Deferred Climate-Related Migration

Abstract

Climate migration research often relies on a binary distinction between rapid-onset and slow-onset disasters to predict migration timing. Using original survey data from 1,534 households across Guatemala, I demonstrate that this framework oversimplifies temporal migration dynamics. Floods increase both internal migration plans (4.3 percentage points) and international migration plans (4.8 percentage points) two to seven years after exposure. In contrast, neither hurricanes nor droughts significantly affect migration plans during this timeframe, despite extensive research documenting their effects on other timelines. Migration networks prove critical as those who are exposed to floods with prior migration experience are fourteen times more likely to plan internal migration than those without. Building from these findings, I develop the deferred climate-related migration theory, which posits that floods create a unique temporal window for migration by being severe enough to signal persistent risk while also allowing for sufficient recovery to accumulate resources. This creates a deferral period wherein individuals decide that they will migrate, but take the time to increase their savings, activate social networks, and coordinate migration plans. The theory challenges assumptions that onset speed determines migration timing and demonstrates the need for disaster-specific approaches in climate adaptation policy.