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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Front. Earth Sci.</journal-id>
<journal-title>Frontiers in Earth Science</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="pubmed">Front. Earth Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
<issn pub-type="epub">2296-6463</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Frontiers Media S.A.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">929271</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3389/feart.2022.929271</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Earth Science</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Original Research</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>The intensification of coastal hypoxia off central Chile: Long term and high frequency variability</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running-head">De La Maza and Far&#xed;as</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running-head">
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.929271">10.3389/feart.2022.929271</ext-link>
</alt-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>De La Maza</surname>
<given-names>Lucas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1759549/overview"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name>
<surname>Far&#xed;as</surname>
<given-names>Laura</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c001">&#x2a;</xref>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/410076/overview"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
<institution>Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR),<sup>2</sup>
</institution> <institution>University of Chile</institution>, <addr-line>Santiago</addr-line>, <country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
<institution>Instituto Milenio de Socio-Ecolog&#xed;a Costera (SECOS)</institution>, <addr-line>Santiago</addr-line>, <country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
<institution>Departamento de Oceanograf&#xed;a</institution>, <institution>Universidad de Concepci&#xf3;n</institution>, <addr-line>Concepci&#xf3;n</addr-line>, <country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
<institution>Millennium Nucleus Understanding Past Coastal Upwelling Systems and Environmental Local and Lasting Impacts (UPWELL)</institution>, <institution>ANID Millennium Science Initiative</institution>, <addr-line>Coquimbo</addr-line>, <country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<author-notes>
<fn fn-type="edited-by">
<p>
<bold>Edited by:</bold> <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/455785/overview">Claudio Latorre</ext-link>, Pontificia Universidad Cat&#xf3;lica de Chile, Chile</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="edited-by">
<p>
<bold>Reviewed by:</bold> <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1891102/overview">Cristina Schultz</ext-link>, Princeton University, United States</p>
<p>
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/541302/overview">Taavi Liblik</ext-link>, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia</p>
</fn>
<corresp id="c001">&#x2a;Correspondence: Laura Far&#xed;as, <email>laura.farias@udec.cl</email>
</corresp>
<fn fn-type="other">
<p>This article was submitted to Biogeoscience, a section of the journal Frontiers in Earth Science</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>06</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<elocation-id>929271</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>26</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2022</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>15</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright &#xa9; 2023 De La Maza and Far&#xed;as.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2023</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>De La Maza and Far&#xed;as</copyright-holder>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.</p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<p>Hypoxia is a phenomenon where dissolved oxygen (DO) is reduced to levels that are low enough to strongly affect ecological and biogeochemical processes. This occurs within the continental shelf off central Chile (36&#xb0;S), influenced by seasonal coastal upwelling (Spring-Summer). Monthly measurements of DO and other oceanographic variables in the water column (1997&#x2212;2021) over the 92&#xa0;m isobath along with high-resolution and near-surface observations (POSAR buoy), are analyzed to examine incidences of hypoxia and understand the physical and biogeochemical processes modulating DO vertical distribution and its temporal variability. On average, the percentage of the water column with DO levels below 89 (hypoxia) and 22 (severe hypoxia)&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> reaches 68% (i.e., hypoxic waters are found below 30&#xa0;m) and 44% (below 50&#xa0;m depth), respectively, but during the upwelling season, as much as 87% (below 12&#xa0;m depth) and 81% (below 17&#xa0;m depth) of the water column exhibits these levels. On the sub-seasonal scale during upwelling season six hypoxic events lasting at least 2&#xa0;days occur at 10&#xa0;m depth. There is a strong seasonal correlation between the volume of the seawater presenting hypoxia and upwelling favorable winds. Furthermore, there is a high DO interannual variability partially related to the El Ni&#xf1;o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Over 2&#xa0;decades, it is estimated that DO concentration in surface and subsurface layers decreases (up to 21&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> decade<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>) as waters get colder (up to 0.29&#xb0;C&#xa0;decade<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>). Remarkably, the volume of hypoxic and severe hypoxic waters over the shelf has increased more than 2 times since 1997 and shows a significant positive correlation with the upwelling index. These preliminary findings indicate that the increase in local DO consumption is partially associated with upwelling intensification. Given the clear evidence of wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems and thus the increase in hypoxic events, the coastal zone may be highly vulnerable to hypoxia, impacting biological resources and biogeochemical cycles.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>central Chile</kwd>
<kwd>marine hypoxia</kwd>
<kwd>time series</kwd>
<kwd>coastal upwelling</kwd>
<kwd>intra-seasonal</kwd>
<kwd>seasonal and inter-annual variability</kwd>
<kwd>decadal trend</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<sec id="s1">
<title>1 Introduction</title>
<p>DO plays a key role within the ocean, being one of the most important variables influencing the distributions and abundances of pelagic and benthic organisms (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">D&#xed;az and Rosenberg, 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B80">Pitcher et al., 2014</xref>). Hypoxia is becoming more prevalent in the oceans, due to a process known as deoxygenation, which is altering the marine life equilibrium (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">Breitburg et al., 2018</xref>), leading to mass strandings of organisms that are sensitive to low DO levels and in turn favoring low DO tolerant species. Changes in DO levels lead to shifts in organism distribution, community structure and therefore biodiversity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B116">Vaquer-Sunyer and Duarte, 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B104">Steckbauer et al., 2011</xref>).</p>
<p>In this research, the term &#x201c;hypoxia&#x201d; is used to describe DO concentrations of less than 89&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> (&#x223c; 33% saturation for S and T around 34&#xb0;C and 11&#xb0;C, respectively), whereas &#x201c;severe hypoxia&#x201d; is considered to describe DO concentrations of less than 22&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> (&#x223c; 8% saturation). At hypoxic levels, there is evidence of acute effects on metazoan organisms, such as mass mortality events in fish (Hern&#xe1;ndez-Miranda et al., 2010, 2012); and of chronic effects, including changes in life cycles and population dynamics (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B51">Hern&#xe1;ndez-Miranda et al., 2012</xref>). These changes produce shifts in community structure and ecosystem function (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B18">Chu and Tunnicliffe, 2015</xref>).</p>
<p>Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) represent large regions of the coastal ocean that are naturally affected by hypoxia (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B67">Monteiro et al., 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B80">Pitcher et al., 2014</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B79">2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B37">Garc&#xed;a-Reyes et al., 2015</xref>). Strong winds along the western continental coastlines combined with the Earth&#x2019;s rotation, transport surface waters offshore, leading to the shoaling of cold subsurface waters, with low DO near the coast; a process known as wind-driven upwelling. These waters are nutrient rich and sustain high primary production and biological diversity that are essential for fisheries and other economic activities (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B78">Pauly and Christensen 1995</xref>). Extensive areas of hypoxia and anoxia exist due to the transport of preexisting oxygen-deficient waters, local remineralization of OM associated with high primary production, and reduced ventilation in sub thermocline waters (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">Helly and Levin, 2004</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Paulmier and Ruiz-Pino, 2009</xref>). Hypoxia dynamics on continental shelves, such as its intensity and extent, are due to changes in remotely forced source water and local upwelling wind forcing (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B117">Walsh, 1991</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B68">Monteiro et al., 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">Chan et al., 2019</xref>), which in turn affect primary productivity and respiration. Observed and projected changes in these forcing mechanisms require further research into the dominance of physical or biogeochemical dynamics in long term variability (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B124">Fennel and Testa, 2019</xref>). Physical factors include the along-shelf transport of different source waters, with varying proportions and characteristics (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B125">Mohrholz et al. 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B127">Bograd et al., 2019</xref>). Furthermore, there is the intensity and frequency of upwelling favorable wind events which interact with the geomorphologic features and size of continental shelves that lead to the resulting water circulation. Biogeochemical factors include DO consumption through aerobic respiration of OM and other chemolithotrophic processes and if eutrophication is significant (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008</xref>).</p>
<p>Long-term records indicate that ocean warming reduces gas solubility (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">Keeling et al., 2010</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B105">Stramma et al., 2012</xref>). Projections in deoxygenation reflect the combined effects of reduced DO solubility and reducedventilation from increased stratification due to radiative heating of the surface layer and circulation changes (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B92">Schmittner et al., 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">Fr&#xf6;licher et al., 2009</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B73">Oschlies et al., 2018</xref>). In addition, deoxygenation is dependent on trends in phytoplankton abundance, as may be the case in coastal systems or gyres subjected to eutrophication or desertification, respectively. There, several biological mechanisms are linked to changes in turbulent mixing/stratification, the size of phytoplankton (its export towards sediments) and zooplankton grazing rate (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B26">Edwards and Richardson, 2004</xref>). In addition, a reduction in DO due to the effect of ocean acidification on biological processes may occur (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Oschlies et al., 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B52">Hofmann and Schellnehuber, 2009</xref>).</p>
<p>The Humboldt current system (HCS) is an important region with pre-existing and relatively shallow oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) associated with equatorial subsurface waters (ESSW) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B113">Thiel et al., 2007</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Chavez and Messi&#xe9;, 2009</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">Fuenzalida et al., 2009</xref>) combined with wind driven upwelling promotes high primary production leading to an increase in local DO consumption (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Paulmier and Ruiz-Pino 2009</xref>). At mid latitudes in the HCS, a pronounced seasonal cycle modulates coastal upwelling, with the upwelling season lasting from spring into early autumn (April), whereas much weaker upwelling or downwelling dominates in late autumn and winter. This pronounced seasonality is caused by the latitudinal migration of the Southeast Pacific Anticyclone (SPA) off the coast of central Chile. Specifically, the EBUS off central Chile is expected to exhibit changes in its timing, intensity and the spatial distribution of alongshore winds (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B119">Wang et al., 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Aguirre et al., 2018</xref>). This intensification has been associated with two mechanisms: the strengthening and southwards migration of the SPA (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B6">Ancapich&#xfa;n and Garc&#xe9;s-Vargas, 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B93">Schneider et al., 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Aguirre et al., 2018</xref>), as well as the intensification of the gradients in atmospheric pressure, between continental lows and oceanic highs, known as the Bakun effect (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">Bakun, 1990</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B131">Bakun et al., 2015</xref>).</p>
<p>Under different climate change scenarios, the strengthening and expansion of the SPA is expected to continue, along with its poleward migration (e.g., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B12">Belmadani et al., 2014</xref>) due to the poleward expansion of the Hadley cell (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B55">Hu and Fu, 2007</xref>) and climate models indicate that global warming will continue to cause changes to the SPA and upwelling-favorable winds in the upcoming decades, as indicated by the <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">IPCC (2019)</xref>. Similar result are found by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B10">Bakun et al. (2010)</xref> whom predicted that changes in wind patterns would influence the intensity of upwelling and therefore DO distribution. Only two long-term records of DO exist in the HCS, which allow for the investigation and reporting of variability in local or remote mechanisms able to intensify hypoxia. One of these records identifies a deoxygenation trend in the upper part of the nearshore OMZ off Peru between 1970&#x2013;2008 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">Espinoza-Morriber&#xf3;n et al., 2021</xref>) that trend is attributed primarily to the deceleration of the oxygen-rich equatorial eastward currents, rather than to local forcing from upwelling-favorable winds.</p>
<p>The overall impacts of hypoxia and severe hypoxia in areas of coastal upwelling are unclear, and the severity and potential threats of these events depend on the projected regional and global climatic scenarios (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22">Deutsch et al., 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B128">Oschlies, 2021</xref>). This study aims to contribute knowledge to the regional climatic scenario using one of the two long term observational time series that exist within this region along with high frequency surface observations, by analyzing DO variability from days/weeks to decadal scales, along with other oceanographic variables in the continental shelf off central Chile, and to infer what are the possible physical mechanisms driving these changes.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="materials|methods" id="s2">
<title>2 Materials and methods</title>
<sec id="s2-1">
<title>2.1 Oceanographic setting</title>
<p>The HCS is characterized by its large extension along the Peruvian and Chilean coast (5&#x2013;45&#xb0;S), with several coastal upwelling centers driven by along shore winds, and seasonality that&#x27;s partially associated with the oscillation of the SPA (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B106">Strub et al., 1998</xref>). Equatorial Subsurface Water (ESSW), transported by the poleward subsurface Peru-Chile Undercurrent (PCUC), is characterized by a pronounced DO deficit and high nutrient levels, being the main source of water for the wind-driven coastal upwelling (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B123">Wooster and Gilmartin, 1961</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">Fuenzalida et al., 2009</xref>). South of 28&#xb0;S, the surface of the equatorward Humboldt Current is fed mainly by Subantarctic waters (SAAW), which, by contrast, has relatively low salinity and nutrients and high oxygenation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B96">Silva et al., 2009</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B62">Llanillo et al., 2012</xref>). In addition, the HCS is among the most productive marine ecosystems worldwide, with annual mean net primary production rates of 1.1&#xa0;kg&#xa0;C&#xa0;m<sup>&#x2212;2</sup>&#xa0;yr<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">Daneri et al., 2000</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B112">Testa et al., 2018</xref>) which sustains the productive pelagic fisheries in Chile (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">Cubillos et al., 1998</xref>). Furthermore, high availability of OM stimulates its mineralization in bottom waters and sediment leading to DO consumption (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">Far&#xed;as et al., 2015</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2-2">
<title>2.2 Sampling</title>
<p>A time, series station at a fixed location (36&#xb0;308&#x2032; S, 73&#xb0;07.75&#x2032; W) off central Chile with 92&#xa0;m depth (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure 1</xref>), discrete samples at different depths (2, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50, 65, 80&#xa0;m) were taken and continuous profiles were recorded from 1997 to present. This time series station is called station 18 (hereafter TST18) due to its distance from the coast being 18 nautical miles. The TST18 has been visited monthly since 2002 and quarterly from 1997 to 2002. A CTD device was used (conductivity, temperature and depth), model SBE-25 and SBE 19plus with various sensors to measure DO, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and fluorescence. Calibrations for CTD sensors were annually performed by the manufacturer (Sea-Bird) and CTD data were processed using SeaBird data processing software. In addition, post-processing conductivity and DO validation was done using <italic>in-situ</italic> salinity (salinometer AUTOSAL model 8400B) and DO measurements. Discrete seawater sampling was conducted using a rosette sampler, mounted with 10-L Niskin bottles. Samples of DO (in 125&#xa0;ml iodimetric bottles, immediately fixed with Winkler reagents) were analyzed by the Winkler method using an automatic AULOX measurement system.</p>
<fig id="F1" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 1</label>
<caption>
<p>Map of the study area with the three sampling stations, Station 18 used for monthly CTD, oxygen and nutrients profiles. POSAR is a fixed buoy carrying out high frequency surface and 10&#xa0;m sampling of oceanographic and atmospheric variables. Carriel Sur is a meteorological station capturing hourly wind data. Contours represent isobaths and color data is 1 &#xd7; 1&#xa0;km Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data from the Multi-scale Ultra-high Resolution (MUR) SST Analyses from 1 January 2021 (Dataset accessed [2021&#x2013;12-01] at <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5067/GHGMR-4FJ04">https://doi.org/10.5067/GHGMR-4FJ04</ext-link>).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-10-929271-g001.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>The continuous high-frequency oceanographic and meteorological data used in this research was recorded by a POSAR buoy, an automated monitoring meteo-oceanographic buoy located close to Coliumo Bay (Chile) about 10&#xa0;km from the mouth of the Itata River 144 (36.4&#xb0;S&#x2013;72.9&#xb0;W), at a depth of about 50&#xa0;m (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure 1</xref>) and close to the TSS18. This POSAR buoy was operative during two consecutive upwelling seasons (austral spring-summer). POSAR data is freely available in real-time at the CR2 (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.cr2.cl/posar">www.cr2.cl/posar</ext-link>) and CDOM web portals (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.cdom.cl/">www.cdom.cl</ext-link>). High frequency DO, temperature and salinity measurements came from a Microcat CTD-DO (SBE 37-SMP-ODO) sensor located at 10&#xa0;m depth, transmitting high frequency and real time oceanographic data. While wind measurements came from an ultrasonic anemometer (MM86106). Data analysis and interpretation for the DO sensor and others at 1&#xa0;m depth and technical details of the sensors/instruments forming the POSAR buoy are available in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">Aguirre et al. (2021a)</xref> and in <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.cr2.cl/posar">www.cr2.cl/posar</ext-link>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2-3">
<title>2.4 Data analyses</title>
<p>In this study, the analysis of DO variability is based on profiles obtained by the CTDO; discrete Winckler DO measurements were used to validate CTDO, and there was a significant positive correlation between both types of measurements. Wind speed and direction based on an hourly register were obtained from a permanent meteorological station located at Carriel Sur (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.meteochile.gob.cl/">http://www.meteochile.gob.cl/</ext-link>) close to the continental shelf off central Chile (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure 1</xref>). This station meets international standards and it is established as a coastal station. Meteorological data (daily average) were compared with daily satellite wind fields, averaged every 6&#xa0;h and interpolated linearly from 0.25&#xb0; to 0.05&#xb0;. Two products related to satellite observations were sourced from Copernicus marine service (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://resources.marine.copernicus.eu/">https://resources.marine.copernicus.eu/</ext-link>). The wind speeds taken from satellite data significantly correlated with those from the weather station, however the wind speed records from satellite data were 30% higher than those from the weather station (Faundez, unpublished data); thus, for conservative criteria, the data from Carrier sur weather station was used.</p>
<p>Alongshore or equatorward wind component (v &#x3d; m&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>) was calculated from the wind magnitude (&#x7c;V&#x7c; &#x3d; m&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>) and direction (dd) converted to radians, as follows;<disp-formula id="equ1">
<mml:math id="m1">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">v</mml:mi>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x2212;</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfenced open="|" close="|" separators="|">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">V</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfenced>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x2217;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">cos</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x2061;</mml:mo>
<mml:mtext mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x2009;</mml:mtext>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfenced open="(" close=")" separators="|">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">d</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">d</mml:mi>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x2217;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>&#x3c0;</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>180</mml:mn>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfenced>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</disp-formula>
</p>
<p>The upwelling index (UI; m<sup>&#x2212;3</sup>&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>) from 2002 to 2021 was obtained through Ekman zonal transport per 1,000&#xa0;m of coastline (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">Bakun, 1973</xref>), as:<disp-formula id="equ2">
<mml:math id="m2">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">U</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">I</mml:mi>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfenced open="(" close=")" separators="|">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">&#x3c4;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">y</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">&#x3c1;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">f</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfenced>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x2217;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1000</mml:mn>
<mml:mtext mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x2009;</mml:mtext>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">m</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</disp-formula>
</p>
<p>where <italic>&#x3c4;</italic>
<sub>
<italic>y</italic>
</sub> (Pa; kg&#xa0;m<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;2</sup>) is the mean wind stress meridional component within box 73&#x2013;74&#xba;W, 36&#x2013;39&#xba;S, <italic>&#x3c1;</italic> represents the mean density of the water column at TST18 (1,026.2&#xa0;kg&#xa0;m<sup>&#x2212;3</sup>), and <italic>f</italic> indicates the Coriolis parameter corresponding to the latitude at ST18 (8.67 &#x2a;10<sup>&#x2013;5</sup>&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>). Daily stress (<inline-formula id="inf1">
<mml:math id="m3">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x3c4;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>y</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>; N&#xa0;m<sup>&#x2212;2</sup>) was calculated following <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B72">Nelson (1977)</xref>:<disp-formula id="equ3">
<mml:math id="m4">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x3c4;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">y</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">C</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">d</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">&#xb7;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">&#x3c1;</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">a</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">i</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">r</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">&#xb7;</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfenced open="|" close="|" separators="|">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">V</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfenced>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">&#xb7;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">v</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</disp-formula>
</p>
<p>where <inline-formula id="inf2">
<mml:math id="m5">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>C</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the empirical static drag coefficient, corresponding to 0.0013 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Kraus et al., 1994</xref>), <inline-formula id="inf3">
<mml:math id="m6">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x3c1;</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>i</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the air density that corresponds to 0.00122&#xa0;g&#xa0;cm<sup>&#x2212;3</sup> or 1.22&#xa0;kg&#xa0;m<sup>&#x2212;3</sup>, <inline-formula id="inf4">
<mml:math id="m7">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfenced open="|" close="|" separators="|">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfenced>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the wind magnitude in m&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>, and <inline-formula id="inf5">
<mml:math id="m8">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>v</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the equatorward component of the wind in m&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>, A 5-day running mean was used to evaluate the cumulative alongshore wind stress, according to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B11">Barth and Menge, (2007)</xref>. Hypoxic volume (HV) was calculated as the hypoxic portion of an ideal cylinder of radius r&#x3d;100&#xa0;m and 80&#xa0;m depth, around the TST18 as follows:<disp-formula id="equ4">
<mml:math id="m9">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">H</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">v</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">o</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">l</mml:mi>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>10</mml:mn>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
<mml:mi>&#x3c0;</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfenced open="(" close=")" separators="|">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>80</mml:mn>
<mml:mo mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x2212;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">Z</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfenced open="[" close="]" separators="|">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">h</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">y</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">p</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">o</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">x</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">i</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">c</mml:mi>
<mml:mtext mathvariant="sans-serif">&#x2009;</mml:mtext>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">i</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">s</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">o</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">l</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">i</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">n</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif-italic">e</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfenced>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfenced>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</disp-formula>
</p>
<p>In this study a hypoxia event is defined as DO levels reaching below 89&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> for two or more days of duration. It is based on an analysis of a hypoxic event at the Gulf of Trieste (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B101">Stachowitsch, 1991</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B102">1984</xref>), where 2&#xa0;days of hypoxic conditions could cause a reduction in metazoan biomass to less than 25% of the initial conditions; other physiological effects are pointed out by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B126">Diaz and Rosenberg (1995)</xref> at those DO concentrations; this value serves as a rough reference as to how different taxa respond and adapt to hypoxic conditions.</p>
<p>Mean annual cycles (referred to as climatology) of the variables at TST18 were calculated using monthly averages across the time series. To quantify the deviation from the mean annual cycle, the former was subtracted from the observed data for each corresponding month of the cycle, thus obtaining the anomaly, defined as the difference in measuring units from the long-term average annual cycle.</p>
<p>Regarding interannual variability, ENSO and oceanic episodes of El Ni&#xf1;o (EN) and La Ni&#xf1;a (LN) were detected using two indexes, the Oceanic Ni&#xf1;o Index (ONI) which is based on the temperature anomaly along the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean (3.4 region 5&#xb0;N&#x2013;5&#xb0;S, 120&#xb0;&#x2013;170&#xb0;W) and the coastal El Ni&#xf1;o index (ICEN) which is based on the temperature anomaly off the coast of Ecuador and Per&#xfa; (1 &#x2b; 2 region 90&#xb0;&#x2212;80&#xb0;W, 10&#xb0;S&#x2013;0&#xb0;). In both cases, low negative and positive values indicate an LN and EN episodes, respectively, (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B110">Takahashi et al., 2014</xref>). The data was obtained from <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php">https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php</ext-link> for ONI and from <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://met.igp.gob.pe/datos/icen.txt">http://met.igp.gob.pe/datos/icen.txt</ext-link>. For ICEN.</p>
<p>Monthly time series for anomalies of temperature, salinity and DO were used to determine the decadal trends using a least squares linear model fit over 6&#xa0;month averages of the original time series. Trends were grouped by pre-defined averages over depth layers including surface-layer (0&#x2013;10&#xa0;m), lower-surface (15&#x2013;20&#xa0;m), mid-layer (30&#x2013;50&#xa0;m), and deep-layer (65&#x2013;80&#xa0;m). Correlations between DO and wind stress anomalies were performed at different phase lags (0&#x2013;4&#xa0;days) to determine the best correlation between wind and the oceanographic variables.</p>
<p>High-frequency measurements of temperature, salinity and DO from the POSAR buoy were analyzed to quantify the variability occurring at the daily to weekly time scales (from now on referred to as high-frequency) and to quantify error and lost data in observed patterns when compared to a monthly sampling frequency at TST18. Pearson correlations between DO and wind stress were performed at different phase lags to estimate the optimum high frequency correlation of these two variables and to assess the effects of upwelling on surface DO levels.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="results|discussion" id="s3">
<title>3 Results and discussion</title>
<p>This study describes and analyzes observed temporal variability in oceanographic variables, focused on monthly DO measurements from over 23&#xa0;years. This time frame is sufficient to detect some inter-annual variability and decadal trends. Additionally, high frequency DO observations are obtained from the POSAR buoy.</p>
<sec id="s3-1">
<title>3.1 Meteorological and hydrological drivers</title>
<p>Throughout the study period, the weather station recorded daily wind speeds of between 0.6 &#xb1; 0.7&#xa0;m&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> (means&#xb1;SD) and 13.3 &#xb1; 1.6&#xa0;m&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> (means&#xb1;SD), while the alongshore (northward or equatorward) component of wind speed fluctuated from &#x2212;12.8 to 10.7&#xa0;m&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2A</xref> shows the meridional component of daily wind stress from 2001 to 2021, which ranges between &#x2212;0.30 and 0.19&#xa0;N&#xa0;m<sup>&#x2212;2</sup>. These winds are stronger and more frequent during austral spring-summer peaking around December-January, whereas a weakening or even inversion of the predominant winds occurs during late autumn-winter. In the latter period, wind stress is more variable than in the upwelling seasons (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figures 2A, B</xref>).</p>
<fig id="F2" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 2</label>
<caption>
<p>
<bold>(A)</bold> Equatorwards Wind Stress with 5&#xa0;days smoothing (black line) and 90&#xa0;days smoothing (cyan line), the red segmented line represents the trend <bold>(B)</bold> Equatorwards wind stress mean seasonal cycle (climatology) and <bold>(C)</bold> Cumulative Wind stress along the mean seasonal cycle.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-10-929271-g002.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>The annual cycle of wind reveals the predominance of upwelling favorable winds from August to April (70% of the year) with a maximum monthly mean of 0.022&#xa0;N&#xa0;m<sup>&#x2212;2</sup> in January; (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2B</xref>). By contrast, between May and July, negative or close to zero stress values (&#x2212;0.0014&#xa0;N&#xa0;m<sup>&#x2212;2</sup> July) are dominant. Cumulative upwelling-favorable wind stress shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2C</xref> Indicates a rapid accumulation from spring to summer, which varies between different years, mainly in winter and springtime (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2C</xref>). The climatology of the UI ranges from 25.15&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> in April to 249.66&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> in January.</p>
<p>On the continental shelf off central Chile, coastal upwelling events influence the vertical distribution of the physical and chemical properties in seawater, as shown in the vertical sections of temperature, salinity, DO (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3</xref>), Upwelling of subsurface waters is demonstrated by the shoaling of 12&#xb0;C isotherm in spring (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3A</xref>), reaching its shallowest depth during mid-summer (&#x3c;10&#xa0;m depth in January). Salinity also shows seasonal patterns that correlate with the advective shoaling of isotherms. Low salinity is observed in a narrow surface layer (0&#x2013;15&#xa0;m) during winter and spring, which is associated with the Itata River discharge (plume) that reaches TST18, creating a notable haline stratification.</p>
<fig id="F3" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 3</label>
<caption>
<p>TST 18 Temperature <bold>(A)</bold>, salinity <bold>(B)</bold> and oxygen <bold>(C)</bold> hovm&#xf6;ller plots. For temperature, the 12&#xb0;C (continuous line) and 14&#xb0;C (dashed line) isotherms are highlighted. For salinity, the 35.5&#xa0;psu (continuous line) and 34.5&#xa0;psu (dashed line) isohalines are highlighted. For oxygen, the 2&#xa0;ml/L (continuous line) and 0.5&#xa0;ml/L (dashed line) isolines are highlighted, also a dashed red line marks 10&#xa0;m depth. Red dots correspond to dates at which profiles were interpolated from Winkler O<sub>2</sub> measurements.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-10-929271-g003.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>DO distribution in the water column (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3C</xref>) presents higher concentrations (&#x3e; 260&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>) in the upper (0&#x2013;15/20&#xa0;m depth) layer, however, subsurface and bottom layers exhibit strong seasonal variation due to the influence of the poorly oxygenated ESSW from coastal upwelling. During the upwelling season, as much as 87% and 81% of the water column exhibits DO concentrations under 89 and 22&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>, respectively. The average seasonal shoaling of hypoxic waters is strongly correlated with the UI (r &#x3d; 0.81, <italic>p</italic>&#x3c;0.05, n &#x3d; 12).</p>
<p>DO levels rapidly decline with the spring onset (around September) when upwelling-favorable winds increase (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2B</xref>) and poor oxygen (&#x3c; 44&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>) and nutrient rich ESSW is transported onto the continental shelf (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figures 3A</xref>, <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">4</xref>). During November-March, cumulative upwelling favourable wind stress has reached over half of its annual maximum (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figures 2A&#x2013;C</xref>), the average DO in the water column reaches 63%&#x2013;72% or 41%&#x2013;48% volume, with hypoxia and severe hypoxia, respectively. On the contrary, DO levels increase in April/May as upwelling-favorable wind weakens prior to the autumn transition. During winter, the persistence of poleward winds lead to downwelling of oxygenated SAAW (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B96">Silva et al., 2009</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B62">Llanillo et al., 2012</xref>) and storms (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B106">Strub et al., 1998</xref>) provoke an oxygenation of the water column on the continental shelf (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2A</xref>) through advective flushing and vertical mixing (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B98">Sobarzo et al., 2007</xref>). Maximum oxygenation is reached in July, where an average of 26% (2%) of the water column has DO concentrations under 89 (22)&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figures 3C</xref>, <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">4K</xref>).</p>
<fig id="F4" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 4</label>
<caption>
<p>Monthly climatology TST 18, monthly profiles for temperature (red, a&#x2013;d), salinity (yellow, e&#x2013;h) and oxygen (blue, i&#x2013;j), separated by seasons. Summer (DJF), autumn (MAM), winter (JJA), spring (SON).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-10-929271-g004.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-2">
<title>3.2 Vertical distribution of dissolved oxygen</title>
<p>Density, expressed as sigma-t, describes water mass structure and dynamics (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Supplementary Figure S2</xref>). Density is negatively correlated with DO (r &#x3d; &#x2212;0.59; <italic>p</italic>&#x3c;0.05, n &#x3d; 2,209), which means that denser waters contain less DO. The water column at the sampling location consists of nutrient poor and oxygenated SAAW with a density (sigma-t) of approximately 25.6. The SAAW moves northwards through the HCS, whereas the ESSW, which forms at the equator is nutrient rich and DO poor, having a density (sigma-t) of approximately 26.2 and moves poleward by the PCUC (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B97">Silva and Neshyba, 1979</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B96">Silva et al., 2009</xref>). The DO content of the ESSW can be identified by projecting the 26.2 isopycnal over the DO time series (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Supplementary Figure S1</xref>), showing a clear association of this water mass with hypoxic waters.</p>
<p>
<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4</xref> shows the climatological monthly hydrographic profiles from TST18. Temperature transitioned from almost an entirely mixed water column in late fall/winter to a strong thermocline between 10 and 20&#xa0;m depth in spring/summer (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4A</xref>). Salinity presents negligible depth differences in summer, except for a noticeable shallow (0&#x2013;15&#xa0;m depth) gradient during winter and spring (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4C</xref>). DO climatological profiles capture the seasonal development of the vertical distribution of hypoxia and severe hypoxia, along with temperature and salinity (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4C</xref>). The thermocline and oxycline shoal simultaneously in spring-summer. Vertical temperature gradients intensify between December to March, when a thin surface layer becomes warmer (with values up to 15&#xb0;C), caused by increased radiative heating during this season. This is contrasted with the upwelling of cool subsurface water from the ESSW, creating a marked thermal stratification. By contrast, low salinity waters are detected in a thin surface layer between June to October, which coincides with high precipitation and river runoff (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figures 4G, H</xref>). Moreover, a low salinity area is associated with the Itata River plume which creates notable haline stratification in the winter (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B90">Sald&#xed;a et al., 2012</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B66">Masotti et al., 2018</xref>) but does not affect surface DO concentration in wintertime nor the decadal trends presented below.</p>
<p>DO concentration consistently decreases with depth; with maximum values in the mixed layer (&#x3e; 220&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>), reaching values below hypoxia and severe hypoxia at the subsurface and bottom layers throughout the year. However, vertical gradients and differences between the surface and the bottom layers vary between unfavorable and favorable upwelling periods. High DO values throughout the entire water column (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figures 4I&#x2013;L</xref>) correspond to periods of strong vertical mixing associated with winter storms, and dominance of the SAAW. On the contrary, during the spring and summer, the oxycline intensifies and becomes shallower as coastal upwelling progresses (September to March). This seasonal variability in DO levels agrees in part with <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B82">Pizarro-Koch et al. (2019)</xref>, describing model derived estimates with a minimum (maximum) hypoxic volume in winter (Summer), attributed to the advection of offshore waters depleted in DO associated with the ESSW and transported by the PCUC. This is supported by observations from TST18, as shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Supplementary Figure S2</xref>, where the boundary of hypoxic waters is associated with the isopycnal (sigma-t &#x3d; 26.2) in the ESSW. Also, low DO may be caused by DO consumption through the oxidation of OM, which is exported from the surface and accumulated close to and in the sediment throughout the upwelling period (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">Far&#xed;as et al., 2004</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-3">
<title>3.3 High-frequency, intraseasonal and interannual DO variability</title>
<p>The development of hypoxia and severe hypoxia displays high-frequency, intra-seasonal and interannual variability (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3C</xref>). High-frequency variability is superimposed on the seasonally varying winds, caused by the eastward passage of cyclonic storms (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B87">Rahn and Garreaud, 2013</xref>) and poleward propagating coastal lows (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">Garreaud et al., 2002</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">Garreaud and Rutllant, 2003</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">Aguirre et al., 2021b</xref>). Variability with 3&#x2013;12&#xa0;days fluctuations lead to active and less-active upwelling events (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B5">Aguirre et al., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">2021a</xref>). Other intraseasonal processes affecting the water column include coastally trapped waves and other phenomena, such as eddies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">Hormazabal et al., 2002</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81">Pizarro et al., 2002</xref>). Annual variability of most oceanographic and biogeochemical variables is attributed to the ENSO cycle, which is the primary process that induces interannual variability in the HCS (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">Hormazabal et al., 2002</xref>, 2006).</p>
<p>Previous long-term studies on the PCUC along the continental slope (30&#xb0;S) state that coastal trapped waves control intraseasonal variability in the OMZ, whereas Rossby waves provide a physical mechanism that lead to significant fraction of seasonal (annual cycle) DO variability off central Chile. Both physical mechanisms originate from equatorial wind forcing (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">Hormazabal et al., 2002</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81">Pizarro et al., 2002</xref>). However, this study doesn&#x27;t consider how different types of wave interactions are affected by local forcing, such as local winds, river discharges, topographic and geomorphological features and pelagic benthic coupling mechanisms, among others.</p>
<sec id="s3-3-1">
<title>3.3.1 The effect of intra-seasonal variability on DO</title>
<p>The seasonal reduction in DO may slow or reverse due to intra-seasonal along-shore wind reversal events (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5">Figure 5</xref>). The average seasonal shoaling cycle of hypoxic waters is strongly correlated with the annual UI cycle (r&#x3d;0.81; <italic>p</italic>&#x3c;0.05, n&#x3d; 12) as it is with equatorward wind stress. However, seasonal anomalies in hypoxic volume are not significantly correlated with UI and thus weaken the relationship between UI and DO &#x3c; 89&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> isoline depth for the time-series over seasonal scales (3&#xa0;months smoothing) (r &#x3d; 0.37; <italic>p</italic>&#x3c;0.05, n &#x3d; 219) (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figure 6</xref>). These intra-seasonal anomalies that do not appear to be correlated with UI might be caused by strong high-frequency scale variability that&#x27;s undetected due to the sampling frequency at TST18 (discussed below in the POSAR section).</p>
<fig id="F5" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 5</label>
<caption>
<p>Smoothed (24 h window) high frequency oxygen and equatorwards wind stress variability from POSAR from November 2016 to April 2017 (a,b), and November 2017 to May 2018 (c,d) sampling periods, a moving average of 2 days is applied. Secondary <italic>x</italic> axis lines represent 2 day steps. Red bars represent hypoxic (under 2 ml/l) events that last for 2 or more days.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-10-929271-g005.tif"/>
</fig>
<fig id="F6" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 6</label>
<caption>
<p>
<bold>(A)</bold> ICEN El ni&#x00F1;o index with yellow and blue boxes highlighting El Ni&#x00F1;o and La Ni&#x00F1;a events of interest. <bold>(B&#x2013;D)</bold> are temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen anomalies respectively.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-10-929271-g006.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>For TST18, daily averages of equatorward wind stress are weakly correlated with DO, temperature, and salinity anomalies at 10&#xa0;m depth. The optimum correlation occurred with a 2-day lag, which indicates the time that&#x27;s needed for the upwelling signal peak, shown by the maximum shoaling of DO isolines, to reach the location of the TST18 at 18&#xa0;nm from the coast. For DO, correlation values range from r &#x3d; &#x2212;0.09 to &#x2212;0.17 when it is statistically significant. On average, the correlations with salinity and temperature are higher, being r &#x3d; 0.12 to 22 and from 0.15 to to 24, respectively (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s10">Supplementary Table S2</xref>).</p>
<p>Sub-seasonal variability is difficult to understand due to relatively low frequency monthly sampling. Furthermore, depending on its amplitude, it may add a significant amount of error on a similar scale to seasonal variability. Considering this, an analysis of data from the POSAR buoy during two upwelling favorable periods (2016&#x2013;2017 and 2017&#x2013;2018) is used to understand if a monthly sampling frequency is appropriate to capture a detailed account of DO variability. A total of 12 surface events of shallow hypoxia (i.e., &#x3e;2&#xa0;days below 89&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> at 10&#xa0;m) are identified during the sampling period, with six events taking place during 2016&#x2013;2017 and another six events in 2017&#x2013;2018, with varying levels of intensity. These results agree with those reported by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">Aguirre et al. (2021a)</xref>, where surface variability at 1&#xa0;m depth is analyzed. On average, they found that DO shows the best correlation with UI 24&#x2013;36&#xa0;h after the onset of an upwelling favorable event. At 10&#xa0;m depth (often coincident with the base of the mixed layer in summer), alongshore wind stress and DO are most correlated with a lag of &#x223c;30&#xa0;h (r &#x3d; &#x2212;0.28; <italic>p</italic>&#x3c;.05; n &#x3d; 7779). There is an increased range in the sub-seasonal variability, with a standard deviation of &#xb1;60&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>. These high amplitude fluctuations are related to a strong equatorward wind, suggesting that upwelling is the main forcing mechanism. At this scale of variability, other mechanisms may also alter DO vertical distribution, such as turbulent mixing and coastally trapped waves (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B69">Morales et al., 1999</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B115">Ulloa et al., 2001</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B34">Frieder et al., 2012</xref>). This could be the case for the inner shelf or even the waters associated with the coastline (e.g., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B49">Hern&#xe1;ndez and Tapia, 2021</xref>).</p>
<p>These results highlight that high frequency processes lead to greater variability within the monthly data, as it is possible to capture extreme events that may not be a true representation of the mean monthly conditions, potentially leading to high anomalies. Thus, it is considered that monthly DO anomalies should be interpreted as being subject to an error superimposed by high-frequency and intra-seasonal variability, the higher the variability at this scale, the more likely it is to overestimate anomalies in the monthly time-series.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-3-2">
<title>3.3.2 Interannual variability and ENSO cycle (El Ni&#xf1;o)</title>
<p>Significant variability between annual cycles for different years are shown in Figures 7A, B. For example, during winter season high ventilation occurs, leading to DO concentrations reaching above the hypoxic threshold throughout most of the water column. This, however, shows high interannual variability with years with less ventilation, when near bottom waters do not get oxygenated and are exposed to hypoxic conditions throughout the year, in some cases having up to 50% (18%) of the column at levels below 89 (22)&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>, and as a result the these waters remain under this limit for extended periods of time, as is the case for the 1997&#x2013;99; 2002&#x2013;04; 2008&#x2013;09; 2013&#x2013;15, and 2018&#x2013;19 periods. The same is true for summer, where typically the deeper 40% and 65% of the water column is subject to severe hypoxia and hypoxia respectively. During especially strong upwelling periods, however, hypoxia and severe hypoxia can occupy almost the whole water column (&#x3e; 80%) reaching up to 10&#xa0;m depth as is the case for 2001, 2011, 2015&#x2013;2018. In contrast, there are the Summers of 1998, 1999, 2003, 2009, 2014, and 2016 where hypoxic waters remained below 20&#xa0;m depth (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3C</xref>).</p>
<p>Most anomalies are related to advective processes, as salinity and temperature are inversely correlated (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figures 6B, C</xref>). DO is less responsive than other variables as it also has a significant biological component as well as being regulated by physical processes, especially above the thermocline (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figure 6D</xref>). However, under 10&#xa0;m depth, density and DO are strongly correlated (r &#x3d; &#x2212;0.8; <italic>p</italic>&#x3c;.05; n &#x3d; 1,551), suggesting that changes in DO at any given depth are probably associated with shifts in the depths of isotherms/isohalines, this association is stronger at mid-depths where the pycnocline is typically located (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s10">Supplementary Figure S2D</xref>). Salinity also shows high interannual variation at the surface due to annual fluctuations in freshwater input from precipitation and/or river discharge (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B89">Sald&#xed;as et al., 2016</xref>). Moreover, there is a marked reduction in the discharge of fresh water from the rivers of the central region of Chile, due to a decade-long (2010&#x2013;2018) drought with a reduction of 20%&#x2013;45% in rainfall in central and southern Chile (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">Garreaud et al., 2020</xref>).</p>
<p>Three notably strong EN events have occurred during our study period; an extreme event in 1997&#x2013;98, the &#x201c;Godzilla&#x201d; in 2015&#x2013;2016, and the 2017 coastal EN, all of which are registered among the 10 strongest events within the last century (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">Cai et al., 2015</xref>). Positive temperature anomalies correspond to these EN events, and neutral or positive DO anomalies at mid to bottom depths. This is evident during the 1997&#x2013;98 and 2015&#x2013;16 events that respond during the peak of ICEN index, whereas for the last event the strongest response for all three variables occurs during the autumn of 2017. During the first two events, a deeper 12&#xb0;C isotherm and 26.2 isopycnal during spring-summer, similar to that of the average winter depth are observed (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figure 6A</xref>). However, the 2017 event does not show this pattern, possibly due to the lack of the downwelling Kelvin wave that usually arrives during EN events and propagates through the thermocline, thus acting at much shallower depths (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B109">Takahashi and Mart&#xed;nez, 2019</xref>).</p>
<p>In contrast, there are two negative phases or LN in 2007&#x2013;08 and 2013, which show an inverse pattern as expected; with negative DO anomalies throughout all depths (see <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figure 6</xref>). Despite ENSO being one of the most important remote forcing in the HCS, a correlation analysis of both EN indexes with DO at three selected depths (15, 50, 80&#xa0;m) shows only a weak correlation (r &#x3d; 0.17, n &#x3d; 219) with the ICEN index is observed at 50&#xa0;m (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s10">Supplementary Table S1</xref>). For example, the long-lasting event in the summer of 2015&#x2013;2016, known as the &#x201c;Godzilla EN&#x201d;, lacks oxygenation in the summer. This is unlike the extreme event in 1997&#x2013;98 and the coastal EN in 2017. It should be noted that weak to moderate correlations in temperature (ICEN r &#x3d;0.39&#x2013;0.5; ONI r &#x3d; 0.32&#x2013;0.51) exist, which increases over depth, and there is no statistically significant correlation with salinity (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s10">Supplementary Table S1</xref>). The observed oxygenation in the mid-layers is as expected, as the deepening of the thermocline during EN would have a stronger effect at depths where the ESSW is more prevalent throughout the year. Over this timescale of variability, the strongest signals in this time-series include non-seasonal high DO concentrations observed in fall-winter of 1997, 2005, 2006, 2011, 2012, 2017, and 2020, where the 89&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> isoline deepened below the maximum sampling depth and correlates with the deepening of the 12&#xb0;C isotherm and the 34.5 isohaline.</p>
<p>In the Peruvian OMZ, there are variations in the zonal current intensity in the Equatorial Undercurrent (mainly EUC), and changes in vertical water mass distributions during ENSO phases. This explains temporal and latitudinal changes of DO (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B61">Llanillo et al., 2013</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B129">Montes et al., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">Espinoza-Morriber&#xf3;n et al., 2019</xref>). However, physical and biogeochemical coupling differs between different EN regimes, and mechanisms are not yet clear. During the decade following the year 2,000, DO and nutrients in the water column respond variably and not linearly in relation to the ENSO oceanic teleconnection (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B42">Graco et al., 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">Espinoza-Morriber&#xf3;n et al., 2019</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B79">Pitcher et al., 2021</xref>). With data from 1996&#x2013;2012, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B42">Graco et al. (2017)</xref> detected an efficient oceanic mechanism observed through the distribution of DO and nutrients in the water column in central Peru. During this time the OMZ adjusted to conditions of Kelvin-wave-induced downwelling that stopped upwelling and led to an increased oxygenation and reducing nutrient availability; meanwhile after the year 2,000, mean upwelling conditions are maintained during a weak regime, associated with a moderate central Pacific EN event and enhanced equatorial Kelvin wave activity. That study does not capture the effect of the ENSO cycle in the last decade (after 2012), as these observations are taken from in central Chile, at 3,300&#xa0;km from equatorial zonal currents so it is assumed that different mechanisms of interaction are occurring, mainly linked to the Southern Ocean.</p>
<p>There is even less understanding about the transformation of DO and nutrients as the ESSW is transported southwards and the reduction in water mass renewal rates on a regional scale due to increased stratification caused by warmer or fresh surface waters. The intermediate depths of the Southeastern Pacific are occupied by two water masses that move in opposite directions and mix as they converge (i.e., the mentioned ESSW and Antarctic Intermediate Water &#x201c;AAIW&#x201d;). The AAIW is formed along the front of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and spreads equatorward along the 27.0&#x2013;27.1 isopycnal (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B111">Talley, 1999</xref>), it is rich in DO; thus capable to ventilate the lower limit of the OMZ (26.6 isopycnal) as the ESSW moves southward (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">Carrasco et al., 2017</xref>). However, changes in mechanisms and ventilation rates in the ESSW at mid latitudes are not known. Regarding the ventilation of the upper limit of OMZ, waters off northern and central Chile are characterized by the presence of a permanent minimum saline layer associated with Eastern South Pacific Intermediate Water (ESPIW; 40&#x2013;60&#xa0;m depth) that leads to a strong surface stratification (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B94">Schneider et al., 2003</xref>). This layer, together with the surface thermocline, produces a marked pycnocline, isolating the thin surface or mixing layer from the ESSW where a strong oxycline and the OMZ&#xb4;s core are located. Changes in the minimum saline layer that could affect oxygenation levels require further study, in addition to ventilation produced by the ENSO cycle or mesoscale phenomena (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">Espinoza-Morriber&#xf3;n et al., 2019</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B114">Trucco-Pignata et al., 2019</xref>).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-4">
<title>3.4 Long term variability: decadal trends</title>
<p>Understanding the DO regime and its long term response in different systems, helps to identify the key processes that it is controlled by, providing the knowledge base to predict potential changes under future climate change scenarios. <xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table 1</xref> presents the DO decadal trends in different ocean depth layers. Significant negative DO trends are observed in the lower surface and mid layers, of &#x2212;18.1 and &#x2212;21.97&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> decade<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> respectively, with a maximum rate of change in the lower surface layer at the location of the oxycline (just below the pycnocline). Also, the surface and bottom layers showed trends towards oxygen depletion, however not significant. The global average decrease in DO for the upper ocean (100&#x2013;1,000&#xa0;m depth) is estimated at &#x2212;0.93 &#xb1; 0.23&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> y<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> and DO depletion is higher in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">Helm et al., 2011</xref>). Approximately 15% of the global DO decrease is due to the reduced capacity for DO storage in a warmer mixed layer (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">Helm et al., 2011</xref>). However, this is not the case in central Chile where negative decadal trends in temperature (cooling) ranging from &#x2212;0.09 to &#x2212;.29&#xb0;C&#xa0;decade<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> are estimated and these rates of change increase towards the surface (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F8">Figure 8A</xref>). Also, the strongest reduction in DO is registered below the surface layer, and only the lower-surface and mid layer trends are statistically significant (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F8">Figure 8C</xref>). In addition, non-significant positive trends in salinity, between 0.01 and 0.04&#xa0;psu&#xa0;decade<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> occur throughout the water column (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F8">Figure 8B</xref>). These trends indicate that the over-accentuated decadal variation in the surface to mid layers with respect to the bottom layer (almost completely occupied by the ESSW) are probably not dominated by a change in the ESSW properties, but due to the shoaling of isotherms/isopycnals (i.e., increased vertical advection towards the (sub)surface layer) as equatorward winds strengthen and become more frequent shifting average conditions towards a more shallow ESSW. It is important to note that the decadal decrease in DO over several depths is not related to reduced DO solubility, but it is likely to be associated with changes in local wind forcing (see review <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B79">Pitcher et al., 2021</xref>). This is further supported by the long term data of DO levels. Below 89 and 22&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>, indicating a close relationship with UI, as shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure 7</xref>.</p>
<table-wrap id="T1" position="float">
<label>TABLE 1</label>
<caption>
<p>Temperature (&#xb0;C decade<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>), Oxygen (umol L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>&#xa0;decade<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>), Salinity (PSU decade<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>) linear trends over the sampling period 1997&#x2013;2021. All significant trends marked.</p>
</caption>
<table>
<thead valign="top">
<tr>
<th align="left">Layer</th>
<th align="left">Range</th>
<th align="left">T&#xb0;</th>
<th align="left">Salinity</th>
<th align="left">Oxygen</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">Surface</td>
<td align="left">0&#x2013;10&#xa0;m</td>
<td align="char" char=".">&#x2212;0.29&#x2a;</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.02</td>
<td align="left" char=".">&#x2212;11.64</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Lower Surface</td>
<td align="left">15&#x2013;20&#xa0;m</td>
<td align="char" char=".">&#x2212;0.23&#x2a;</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.04</td>
<td align="left" char=".">&#x2212;21.97&#x2a;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Mid</td>
<td align="left">30&#x2013;50&#xa0;m</td>
<td align="char" char=".">&#x2212;0.13</td>
<td align="char" char=".">&#x2212;0.01</td>
<td align="left" char=".">&#x2212;18.10&#x2a;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Bottom</td>
<td align="left">65&#x2013;80&#xa0;m</td>
<td align="char" char=".">&#x2212;0.09</td>
<td align="char" char=".">&#x2212;0.01</td>
<td align="left" char=".">&#x2212;3.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<fig id="F7" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 7</label>
<caption>
<p>
<bold>(A)</bold> Upwelling index and <bold>(B)</bold> volume of hypoxic waters in cubic meters (m<sup>3</sup>). Red dashed lines indicate the trend.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-10-929271-g007.tif"/>
</fig>
<fig id="F8" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 8</label>
<caption>
<p>Decadal trends of <bold>(A)</bold> temperature, <bold>(B)</bold> salinity, <bold>(C)</bold> Oxygen, at the bottom (65&#x2013;80&#xa0;m), intermediate (30&#x2013;50&#xa0;m), lower surface (15&#x2013;20&#xa0;m) and surface (0&#x2013;10&#xa0;m) layers. Units indicate change for every 10&#xa0;years.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-10-929271-g008.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B79">Pitcher et al. (2021)</xref> provides a synthesis of drivers for DO reduction trends in coastal systems. In most cases, a decadal negative trend (deoxygenation) occurs in systems such as the California current system from Canada (Vancouver) to southern California (ranging from 8.3 to 21&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>&#xa0;decade <sup>&#x2212;1</sup>) and coastal systems off Peru (ranging from 1.62 to 10&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>&#xa0;decade <sup>&#x2212;1</sup>), whereas no trends are observed in the Canary upwelling system. In the last 60&#xa0;years, shelf deoxygenation trends are significantly higher than the global ocean deoxygenation trend (i.e., 0.075&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;kg<sup>&#x2013;</sup>1&#xa0;yr<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> or &#x223c;4.5&#xa0;&#x3bc;mol&#xa0;kg<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">Gr&#xe9;goire et al., 2021</xref>).</p>
<p>Climate model projections estimate that there will be considerable reductions in the open ocean DO inventory in response to anthropogenic climate forcing (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B91">Schmidtko et al., 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B128">Oschlies, 2021</xref>), these projections also coincide with observed DO (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">Helm et al., 2011</xref>). However, the drivers of shelf hypoxia remain unresolved. The main driver of DO variability is wind driven upwelling, which is predicted to increase under climate change scenarios (e.g., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B25">Echevin et al., 2012</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B108">Sydeman et al., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B131">Bakun et al., 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">Oyarz&#xfa;n and Brierley, 2019</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B122">Winckler-Grez et al., 2020</xref>). Observational evidence from this study supports these predictions, as significant negative trends in DO and temperature, and positive trends in salinity see (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table 1</xref>), indicates changes in the depth of waters depleted in DO. On average, the annual UI is four times higher, from 55.9 to 214.1&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>&#xa0;s<sup>&#x2212;1</sup> (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure 7A</xref>) while the hypoxic volume became 1.2 times higher (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure 7B</xref>) in the same period. Yearly averages since 1997 show a clearer trend of the hypoxic volume, changing by a factor of 2.3 from 1997. A similar trend is also estimated for the volume of severe hypoxia (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s10">Supplementary Figure S1</xref>) supporting the hypothesis that climate-dependent strengthening of upwelling wind forcing increases the intensity and spatial extent of hypoxia in coastal upwelling systems. The simultaneous increase in hypoxic volume and UI is probably due to the increase in upwelling intensity and/or duration of the upwelling favorable season, as described by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">Abrahams et al. (2021)</xref>. Additionally, north of 30&#xb0;S there is an intensification of winds due to increased land-sea temperature gradients, known as the &#x201c;Bakun effect&#x201d; (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">Bakun, 1990</xref>), reported by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B120">Weidberg et al. (2020)</xref>.</p>
<p>In large EBUS, a general increase in upwelling favorable winds has led to a reported decline in SST (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">Guti&#xe9;rrez et al., 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B108">Sydeman et al., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">Abrahams et al., 2021</xref>), which is the case of the HCS (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B7">Aravena et al., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B93">Schneider et al., 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Aguirre et al., 2018</xref>). This is related to the well documented southward expansion of the SPA (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B108">Sydeman et al., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B93">Schneider et al., 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Aguirre et al., 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B122">Winckler-Grez et al., 2020</xref>) and the more frequent occurrence of migratory anticyclones passing through the coast of central-southern Chile (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">Aguirre et al., 2021b</xref>). These trends agree with previous studies reporting positive trends in chlorophyll along upwelling regions (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B44">Gregg et al., 2005</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">Guti&#xe9;rrez et al., 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B65">Marrari et al., 2017</xref>), including in coastal upwelling off central Chile, as shown by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Aguirre et al. (2018)</xref> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B122">Winckler-Grez et al. (2020)</xref>. Such trends may be explained by increased upwelling-favorable winds that pump nutrients toward the surface to promote the growth of phytoplankton and increase biomass, as reported in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Aguirre et al. (2018)</xref> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B120">Weidberg et al. (2020)</xref> but only north of 30&#xb0;S. An increase in the phytoplankton biomass or OM could have an implication in the local consumption of DO, which requires further investigation.</p>
<p>DO dynamics, including hypoxic volume and intensity are highly responsive to a variety if parameters, including changes in source water (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">Emerson et al., 2004</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B121">Whitney et al., 2007</xref>, <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dante-Espinoza-Morriberon?utm_content=businessCard&amp;utm_source=publicationDetail&amp;rgutm_meta1=AC%3A11981844">Espinoza-Morriberon</ext-link> et al., 2021), eutrophication (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">Howarth et al., 2011</xref>) and upwelling wind forcing (see previous references). Also, variability in ENSO, with increased frequency and intensity of extreme ENSO events during the last century (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">Gergis and Fowler, 2009</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">Cai et al., 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B118">Wang et al., 2019</xref>), may interact with the regional changes in wind patterns and water mass distributions. It is unlikely that a change in DO consumption off central Chile is due to eutrophication in the coastal system as rivers have a moderate or low N and P load (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B66">Masotti et al., 2018</xref>). This contrasts to the Gulf of Mexico or the continental shelf off India (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">Breitburg, et al., 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B71">Naqvi, 2021</xref>), but it remains unclear if changes in water masses at mid latitudes, mainly the ESSW, are responsible for the observed deoxygenation.</p>
<p>Finally, decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is also a potential driver in the observed DO variability, which also impacts the seasonal migrations and intensification of the offshore SPA and its frictional interactions with the continent. A reconstruction of DO concentrations over the previous century (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B100">Srain et al., 2015</xref>) shows an interdecadal variability of &#x3e;30&#xa0;years periods associated with a negative (positive) phase of PDO, that favors (hinders) the development of wind driven upwelling, which in turn enhances (reduces) primary productivity and export.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-5">
<title>3.5 Impact and risks of hypoxia</title>
<p>Currently, climate change risk assessments are carried out for social, ecological and productive sectors (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B84">IPCC, 2022</xref>). Off central Chile, the observed reduction in DO over time could be considered as a climate-related hazard having an impact and risk on biological resources, ecosystems and coastal communities. In addition, wind-forced upwelling can propel hypoxic water onto the littoral zone (less than 20&#xa0;m depth) and even into shallow water bays (e.g., Concepci&#xf3;n Bay, Coliumo Bay, Arauco Gulf). This is due to the shoaling of oxygen isolines, including the 89 and 22 &#xb5;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>, frequently observed in coastal upwelling zones (see <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s10">Supplementary Figure S3</xref>) Thus, hypoxia events on the inner-shelf may become more frequent and severe, increasing exposure and sensitivity, therefore the risk of benthic organisms (that live on the littoral area less than 20&#xa0;m depth) or even pelagic organisms to be more exposed, leading to more vulnerable coastal communities that depend on these resources.</p>
<p>
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B49">Hern&#xe1;ndez and Tapia (2021)</xref> indicate that upwelling induced hypoxic events on nearshore subtidal systems are commonplace, but also significantly variable between locations; with half of the sites in their study showing mean DO values at the hypoxic threshold. In fact, several historical massive fish and crustacea mortality events were recorded in the study area (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B50">Hernandez-Miranda et al., 2010</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B51">Hernandez-Miranda et al., 2012</xref>). Recently, an analysis from reports and monitoring by the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Service (SERNAPESCA) over the last 15&#xa0;years (2006&#x2013;2021) has suggested that most massive fish mortally events occur during events of dominant south or southwest winds (i.e. with a significant equatorward component), These mass mortality events have intensified on the central Chilean coast, especially in small pelagic fish (anchoveta and sardine) and crustaceans (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B95">Sep&#xfa;lveda, 2022</xref>).</p>
<p>The climatic risk is a probability indicator of the magnitude of damage that may occur due to changes in the environment. In this case, DO reduction is a phenomenon that has a climate forcing. Estimating risk requires knowledge of hazard, exposure and sensitivity of the system (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B83">P&#xf6;rtner et al., 2022</xref>), and the spatial extension of a climatic hazard for the recent past (1980&#x2013;2010) and the medium-term future (2035&#x2013;2065) under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (such as RCP8.5). Human coastal communities and ecosystems have an increasing risk of exposure to natural hazards (in this case hypoxia) over the EBUS due to the spatial expansion of this phenomena, and negative DO trends in upwelling systems (review in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">IPCC, 2019</xref>).</p>
<p>Equatorward wind stress is predicted to increase in the northern and southern HCS during the next decades. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) uses thirteen different models with both historical simulations and an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5) (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4158-7">Oyarz&#xfa;n</ext-link> and <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4158-7">Brierley, 2019</ext-link>), indicates that the exposure of coastal marine ecosystems to hypoxia may increase direct mortality or severely affect different biological processes. For example, impact on feeding behavior, movement, growth, reproductive process, and reductions in habitat quality for plankton and benthic species is observed. In turn, these impacts scale up to population level, species composition, biodiversity, and commercial fisheries (e.g., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B43">Grantham et al., 2004</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B116">Vaquer-Sunyer and Duarte, 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">Ekau et al., 2010</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B63">Low and Micheli, 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B130">Thomas and Rahman, 2012</xref>). Moreover, severe impacts on marine organisms or even mas mortality events of fish and invertebrates are commonly associated with EBUS, where hypoxia frequently occurs (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B43">Grantham et al., 2004</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B64">Low et al., 2021</xref>). Thus, alterations in upwelling regimes as a consequence of climate change are likely to further increase the frequency and magnitude of upwelling-driven hypoxia and, in consequence, mass mortality events (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B103">Stauffer et al., 2012</xref>).</p>
<p>Vulnerability to hypoxia is variable across temporal and spatial scales (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B64">Low et al., 2021</xref>) and this is the case in central Chile. Since vulnerability is dependent on economic, sociocultural, geographic, demographic, and governance factors (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B59">Kelman, et al., 2016</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B64">Low et al., 2021</xref>), the Chilean coast could be considered as highly vulnerable to hypoxia. In Chile there are 100 coastal municipalities with around 4.5&#xa0;million inhabitants. Fisheries and aquaculture are amongst the most important economic and socially productive activities. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of deoxygenation over time; thus, hypoxia will increase the vulnerability of coastal communities and the fishing industry. This may lead to socioeconomic impacts such as reduced economic income for fishers and compromise food security. Furthermore, it is considered that there is a highly dependent socioeconomic relationship between artisanal fisheries and small-scale aquaculture, with the environmental services being used. This means they are more vulnerable and less resilient and require support to adapt to climate change. To mitigate this vulnerability requires, in part, continuous, high-resolution and real time DO observations in coastal upwelling ecosystems to inform decision makers and resource users in coastal zones. Unfortunately, insight into high frequency variability in the southern HCS system has been limited by the lack of <italic>in-situ</italic> and real time data of physical and biogeochemical properties in the coastal zone (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">Far&#xed;as et al., 2019</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B88">Ramajo et al., 2020</xref>).</p>
<p>Thus, a monitoring network of academic, government, fishing cooperatives and social stakeholders could provide a valuable opportunity for local adaptation in the face of escalating exposure to environmental stressors (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B64">Low et al., 2021</xref>). Capacity building, community participation and adequate governance in coastal communities regions will help to reduce socio-economic impacts associated with these events.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s4">
<title>4 Concluding remark</title>
<p>This analysis identifies different levels of DO variability, dominated by wind driven upwelling associated with variability in high frequency intra-seasonal equatorward winds, and its interaction with low frequency seasonal cumulative wind stress. Both play an important role in controlling shelf DO variability, at high-frequency and intra annual (seasonal) scales.</p>
<p>The average DO in the water column (measured down to 90&#xa0;m) reaches 63%&#x2013;72% and 41%&#x2013;48% of its volume with concentrations of less than 89.3 and 22.3&#xa0;&#xb5;mol&#xa0;L<sup>&#x2212;1</sup>, respectively. During the upwelling season, as much as 87% and 81% of the water column are below these thresholds respectively. In the austral winter (during July), the water column reaches maximum oxygenation, with an average of 26% and 2% of the water column below the hypoxic and severely hypoxic thresholds respectively. Over seasonal scales, wind forcing physically controls the occurrence of hypoxia, as cumulative wind stress is well correlated with hypoxic volume, the percentage of hypoxic waters, and occurrence of severe hypoxia events in the water column.</p>
<p>In two consecutive upwelling seasons, between 4&#x2013;6 surface hypoxia events per year are registered at 10 m depth, lasting up to 5&#xa0;days. These events are not captured by a monthly sampling frequency at TST18, thus continuous monitoring is required to understand weekly and intra-seasonal variability. Most of the variability is associated with active and relaxed equatorward winds.</p>
<p>On interannual scales, variability is poorly understood and is weakly associated with ENSO cycles. This is likely to be due to a greater distance from the equatorial system. At mid latitudes ENSO appears to dominate local variability caused by the anticyclone and atmospheric teleconnection mechanisms.</p>
<p>Negative decadal trends in DO (deoxygenation) and temperature (cooling) indicate that DO loss is not associated with changes in gas solubility. Changes may occur through the influx of oxygen-poor waters that in turn increase the production of organic matter and the subsequent DO consumption. Decadal changes in the composition of source water have not been fully investigated and DO variability may be due to shifts in the vertical distribution of water-masses.</p>
<p>Given the clear evidence that strong upwelling-favorable wind influences the likelihood and severity of hypoxia events, due to the projected intensification of upwelling in the future (i.e., more intense and/or more frequent upwelling events) the coastal zone could become highly vulnerable, resulting in impacts on biological resources and biogeochemical cycles.</p>
</sec>
</body>
<back>
<sec sec-type="data-availability" id="s5">
<title>Data availability statement</title>
<p>The datasets presented in this study can be found in online repositories. The names of the repository/repositories and accession number(s) can be found below: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://10.48665/udec/CMHMEQ">10.48665/udec/CMHMEQ</ext-link> <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.pangaea.de/">https://www.pangaea.de/</ext-link>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s6">
<title>Author contributions</title>
<p>LDM and LF contributed equally to this manuscript. LF conceived the idea to analyze different scales of oxygen variability from a DO time series that she has maintained in recent years and also an interpretation of the vulnerability analysis, LDM analyzed the data with different statistical approaches and has also made graphs and other analyzes to rule out hypotheses LDM and LF wrote and they approved the submitted version.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s7">
<title>Funding</title>
<p>LF acknowledges support of the Agencia Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Desarrollo (ANID). This research was funded by FONDECYT 1200861, FONDAP-CONICYT 15110009 (CR2), Millennium Science Initiative Program ICM 2019&#x2013;015 (SECOS) and Millennium Science Initiative Program NCN19_153 (Upwell).</p>
</sec>
<ack>
<p>The authors thank the biogeochemistry group of the Universidad de Concepci&#xf3;n for their help and support, in particular Gerardo Garcias and Karen Sanzana who dedicated themselves completely in recent years. We also thank Laura Ramajo, Crsitian Vargas and reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions. We appreciate the work of Juan Faundez and Dixon Villena on the metadata and validation of the time series data. Both the crew of R/V Kay (II) and staff of the Dichato Marine Station of the University of Concepci&#xf3;n provided valuable help during fieldwork; as well as all participating colleagues in the COPAS time series (COPAS program started in 2002&#x2013;2012 at Concepcion University, Department of Oceanography), who provided the core measurements. Particularly Renato Qui&#xf1;ones&#xb4;s lab who provides Chl-a and oxygen (Winkler Method) data from 2012 to date and Fabian Tapia CTDO data (2016&#x2013;2018). We also appreciate the work done since the beginning of COPAS Time series by many technical assistants such as Juan Faundez, Mauricio Gallegos, Luis Montecinos, Oliver Alarcon, among others.</p>
</ack>
<sec sec-type="COI-statement" id="s8">
<title>Conflict of interest</title>
<p>The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="disclaimer" id="s9">
<title>Publisher&#x2019;s note</title>
<p>All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s10">
<title>Supplementary material</title>
<p>The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.929271/full#supplementary-material">https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.929271/full&#x23;supplementary-material</ext-link>
</p>
<supplementary-material>
<label>Supplementary Figure S1</label>
<caption>
<p>
<bold>(A)</bold> Ekman transport and <bold>(B)</bold> velocity smoothed over 3 months. The respective trends are represented by red dashed lines.</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material>
<supplementary-material>
<label>Supplementary Figure S2</label>
<caption>
<p>
<bold>(A)</bold> Sigma-t and <bold>(B)</bold> dissolved oxygen hovm&#xf6;ller diagrams, white contours represent isopycnals, in <bold>(B)</bold> the 25.6 and 26.2 isopycnals are shown as indicators of SAAW and ESSW water masses, respectively. <bold>(C)</bold> Scatterplot showing the relation between sigma-t and DO. <bold>(D)</bold> Sigma-t and DO correlations along the water column, all significant.</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material>
<supplementary-material>
<label>Supplementary Figure S3</label>
<caption>
<p>Zonal cross section of oceanographic data obtained from Corredor-Acosta et al. (2020) cruises (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.913715">https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.913715</ext-link>).</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material>
<supplementary-material>
<label>Supplementary Table S1</label>
<caption>
<p>Correlation coefficients among DO and different ENSO indexes (ICEN, ONI and Coastal index) at several depth layers. All significant correlations marked.</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material>
<supplementary-material>
<label>Supplementary Table S2</label>
<caption>
<p>Temperature (&#xb0;C), Salinity (PSU) and Oxygen (umol L-1) anomalies correlation with equatorwards wind stress. All significant correlations marked.</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material>
<supplementary-material xlink:href="Image3.TIFF" id="SM1" mimetype="application/TIFF" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/>
<supplementary-material xlink:href="Table1.pdf" id="SM2" mimetype="application/pdf" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/>
<supplementary-material xlink:href="Image2.TIF" id="SM3" mimetype="application/TIF" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/>
<supplementary-material xlink:href="Image1.TIF" id="SM4" mimetype="application/TIF" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/>
<supplementary-material xlink:href="DataSheet1.PDF" id="SM5" mimetype="application/PDF" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/>
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