Edited by: Lara Lengel, Bowling Green State University, United States
Reviewed by: Emma Ruth Miller, Flinders University, Australia; Victoria Ann Newsom, Olympic College, United States
This article was submitted to Public Health Policy, a section of the journal Frontiers in Public Health
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Since the first case of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has quickly spread to all the corners of the world. Amid the global public health threats posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, active cooperative governance has gradually emerged as the most powerful weapon against its spread. To facilitate international cooperation for pandemic governance, this paper applied the evolutionary game theory to analyze the factors influencing active cooperative governance and, based on the results, proposed a series of recommendations for promoting international cooperation. (1) leveraging the role of international organizations to reduce the cost of realizing the strategy of active cooperative governance, (2) promoting the international exchange of related experiences to lower the cost of active pandemic governance, (3) sustaining productive and daily activities during the pandemic in a classified and hierarchical manner to reduce the economic loss incurred by active pandemic governance, and (4) optimizing the incentive measures of international organizations to facilitate the selection of active cooperative governance. Finally, from the four aspects of resource management of pandemic treatment, supply management of living materials, population flow cooperation management, and governance fund cooperation management, this paper gives the path of international pandemic cooperative governance.
Since the first case of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has quickly spread to all the corners of the world (
Owing to its longevity and extensiveness, the COVID-19 outbreak has dealt a severe blow to the global socio-economic order (
A virus knows no borders or race. Although countries worldwide have rolled out countermeasures in response to the outbreak, their effectiveness has fallen short of expectations (
Various strategies, based on lockdown, quarantine, increase medical and health resources, and international cooperation, to manage this pandemic have been extensively studied by numerous scholars (
The reason why we use game theory to analyze lies in the tragedy of Commons in pandemic prevention and control. In the pandemic prevention and control, countries will face the dual choice of controlling the number of infected people and economic restart. If a country pays attention to the economic effect and ignores the increase in the number of infected people, it will choose to restart the economy as soon as possible. The close contact brought by the restart of economic activities will increase the number of infected people, thus aggravating the infection situation of the whole region, which leads to the conflict between individual interests and collective interests. In this case, we need to use game theory to analyze. Game theory is widely used in environmental cooperative governance. Examples of using game theory to study global social and economic problems such as
In the current study, the application of game theory mainly focuses on non-cooperative game and cooperative game. A cooperative game is a game in which individuals cooperate to maximize the interests of the team, so as to promote the optimization of individual interests. The game theory focuses on the game behavior and strategy of the relevant stakeholders, which is suitable for the study of the cooperative relationship between countries. In the research object, game theory is aimed at different decision-making subjects, each subject represents their own interests, through the game behavior between different subjects to form an internal or external balance state. In the cooperative management of the pandemic situation, the game between governments is a repeated game process of random pairing and mutual learning, and its strategy adjustment process can be simulated by a replication dynamic mechanism. The evolutionary game analysis can reflect the behavior evolution path and stability strategy of governments in pandemic control, which has a certain reference significance for better carrying out pandemic control and reducing the losses caused by the pandemic. As far as research questions and content are concerned, few scholars have delved into issues such as how to enable and partake in international cooperative governance against COVID-19. Thus, the marginal contributions of this paper are two-fold. First, compared to previous studies (
This paper is structured as follows: first, the evolutionary game model is employed to analyze the factors influencing the strategic choice of active cooperative governance, both with and without constraints. Second, it analyzes the ways to enable the strategic selection of active cooperative governance by regulating variables such as the cost of active pandemic governance, cost of active cooperative governance, the economic loss incurred by active pandemic governance, and incentives for active and passive pandemic governance. The enabling mechanisms of international cooperative governance are analyzed and examined from four aspects: reducing the cost of cooperation by leveraging the role of international organizations, reducing the cost of governance by sharing experiences in pandemic governance, reducing economic loss by sustaining production during the pandemic, and guiding active cooperative governance by optimizing incentives. Lastly, this paper discusses the ways to partake in cooperative governance based on four aspects: management of COVID-19 relief resources, management of daily supplies, cooperative management of population movement, and cooperative management of government funds.
As the outbreak of COVID-19, a country or region first encounters the health crisis caused by the spread of the virus, and the intervention measures, such as isolation to prevent the spread of the pandemic, will reduce the number of infected persons, control the spread of the pandemic, and achieve prevention and control gains; secondly, economic development can bring economic benefits to the country or region, and the pandemic prevention and control will affect the economic recovery progress of the country or region and affect economic benefits. At the same time, due to population mobility, infected people will flow between countries. If one country actively controls the pandemic and the other country responds negatively, infected people from countries that respond negatively will have negative externalities, which will affect the prevention and control effect of other countries. If the two countries actively respond, reach a cooperative alliance and jointly control the pandemic situation, it will bring common benefits of pandemic prevention and control, such as regional traffic recovery and smooth foreign trade.
Let
The model settings are mainly derived from the evolutionary game model of air pollution control developed by Gao et al. (
When both affected countries adopt the strategy of passive pandemic governance, their respective returns will be −
Payoff matrix between two affected countries.
Active governance by Affected Country 1 | ||
Passive governance by Affected Country 1 | − |
− |
Suppose the probabilities that the strategy of active pandemic governance is chosen by Affected Countries 1 and 2 equal
The expected utilities of Affected Countries 1 and 2 when both choose active pandemic governance are defined as follows:
The expected utilities of Affected Countries 1 and 2 when both choose passive pandemic governance are expressed as follows:
The average expected utilities of Affected Countries 1 and 2 when active and passive pandemic governance, respectively, are chosen are as follows:
To obtain the evolutionary equilibrium strategy of each affected country, it is important to first define the replicator dynamics equations for Affected Countries 1 and 2, and then let them be 0. With that as a necessary condition for the evolutionary equilibrium strategy, the equilibrium must also be solved according to Friedman's method. The replicator dynamics equations are defined as follows:
Let
Evolutionary game phase diagram of cooperative governance.
According to Friedman's methods, this study identifies (0, 0) and (1, 1) as the evolutionarily stable strategies for the two affected countries. The corresponding strategies are for both countries to choose passive and active pandemic governance, respectively, with (
Substitute the values of
To enable each affected country to converge to the state of active cooperative governance, this study first observed the effects of changes in the following parameters on
This implies that, if the costs of active pandemic governance, the economic losses caused by such governance, and the cost of realizing the strategy of active cooperative governance are lower, the affected countries are more likely to choose the strategy of active cooperative governance over time.
In reality, first of all, in terms of the cost of controlling the pandemic, due to the differences in the economic level between countries and the ability of national financial investment, developed countries can spend more manpower and material resources to control the pandemic, while poor countries cannot afford the huge investment in pandemic prevention materials; secondly, in terms of the capacity of bearing economic loss, in order to reduce the death and spread of patients, developed countries tend to take longer-term measures of trade stop, blockade and isolation, while poor areas cannot afford long-term economic losses. Finally, in terms of the cost of cooperation strategy, if the two countries have a similar political and economic background and previous cooperation foundation, the resistance of cooperation between the two countries will be greatly reduced, thus contributing to the realization of cooperation. However, if there are huge economic differences and national contradictions, the increase of cooperation costs will hinder the realization of cooperative governance. Therefore, the lower the cost of controlling the pandemic, the smaller the economic loss and the lower the cost of achieving the cooperation strategy are conducive to the realization of the cooperation strategy.
Furthermore, the effects of the following parameters on
This implies that, if the individual returns of active pandemic governance, the public and shared returns of active cooperative governance, and the losses incurred by the pandemic are higher, the affected countries are more likely to choose the strategy of active cooperative governance over time.
Specifically, in reality, first of all, in the area of self-earnings, controlling the pandemic situation and reducing the number of infected persons will bring their own benefits to the national health, the credibility of the government, and the enhancement of the international image, which will promote the countries to actively respond to COVID-19. Secondly, active governance will reduce the number of domestic infections and reduce the number of domestic infections that will affect other countries' prevention of the pandemic. The prevention in own country can bring positive externalities to the prevention of other countries. At the same time, the cooperative governance will bring the partners the common benefits of the two countries' trade recovery. The improvement of public benefits and common benefits will promote cooperation. Finally, in terms of the harm of the pandemic, the more serious the economic and social harm caused by the pandemic, the more difficult it is for a single country to deal with it, and the need for other countries to cooperate, the easier the cooperation strategy will be achieved. Therefore, the greater the individual benefits, public benefits, common benefits, and the harm of the pandemic, the easier the cooperative governance strategy will be achieved.
The above analysis is set against an unconstrained background. However, in reality, the affected countries are under constraints imposed by a variety of international organizations currently in force, including the United Nations (UN), WHO, World Trade Organization (WTO), IMF, International Labor Organization, and Food and Agriculture Organization (
Payoff matrix between two affected countries under constraints.
Active governance by Affected Country 1 | ||
Passive governance by Affected Country 1 | − |
− |
First, this study defines the system of replicator dynamics equations and lets them be 0. Once again, five strategy equilibrium points for the two affected countries can be obtained: O (0, 0), C (0, 1), A (1, 0), B (1, 1), and D (
Similarly, according to Friedman's method, the strategy equilibrium points (0, 0) and (1, 1) are identified as evolutionarily stable strategies. When the probability of active governance being initially adopted by both Affected Countries 1 and 2, (
The previous section has already probed the effects of the following parameters on
In this section, the analytical focus shifts to the effects of the following parameters on
This means that if the joint organization punishes the countries that choose not to actively control the pandemic, subsidizes the countries that choose to actively control the pandemic, and rewards the alliance for actively cooperate to governance the pandemic, over time, each country will be more likely to choose the strategy of active cooperative governance. Specifically speaking, first, the punishment for the countries who negatively respond to the pandemic will promote the realization of cooperation, such as the World Health Organization's public criticism of the negative attitude of the United States in the early stage of the pandemic; second, subsidies will be given to the countries with active governance, and the financial assistance, scientific research and material assistance provided by the World Health Organization to the poor areas will help them control the pandemic. Finally, on the reward for the governance alliance, the WHO thanks the EU leaders for their efforts in uniting the world to fight the pandemic and providing the EU with materials for defeating the pandemic. Therefore, punishing the countries that negatively respond, subsidizing the countries that positively governance and rewarding the cooperative governance alliance are conducive to the achievement of cooperative strategies.
Summarizing the above, three conclusions can be drawn. First, if the costs of active pandemic governance, the economic losses incurred by such governance, and the cost of enabling the strategic choice of active cooperative governance are lower, the affected countries are more likely to choose active cooperative governance over time. Second, if the individual returns of active pandemic governance, the public and shared returns of active cooperative governance, and the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic are higher, the affected countries are more likely to adopt active cooperative governance over time. Third, if the coalition punishes countries for passive pandemic governance, subsidizes countries for active pandemic governance, and rewards alliances of active cooperative governance, the affected countries are more likely to opt for active cooperative governance over time. Additionally, the strategic continuity of active cooperative governance is determined by the magnitude of its returns and the constraints imposed by the coalition.
This study adopts the evolutionary game model to analyze factors influencing the strategic choice of active cooperative governance, along with the ways to enable such a choice. The individual returns of active pandemic governance, public and shared returns of active cooperative governance, and the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic are some of the more objective variables. Thus, to enable the strategic selection of active cooperative governance, efforts should be made to regulate the costs of active pandemic and active cooperative governance, the economic loss incurred by active pandemic governance, and the incentives for active and passive pandemic governance. The detailed measures are as follows: (1) leveraging the role of international organizations to reduce the cost of adopting active cooperative governance, (2) promoting the international exchange of related experiences to lower the cost of active pandemic governance, (3) sustaining productive and daily activities during the pandemic in a classified and hierarchical manner to reduce the economic loss incurred by active pandemic governance, and (4) optimizing the incentive measures of international organizations to guide countries adopt the strategy of active cooperative governance.
To reduce the cost of strategic selection, the UN—as the most authoritative of comprehensive international organizations—approved a draft resolution titled “Global Solidarity to Fight the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19),” introduced by six countries including Singapore, Ghana, and Indonesia, during the UN General Assembly. The resolution was co-sponsored by over 180 countries. The General Assembly's call for global solidarity and concerted efforts against the pandemic marked an important step in advancing international cooperation. The approval of the draft resolution saved the costs of negotiation and contract administration and lowered the threshold and resistance against international cooperation.
To reduce the cost of governance, the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients approximated to 4% in China and exceeded 6% in other regions. It is necessary for the hardest-hit areas such as Europe to draw on China's therapeutic regimens for a higher recovery rate. China has shared its experience and practices with over 10 countries including France, Portugal, and Denmark with regard to virological characteristics, anti-pandemic philosophy, and the latest research achievements in pathology. It also imparted to Europe information that is highly instrumental in clinical treatments, including information on Chinese medicine and many other clinical regimens, as well as the recommended dosage, contraindications, and efficacy of an antimalarial drug and other agents.
To reduce economic losses, it is important to ensure the smooth and continued operations of the global economy and trade. On the one hand, excessive draconian measures should be prohibited. Emergency measures should not stand in the way of global trade and supply chain operations. On the other hand, countries should endeavor to enact trade facilitation policies. Measures like tariff reduction, the lifting of trade barriers, and unimpeded trade should be implemented proactively, whereas trade disputes such as trade wars and tariff wars should be avoided. In terms of pandemic prevention and economic growth, we should learn from China's experience and implement production by classification according to the costs and benefits of pandemic prevention and production in various industries. First of all, no matter how severe the pandemic situation is, it is necessary to ensure the production of enterprises supplying medical materials, water, electricity, gas, communications and other basic living materials. Basic material support is the basis of pandemic prevention and control, and only by ensuring the production of these enterprises can we better prevent and control the pandemic. Second, governments should ensure safe production among enterprises by category and in stages on the premise that prevention and control can be carried out effectively. Enterprises in which employees can be segregated during production, those where production and consumption are separable, and those that encounter less negative impact from pandemic prevention and control can carry out production with specific conditions during the outbreak. However, enterprises that are unable to meet these criteria must wait for the pandemic to ease or end before they can resume production.
To optimize incentive measures, international organizations should reward countries that actively engage in global pandemic governance. They should offer them incentives such as waiving or reducing the current year's membership fees and lowering import and export tariffs.
The above discussion analyzed the influencing factors and enabling mechanisms associated with strategy realization for active cooperative governance. After strategy realization, measures to exploit each country's advantages to the fullest for the sake of global resource allocation against COVID-19 also warrant further investigation.
First of all, the COVAX Global New Crown Vaccine Initiative (New Crown Pneumonia Vaccine Implementation Program), jointly led by the World Health Organization and the GAVI Alliance, is currently the most effective mechanism for the equitable sharing of safe and effective vaccines worldwide, with the goal of promoting equitable global vaccine distribution. Effective vaccines should become global public goods, and first be provided to people in urgent need around the world (
Although this study scientifically expounds the view of international cooperation to respond to the COVID-19 by using game theory, it still has the following limitations. First, the game theory assumes that all subjects participating in decision-making are rational and represent their interests. However, in reality, the behavior of countries cannot keep rational all the time, which will affect the applicability of the conclusion. Secondly, although we consider the factors that affect the cooperation between countries as much as possible, there are still some factors that are difficult to consider, such as political factors, which will affect national decision-making. Third, our results have not taken into account the dynamic changes of the COVID-19. Despite the limitations, this study has important implications for international cooperation to manage pandemics.
In the face of the global public health threats posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, active cooperative governance has evolved into the strongest weapon against the outbreak. That being said, some national governments have stuck to passive solutions due to an inadequate understanding of the dangers of the outbreak. To facilitate international cooperative governance, this paper studies the factors of active cooperative governance in each pandemic area based on the evolutionary game method, and based on the analysis of influencing factors, gives the policy path of how to promote international cooperation in a pandemic situation and how to carry out national cooperative governance in a pandemic situation.
What factors affect the international cooperation of pandemic control? First, if the costs of active pandemic governance, the economic losses incurred by such governance, and the costs of enabling the strategic choice of active cooperative governance are lower, the affected countries are more likely to choose the strategy of active cooperative governance over time. Second, if the individual returns of active pandemic governance, the public and shared returns of active cooperative governance, and the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic are higher, the affected countries are more likely to adopt the strategy of active cooperative governance over time. Third, if the coalition punishes countries for passive pandemic governance, subsidizes countries for active pandemic governance, and rewards alliances of active cooperative governance, the affected countries are more likely to opt for active cooperative governance over time.
The following recommendations are also proposed for enabling active cooperative governance among countries: (1) leveraging the role of international organizations to reduce the cost of realizing the strategy of active cooperative governance, (2) promoting the international exchange of related experiences to lower the cost of active pandemic governance, (3) sustaining productive and daily activities during the pandemic in a classified and hierarchical manner to reduce the economic losses incurred by active pandemic governance, and (4) optimizing the incentive measures of international organizations to guide countries and effectively facilitate the selection of active cooperative governance strategies. The marginal contribution of this study lies in drawing upon the evolutionary game perspective to identify the enabling mechanisms and cooperative pathways underlying international cooperative governance.
How to carry on the international pandemic situation cooperation governance? First, in terms of medical material management, global allocation of medical equipment resources, collective cooperation in scientific research, and relevant assistance from medical staff; second, in terms of supply management of living materials, global allocation of food and other necessities of life, and international trade cannot prohibit or restrict exports; third, in terms of population flow and cooperation management, countries in the severely affected areas should restrict population Outflow: countries with a good pandemic situation should restrict the inflow of population, and countries close to the end of the pandemic should strictly prevent the import from abroad. Fourthly, in terms of fund management for pandemic control, through the United Nations and other international organizations, a fund pool for pandemic control should be set up to increase financial assistance to the severely affected areas, vulnerable areas, and economically difficult areas.
The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/supplementary material, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author/s.
HY and XZ: conceptualization. HY, SH, and YW: methodology. XZ, XL, and ZS: validation. HY, YW, and LX: formal analyses and investigation. HY, YW, XL, and XZ: writing—original draft preparation. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
1Data sources: