AUTHOR=Zhang Xin , Dong Xiaojia , Li Xinyu 

TITLE=Study of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 2050

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Energy Research

VOLUME=Volume 9 - 2021

YEAR=2021

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/energy-research/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2021.724021

DOI=10.3389/fenrg.2021.724021

ISSN=2296-598X

ABSTRACT=As an important form of clean energy generation with the characteristics of continuous and stable power generation and friendly to the grid, Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) has been developing rapidly in recent years. It is expected that CSP, together with wind and solar photovoltaic, will constitute a stable, high percentage of renewable energy generation system that will win in price competition with conventional energy sources. In the paper, a dynamic programming approach based on minimum cost is used to explore the optimal development path of CSP generation in China by 2050. A learning curve model and a technology diffusion model are adopted as constraints. The impact of factors, such as GDP growth, incentive policies, technological advances, grid absorptive capacity, and emission regulation schemes on the development of CSP generation, is discussed in the context of sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The paper has reached the following conclusions: (1) The government cannot achieve the target for cumulative installed capacity in 2050. Considering the interaction of relevant factors, the target would be hard to achieve even under favorable conditions; (2) As a key factor affecting the development of CSP, the incentive policy is closely related to construction cost. It is noteworthy that although the target can be achieved with a higher investment ratio, the CSP industry has failed to form a good ecological environment in the early stage of development. (3) GDP growth and learning rate are important factors influencing the path at the later stage. (4) While serving as potential factors affecting construction costs, grid absorptive capacity and carbon permit prices have limited impact on the development of CSP generation.