Risk for Europe based on the health situation of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula
- 1Complutense University of Madrid, Spain
- 2VISAVET Health Surveillance Centre (UCM), Spain
The current growth of human population, the intensification of animal production, climate change or globalization favours an increase in the transmission of infectious diseases. Risk analysis is the tool that allows the identification of the factors involved in the introduction and the spread of infectious diseases. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the risk of entry of animal infectious zoonotic and non-zoonotic diseases from North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula to countries of the European Union. For a diseases introduction risk analysis, it has been developed probabilistic formulation to obtain the probabilities associated with each routes for each of the affected countries. The results show that, among the infectious diseases analysed in this study, avian influenza and Newcastle disease are the ones with a higher risk of entry in the European Union and the wild bird’s migration is the route with greater impact. It is confirmed a moderate probability of entry of some vector-borne diseases, bluetongue and epizootic haemorrhagic disease, through wind flow from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Due to the absence of live dromedary movement to Europe, the more likely way of entry of the Middle East respiratory syndrome is through the infected people movement from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman.
Keywords: risk analysis, infectious diseases, entry, Vector, Wind flow, Birds migration, Bluetongue, North Africa and Middle East
Received: 24 May 2019;
Accepted: 15 Aug 2019.
Edited by:Tariq Halasa, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Reviewed by:Tariku Jibat Beyene, Kansas State University, United States
Muhammad Hammad Hussain, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Oman
Copyright: © 2019 Massó Sagüés, Fernández Carrión and Sanchez-Vizcaino. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Mx. Elena Massó Sagüés, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain, email@example.com