Dynamic balancing method of power distribution and consumption tasks based on state iterative prediction and resource peaking shifting Provisionally Accepted

Tiantian Cai¹ Junjian Chen¹ Junye Li¹ Ming Hu² Xiaohua Li^2* Zexiang Cai² Xuhui Wang²

• ¹Technology R&D Center, China Southern Power Grid Digital Power Grid Research Institute Co., Ltd., China
• ²South China University of Technology, China

In the context of the new power system, the widespread access to massive distributed new energy sources has led to the power distribution and consumption tasks characterized by multiple time scales, wide random distribution, and large demand differences, resulting in unpredictable resource peaks in the tasks computing resource demand curve. In view of this situation, a method of forecasting and dynamic balancing of computing resource demand for power distribution and consumption tasks based on state iteration was proposed: firstly, the tasks computing resource demand model was established under the analysis of the attributes and parameter demand of the power distribution and consumption tasks scenario. Secondly, on the basis of the short-term effectiveness prediction of the traditional Markov model, the first-order difference of the state is used for data training to track the state fluctuation, and the historical state and the predicted state are used for state iteration, so as to avoid the convergence of long-term prediction. Finally, a dynamic balancing model is established according to the time-scale characteristics of cyclical and non-cyclical tasks, and the optimal configuration of load imbalance is achieved through the identification and adjustment of historical data and burst data. The simulation results show that the improved Markov model based on first-order difference and state iteration has the short-term accuracy of the traditional model and the long-term traceability of data fluctuations. The dynamic balancing model can combine the characteristics of historical data and burst data to effectively reduce the imbalance of resource demand, and show good ability to cope with resource imbalance deviation.