AUTHOR=Xue Zhun Ping , Chindelevitch Leonid , Guichard Frédéric 

TITLE=Supply-driven evolution: Mutation bias and trait-fitness distributions can drive macro-evolutionary dynamics

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2022

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/ecology-and-evolution/articles/10.3389/fevo.2022.1048752

DOI=10.3389/fevo.2022.1048752

ISSN=2296-701X

ABSTRACT=Many well-documented macro-evolutionary phenomena still challenge current evolutionary theory. Examples include long term evolutionary trends, major transitions in evolution, conservation of certain biological features such as hox genes, and the episodic creation of new taxa. Here we present a framework that may explain these phenomena. We do so by introducing a probabilistic relationship between trait value and reproductive fitness. This integration allows mutation bias to become a robust driver of long term evolutionary trends against environmental bias, in a way that is consistent with all current evolutionary theory. In cases where mutation bias is strong, such as when detrimental mutations are more common than beneficial mutations, a regime called "supply-driven" evolution can arise. This regime can explain the irreversible persistence of higher structural hierarchies, such as happens in the major transitions in evolution. We further generalize this result to the long-term dynamics of phenotype spaces. We show how mutations that open new  phenotype spaces can become frozen in time. At the same time, the new possibilities may be observed as a burst in the creation of new taxa.