AUTHOR=Khemlani Sangeet S. , Barbey Aron K. , Johnson-Laird Philip N. 

TITLE=Causal reasoning with mental models

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Human Neuroscience

VOLUME=8

YEAR=2014

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/human-neuroscience/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2014.00849

DOI=10.3389/fnhum.2014.00849

ISSN=1662-5161

ABSTRACT=<p>This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: <italic>A causes B to occur</italic> means that given <italic>A</italic>, <italic>B</italic> occurs, whereas <italic>A enables B to occur</italic> means that given <italic>A</italic>, it is possible for <italic>B</italic> to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.</p>