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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Endocrinol.
Sec. Obesity
Volume 15 - 2024 |
doi: 10.3389/fendo.2024.1334924
This article is part of the Research Topic Cardiometabolic diseases in postmenopausal women View all articles
Development and Validation of a Predictive Nomogram for the Risk of MAFLD in Postmenopausal Women
Provisionally accepted- 1 Changchun University of Chinese Medicine, Changchun, China
- 2 First Affiliated Hospital to Changchun University of Chinese Medicine, Changchun, Hebei Province, China
- 3 Changchun Tongyuan Hospital, Changchun, Hebei Province, China
Background and aim: Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has gradually become one of the main health concerns regarding liver diseases. Postmenopausal women represent a high-risk group for MAFLD; therefore, it is of great importance to identify and intervene with patients at risk at an early stage. This study established a predictive nomogram model of MAFLD in postmenopausal women and to enhance the clinical utility of the new model, the researchers limited variables to simple clinical and laboratory indicators that are readily obtainable.Methods: Data of 942 postmenopausal women from January 2023 to October 2023 were retrospectively collected and divided into two groups according to the collection time: the training group (676 cases) and the validation group (226 cases). Significant indicators independently related to MAFLD were identified through univariate logistic regression and stepwise regression, and the MAFLD prediction nomogram was established. The C-index and calibration curve were used to quantify the nomogram performance, and the model was evaluated by measuring the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).Results: Of 37 variables, 11 predictors were identified, including occupation (worker), body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, number of abortions, anxiety, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, hyperuricemia, and diet (meat and processed meat). The C-index of the training group predicting the related risk factors was 0.827 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.794-0.860). The C-index of the validation group was 0.787 (95% CI 0.728-0.846). Calibration curves 1 and 2 (BS1000 times) were close to the diagonal, showing a good agreement between the predicted probability and the actual incidence in the two groups. The AUC of the training group was 0.827, the sensitivity was 0.784, and the specificity was 0.735. The AUC of the validation group was 0.787, the sensitivity was 0.674, and the specificity was 0.772. The DCA curve showed that the nomogram had a good net benefit in predicting MAFLD in postmenopausal women.A predictive nomogram for MAFLD in postmenopausal women was established and verified, which can assist clinicians in evaluating the risk of MAFLD at an early stage.
Keywords: MAFLD, postmenopausal women, nomogram, predictive model, Risk factors
Received: 08 Nov 2023; Accepted: 09 Jul 2024.
Copyright: © 2024 Yang, Chen, Shen, Xiong, Liu, Leng and Jiao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Xingyu Chen, First Affiliated Hospital to Changchun University of Chinese Medicine, Changchun, Hebei Province, China
Zhuang Xiong, First Affiliated Hospital to Changchun University of Chinese Medicine, Changchun, Hebei Province, China
Tiejun Liu, Changchun University of Chinese Medicine, Changchun, China
Yan Leng, Changchun University of Chinese Medicine, Changchun, China
Yue Jiao, Changchun Tongyuan Hospital, Changchun, Hebei Province, China
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Xingyu Chen
2*