AUTHOR=Silva Vinícius Leonardo Gadioli da , Oliveira Filho Delly , Carlo Joyce Correna , Vaz Patrícia Nogueira 

TITLE=An Approach to Solar Radiation Prediction Using ARX and ARMAX Models

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Energy Research

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/energy-research/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2022.822555

DOI=10.3389/fenrg.2022.822555

ISSN=2296-598X

ABSTRACT=Knowledge about solar radiation is fundamental to characterize the climate of a region. Solar radiation is strongly correlated to the meteorological phenomena and atmospheric components of the planet. In recent years, Brazilian meteorological networks have introduced numerous automatic stations to monitor global solar radiation at hourly intervals. Historically, large-scale climate data measurement has supported aviation and agricultural activities. However, in architecture or engineering, it has been employed only for about 40 years. With the enormous technology development, tools based on computer simulations have been used in several areas. The need for a good mathematical model to adequately describe a process is a great challenge, since the performance of control and simulation systems can significantly impact both system operation and/or automation and system planning. The design of control systems based on predictive models should allow for describing the dynamic behavior of the process or system under realistic conditions, as well as finding the simplest possible model to optimize the computational resources. The present work sought to predict solar radiation levels via ARX and ARMAX linear mathematical modeling. Hourly data over 10 years (2005 to 2015) were used in the simulation. Half of the data were used to create the models and the other half, for validation. During the simulations, global horizontal radiation was defined as input, while the following parameters were outputs: extraterrestrial normal radiation, infrared horizontal radiation, extraterrestrial horizontal radiation, direct normal radiation and diffuse horizontal radiation. It must be noted that a new simulation was performed for each variable. The use of linear modeling (ARX and ARMAX) to predict solar radiation data was efficient for extraterrestrial normal, infrared and extraterrestrial horizontal radiation with the mean square error equal to 2.51, 1.40 and 7.15 %, respectively.