AUTHOR=Fuente David , Hervás David , Rebollo Miguel , Conejero J. Alberto , Oliver Nuria TITLE=COVID-19 outbreaks analysis in the Valencian Region of Spain in the prelude of the third wave JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health VOLUME=10 YEAR=2022 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1010124 DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2022.1010124 ISSN=2296-2565 ABSTRACT=Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented social and mobility restrictions on a global scale. Since its start in the spring of 2020, numerous scientific papers have been published on the characteristics of the virus, and the healthcare, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. However, in-depth analyses of the evolution of single coronavirus outbreaks have been rarely reported.

Methods

In this paper, we analyze the main properties of all the tracked COVID-19 outbreaks in the Valencian Region between September and December of 2020. Our analysis includes the evaluation of the origin, dynamic evolution, duration, and spatial distribution of the outbreaks.

Results

We find that the duration of the outbreaks follows a power-law distribution: most outbreaks are controlled within 2 weeks of their onset, and only a few last more than 2 months. We do not identify any significant differences in the outbreak properties with respect to the geographical location across the entire region. Finally, we also determine the cluster size distribution of each infection origin through a Bayesian statistical model.

Discussion

We hope that our work will assist in optimizing and planning the resource assignment for future pandemic tracking efforts.