Analysis of Sea Level Variability and Its Contributions in the Bohai, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea Provisionally Accepted

Yanxiao Li^{1, 2} Jianlong Feng^{1, 2*} Xinming Yang^{1, 2} Shuwei Zhang^{1, 2} Guofang Cao³ Liang Zhao^{1, 2} Hongli Fu^3*

• ¹Tianjin University of Science and Technology, China
• ²College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, China
• ³National Marine Data and Information Service, China Oceanic Information Network, China

Understanding the sea level variability of the Bohai, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea (BYECS) is crucial for the socio-cultural and natural ecosystems of the coastal regions. In this study, based on satellite altimetry data, selected time range from 1993 to 2020, using the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis method distinguishes the primary sea level variability modes. The analysis encompasses the seasonal signal, trend, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) associated mode of sea level anomaly. The amplitude of the annual cycle demonstrates a non-stationary signal, fluctuating between -15% and 15% from the average. Monsoons, atmospheric forcing, ocean circulation, wind-driven Ekman transport, and the Kuroshio emerge as the primary factors influencing BYECS variability on seasonal scales. The satellite altimetry sea level exhibits an average trend within the range of 3-4 mm/year, while the steric sea level trend is generally smaller, falling within the range of 0-2 mm/year. Throughout the entire period, the contribution of steric sea level to the mean sea level trend consistently remains below 25%. Furthermore, BYECS sea level variations have a sensitive response to strong El Niño years, with a clear regionalization of the response, which is related to the intricate atmospheric circulation and local wind pressures, as well as the influence of ocean circulation. In conclusion, we gained a more comprehensive understanding of sea level variability in the BYECS, especially the annual cycle of sea level amplitude and the response of ENSO. However, more studies are still needed to differentiate the contribution of various factors.