AUTHOR=Wang Lei , Zhao Yun-Tao 

TITLE=Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Irreversible Worsened Cardiac Function in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine

VOLUME=Volume 8 - 2021

YEAR=2021

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/cardiovascular-medicine/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2021.785587

DOI=10.3389/fcvm.2021.785587

ISSN=2297-055X

ABSTRACT=Background
Irreversible worsening of cardiac function is an adverse event associated with significant morbidity among patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We aimed to develop a parsimonious model which is simple to use in clinical settings for the prediction of the risk of irreversible worsening of cardiac function.
Methods
A total of 871 ADHF patients were enrolled in this study. Data for each patient were collected from the medical records. Irreversible worsening of cardiac function included cardiac death within 30 days of patient hospitalization, implantation of a left ventricular assistance device, or emergency heart transplantation. We performed LASSO regression for variable selection to derive a multivariable logistic regression model. Five candidate predictors were selected to derive the final prediction model. The prediction model was verified using C-statistics, calibration curve, and decision curve. 
Results
Irreversible worsening of cardiac function occurred in 7.8% of the patients. Advanced age, NYHA class, high blood urea nitrogen, hypoalbuminemia, and vasopressor use were its strongest predictors. The prediction model showed good discrimination C-statistic value, 0.866 (95% CI, 0.817–0.907), which indicated good identical calibration and clinical efficacy.
Conclusion
In this study, we developed a prediction model and nomogram to estimate the risk of irreversible worsening of cardiac function among ADHF patients. The findings may provide a reference for clinical physicians for detection of irreversible worsening of cardiac function and enable its prompt management.