AUTHOR=Xue Leyang , Chen Feier , Fu Guiyuan , Xia Qiliang , Du Luhui 

TITLE=Stability Analysis of the World Energy Trade Structure by Multiscale Embedding

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Energy Research

VOLUME=Volume 9 - 2021

YEAR=2021

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/energy-research/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2021.729690

DOI=10.3389/fenrg.2021.729690

ISSN=2296-598X

ABSTRACT=This paper investigates the trading network of the international crude oil and gas market, focusing on its structure changes and dynamic processes after the unexpected 2014 price drop. We employ dynamical similarity analysis at different time scales by inducing a multiscale embedding for dimensionality reduction. This analysis quantifies the effect of a global event on the system and point over time. Then dependencies and correlation stability at both the country and world level can be revealed. We compare the response of China's trading structure toward events after 2014 with other major traders. China, as the world's largest importing country, lacks strong stability under global events and could be greatly affected by a supply shortage, especially in the gas market. Structure similarity and induced feature overtime could be applied to analyze the stability under environmental changes and potential risks. The hidden features of trade correlation and its implications may provide insightful advice for industry players and could be helpful for policymakers who concentrate on energy strategy.