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFSv1) at NOAA NCEP.The physics package in HAFSv1 is the same as that used in NCEP global forecast system (GFS) version 16 except for an additional microphysics scheme and modifications to sea surface roughness lengths, boundary layer scheme, and the entrainment rate in the deep convection scheme. Those modifications are specifically designed for improving the simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs). The two configurations of HAFSv1 mainly differ in the adopted microphysics schemes and TC-specific modifications in addition to model initialization. Experiments are made to highlight the impacts of TC-specific modifications and different microphysics schemes on HAFSv1 performance. Challenges and developmental plans of physics schemes for future versions of operational HAFS are discussed.

Keywords: Hafs, Operational forecast, Physics parameterization, tropical cyclones, verification

Received: 30 Jan 2024; Accepted: 11 Apr 2024.

Copyright: © 2024 Wang, Han, Shin, Chen, Hazelton, Zhu, KIM, Li, Liu, Liu, Steffen, Sun, Zheng, Zhang and Yang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Dr. Weiguo Wang, Independent researcher, College Park, MD 20740, United States