AUTHOR=Esposti Ongaro Tomaso , Cerminara Matteo , de’ Michieli Vitturi Mattia , Tadini Alessandro , Trolese Matteo , Fornaciai Alessandro , Nannipieri Luca , Calusi Benedetta , Macías Jorge , Castro Manuel J. , Escalante Cipriano , Ortega Sergio , González-Vida José M. , Rodríguez-Gálvez Juan F. 

TITLE=Modeling and simulation of volcanic mass movements and induced tsunamis at Stromboli volcano (Aeolian archipelago, Tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Earth Science

VOLUME=Volume 13 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2025.1548961

DOI=10.3389/feart.2025.1548961

ISSN=2296-6463

ABSTRACT=Mass movements at Stromboli volcano (Aeolian islands, Italy) have the capability of generating tsunamis, potentially affecting not only the island shores, but the whole Aeolian archipelago and the Southern Tyrrhenian sea. Such mass movements can be associated with subaerial and subaqueous slope instabilities of the Sciara del Fuoco, and with pyroclastic avalanches generated by the explosive activity. In this work, we present a wide set of volcanic mass movement scenarios and the subsequent tsunami generation, propagation and inundation on the Stromboli shores. Scenarios are produced by using a multilayer, depth-averaged non-hydrostatic numerical model able to simulate the dynamics of granular avalanches, their interaction with the sea, and the generation and propagation of the water waves. Five volumes ranging from 5×106 to 30×106m3, and 10 vertical elevations from +322 m above to −584 m under the sea level are analyzed, to encompass the range hypothesized for the 2002 event at Stromboli. Densities of 1,667, 2000 and 2,500 kg/m3 are explored. A total of 150 scenarios is here analyzed. Maps of the maximum wave height, arrival times, and water depth are stored for each scenario. Data include also waveforms at 11 sampling points, two of them corresponding to the two sensor-equipped buoys installed offshore. The most voluminous scenario predicts the largest maximum wave height of several tens of metres close to the Sciara del Fuoco, producing large inundation on the Stromboli shores. The shape of the proximal waves does not change with the volume of the granular mass, but is affected by its initial position. For a given volume, subaerial mass movements have the highest tsunamigenic potential, with the first crest being the highest one, and the responsible for most of the inundation. Moving to subaqueous positions, waveforms are characterized by a first, relatively small crest, followed by a trough and a higher second crest, responsible for the inundation. The effect of the density contrast on the wave elevation appear to be a second-order one. Simulation results are assembled in a publicly accessible database and made available for future hazard and risk assessment studies.