ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Cardiovasc. Med.
Sec. Clinical and Translational Cardiovascular Medicine
Burden and Trends of Cardiovascular Diseases Attributable to High LDL-C in China, 1990–2021: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis with Projections to 2050
Provisionally accepted
- 1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Shenyang Medical College, Shenyang, China
- 2Shenyang Medical College, Shenyang, China
- 3School of Public Heath, Shenyang Medical College, Shenyang, China
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Objective: To analyze the changing trend of the burden of CVD caused by high LDL-C among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021, as well as the variations in CVD burden by age, period, and cohort, and to predict the trend of CVD burden in 2050, providing a reference for the formulation of CVD prevention strategies in China. Methods: Data on CVD caused by high LDL-C in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the GBD database. ASMR and ASDR were obtained to assess the burden of CVD. The Joinpoint model was used to calculate the AAPC of CVD burden and analyze the changing trends of disease burden by gender. The APC model was employed to explore the relationships among age, period, and cohort factors in CVD burden. The ARIMA model was applied to predict the trend of CVD burden in 2050. Results: In 2021, the total number of CVD deaths caused by high LDL-C in China reached 832,884.39, a significant increase of 194.37% compared to 1990. The burden of disease increased sharply with age from 1990 to 2021. The period effect showed that mortality and DALYs increased from 1990 to 2009 and then decreased after 2010. The cohort effect indicated that women born before 1940 had a higher burden, while the risk for men continued to rise after 1940. The ARIMA model's prediction indicates that by 2050, the ASMR of CVD caused by high LDL-C in China is expected to increase by 55.14%, and the ASDR will rise to 1873.18 per 100,000. Conclusion: The burden of CVD caused by high LDL-C in China increased overall from 1990 to 2021. The stratified results by gender indicated that the ASMR and ASDR of men were higher than those of women. Stratification by age showed that the burden was the greatest among people over 70 years old. This was mainly due to population growth, aging, and risk factors. The prediction shows that the disease burden will continue to rise until 2050, and men will remain a high-risk group.
Keywords: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, cardiovascular disease, age-period-cohort model, Disease Prediction, China
Received: 03 Sep 2025; Accepted: 11 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, Gao, Ren, Yu, Ren, Chao, Wu, Ma and Wang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Yudong Wu, 1505384499@qq.com
Mingyue Ma, ymacmu@163.com
Yu Wang, 18940116917@163.com
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