%A Bonasera,Aldo
%A Zhang,Suyalatu
%D 2020
%J Frontiers in Physics
%C
%F
%G English
%K Chaos -,Turbuent mixing,Percolation,COVID 19,SARS
%Q
%R 10.3389/fphy.2020.00171
%W
%L
%N 171
%M
%P
%7
%8 2020-April-30
%9 Original Research
%#
%! Chaos, Percolation and the Coronavirus Spread
%*
%<
%T Chaos, Percolation and the Coronavirus Spread
%U https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fphy.2020.00171
%V 8
%0 JOURNAL ARTICLE
%@ 2296-424X
%X The dynamics of the spreading of the COVID-19 virus has similar features to turbulent flow, chaotic maps, and other non-linear systems: a small seed grows exponentially and eventually saturates. Like in the percolation model, the virus is most dangerous if the probability of transmission (or the bond probability p in the percolation model) is high. This suggests a relation with the population density, ρ_{s}, which must be higher than a certain value (ρ_{s} > 1,000 persons/km^{2}). A “seed' implanted in such populations grows vigorously and affects nearby places at distance x. Thus, the spreading is governed by the ratio ρ = ρ_{s}/x. Assuming a power law dependence τ of the number of positives to the virus N_{+} from ρ, we find τ = 0.55, 0.75, and 0.96 for South Korea, Italy, and China, respectively.