Knowing the Lay of the Land: Changes to Land Use and Cover and Landscape Pattern in Village Tank Cascade Systems of Sri Lanka Provisionally Accepted

Sujith S. Ratnayake^1* Michael A. Reid¹ Nicolette Larder¹ Danny Hunter² Manjula Ranagalage³ Punchi B. Dharmasena⁴ Benjamin Kogo⁵ Champika S. Kariyawasam⁵

• ¹University of New England, Australia
• ²Alliance Bioversity and CIAT, Italy
• ³Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka
• ⁴Faculty of Agriculture, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka
• ⁵School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Australia

Social-ecological systems (SESs) possess a great diversity of land use and land cover (LULC) types with unique assemblages of biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, LULC changes due to landscape fragmentation are emerging as major threats to the system productivity of SESs around the world. This study examined changes to LULC extent and landscape patterns in the Village Tank Cascade Systems (VTCSs) of Sri Lanka using satellite imagery and GIS techniques between 1994 and 2021. Multispectral Landsat images (5 TM and 8 OLI/TIRS) obtained from Google Earth Engine were classified using machine learning algorithms. Overall accuracies obtained were 85.9% (1994) and 88.6% (2021). The LULC change matrix and spatial pattern metrics were used to examine LULC and landscape pattern change dynamics over the VTCS landscapes. LULC change matrix results revealed that forest, which is the dominant LULC class covering 73.7% of the total land area was reduced by 206,725 ha due to transformation into agricultural (70.43%) and scrub (24.33%) lands between 1994 and 2021. Over this time landscape pattern of the VTCS has gradually changed from forest to agricultural land-dominated landscape, with forest and agricultural land types showing a significant negative correlation (p < 0.001; R 2 > 0.868), particularly in the southeastern region. Landscape patterns were analysed based on eight spatial metrics calculated at both the landscape and class levels using FRAGSTATS spatial pattern analysis software. At the landscape level, the structure became more dispersed and complex in shape. Heterogeneity was noted to have gradually increased with weakening connectivity, whereas the fragmentation process had gradually accelerated. At the class level, the dominance of forest patches decreased, fragmentation and isolation increased, and connectivity and shape complexity reduced leading to the loss of fragmented forest habitats. The number of patches within the agricultural class increased and became more aggregated and complex in shape. Landscape performance indicators show that VTCSs have experienced a gradual loss of environmental sustainability. Assessment of LULC along with fragmentation can help to monitor the spatial pattern impacts that determine ecological integrity. Thus, the study provides scientific guidance for ecological restoration in degraded VTCSs to effectively improve ecological productivity.