@ARTICLE{10.3389/fphy.2020.00171,
AUTHOR={Bonasera, Aldo and Zhang, Suyalatu},
TITLE={Chaos, Percolation and the Coronavirus Spread},
JOURNAL={Frontiers in Physics},
VOLUME={8},
PAGES={171},
YEAR={2020},
URL={https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fphy.2020.00171},
DOI={10.3389/fphy.2020.00171},
ISSN={2296-424X},
ABSTRACT={The dynamics of the spreading of the COVID-19 virus has similar features to turbulent flow, chaotic maps, and other non-linear systems: a small seed grows exponentially and eventually saturates. Like in the percolation model, the virus is most dangerous if the probability of transmission (or the bond probability p in the percolation model) is high. This suggests a relation with the population density, ρ_{s}, which must be higher than a certain value (ρ_{s} > 1,000 persons/km^{2}). A “seed' implanted in such populations grows vigorously and affects nearby places at distance x. Thus, the spreading is governed by the ratio ρ = ρ_{s}/x. Assuming a power law dependence τ of the number of positives to the virus N_{+} from ρ, we find τ = 0.55, 0.75, and 0.96 for South Korea, Italy, and China, respectively.}
}