AUTHOR=Mao Qingsong , Zhu Xiaoyi , Zhang Xinyi , Kong Yuzhe 

TITLE=Diabetes burden attributable to air pollution from 1990~2021 and the future trends: a population-based study

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Endocrinology

VOLUME=Volume 16 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/endocrinology/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1475822

DOI=10.3389/fendo.2025.1475822

ISSN=1664-2392

ABSTRACT=BackgroundThis investigation explores the worldwide impact of diabetes burden associated with air pollution, drawing on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.MethodThe influence of air pollution on diabetes burden was analyzed at global, regional, and national levels. The study considered variations across age groups and genders and explored the relationship between disease impact and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Additionally, an ARIMA model was employed to predict the future incidence of diabetes burden related to air pollution until 2050.ResultIn 2021, approximately 281.91 thousand fatalities and 12.90 million disability-adjusted life years were attributed to diabetes burden due to air pollution, featuring an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 3.3234 (95% UI, 1.9549–4.6634) and an age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of 148.9167 (95% UI, 86.5013–224.9116) per 100,000 individuals. There was a noticeable escalation in the disease burden over the period studied. The most severe effects were noted in individuals aged 60 and above. The data also revealed a higher disease burden among males. Forecasting suggests that while low SDI regions might see a decrease in death rates, lower-middle SDI areas could face an increase in standardized mortality rates. On a national scale, Russia, Mexico, and several African nations are predicted to experience rising diabetes burden attributable to air pollution mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates from now to 2050. South Asia and Africa are anticipated to witness substantial growth in age-standardized death rates compared to other areas.ConclusionThe results provide essential insights for developing preventive strategies for diabetes burden and measures to mitigate air pollution.