TY - JOUR
AU - Bonasera, Aldo
AU - Zhang, Suyalatu
PY - 2020
M3 - 10.3389/fphy.2020.00171
SP - 171
TI - Chaos, Percolation and the Coronavirus Spread
JO - Frontiers in Physics
UR - https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fphy.2020.00171
VL - 8
SN - 2296-424X
N2 - The dynamics of the spreading of the COVID-19 virus has similar features to turbulent flow, chaotic maps, and other non-linear systems: a small seed grows exponentially and eventually saturates. Like in the percolation model, the virus is most dangerous if the probability of transmission (or the bond probability p in the percolation model) is high. This suggests a relation with the population density, ρ_{s}, which must be higher than a certain value (ρ_{s} > 1,000 persons/km^{2}). A “seed' implanted in such populations grows vigorously and affects nearby places at distance x. Thus, the spreading is governed by the ratio ρ = ρ_{s}/x. Assuming a power law dependence τ of the number of positives to the virus N_{+} from ρ, we find τ = 0.55, 0.75, and 0.96 for South Korea, Italy, and China, respectively.
ER -