Abstract
Hydrogen holds tremendous potential to decarbonize many economic sectors, from chemical and material industries to energy storage and generation. However, hydrogen is a tiny, leak-prone molecule that can indirectly warm the climate. Thus, hydrogen emissions from its value chain (production, conversion, transportation/distribution, storage, and end-use) could considerably undermine the anticipated climate benefits of a hydrogen economy. Several studies have identified value chain components that may intentionally and/or unintentionally emit hydrogen. However, the amount of hydrogen emitted from infrastructure is unknown as emissions have not yet been empirically quantified. Without the capacity to make accurate direct measurements, over the past two decades, some studies have attempted to estimate total value chain and component-level hydrogen emissions using various approaches, e.g., assumptions, calculations via proxies, laboratory experiments, and theory-based models (simulations). Here, we synthesize these studies to provide an overview of the available knowledge on hydrogen emissions across value chains. Briefly, the largest ranges in estimated emissions rates are associated with liquefaction (0.15%–10%), liquid hydrogen transporting and handling (2%–20%), and liquid hydrogen refueling (2%–15%). Moreover, present and future value chain emission rate estimates vary widely (0.2%–20%). Field measurements of hydrogen emissions throughout the value chain are critically needed to sharpen our understanding of hydrogen emissions and, with them, accurately assess the climate impact of hydrogen deployment.
Introduction
Hydrogen (H2) is a feedstock and an energy carrier with huge potential to limit the extent of climate change. Today, H2 is used in specialized industrial applications, such as chemical production and oil refining. Many propose a broad expansion of its use to a wide range of new applications, including renewable energy storage and power generation in industry and transportation, and by so doing have established H2 as a key component of global decarbonization efforts and the energy transition. The successful development of a hydrogen economy (ranging from H2 production to its use) could accelerate a transition to a global low-carbon economy, thereby helping to meet the Paris Agreement objective of limiting global warming to below 2°C (; ). Thus, policymakers and industries worldwide have begun a massive push for hydrogen, investing hundreds of billions of dollars into hydrogen projects (). However, whether the broad deployment of H2 will fulfill its promise to help meet near-term climate goals will depend on how it is produced, managed, and used ().
Currently, H2 is overwhelmingly produced from fossil fuels with very high associated levels of climate pollution (i.e., gray H2). Low-carbon H2 can be achieved by including carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) within this process (i.e., blue H2). Near-zero-carbon H2 can be produced from water electrolysis using a diversity of renewable energy sources (wind, solar, and hydro) (i.e., green or electrolytic H2), as well as nuclear energy (i.e., pink H2) (; ; ). Moreover, net zero-carbon H2 can be produced from biomass and renewable energy (i.e., bio H2) (). However, achieving climate-neutrality status also requires no hydrogen emissions.
Regardless of how it is produced, the H2 molecule is leak-prone and has indirect warming effects. H2 induces atmospheric perturbations that increase concentrations of three potent greenhouse gases (GHG): methane (CH4), water vapor in the stratosphere (H2O), and ozone in the troposphere (; ; ; ; ; ). Specifically, tropospheric H2 oxidation (H2 + OH = H + H2O) depletes the hydroxyl radical (OH), the primary sink for CH4, leading to a lengthening of the CH4 atmospheric lifetime. Additionally, producing atomic hydrogen (H) from H2 oxidation leads to a chain of reactions that produces tropospheric ozone. Furthermore, when this reaction occurs in the stratosphere, the increased water vapor produced leads to stratospheric cooling due to the enhancement of its radiative capacity, which results in the planet’s overall warming (; ).
Hydrogen’s warming effects play out over a period of a couple of decades (). The latest science suggests that over a 20-year period, H2 can cause 30 to 40 times more warming than CO2 for equal initial emissions in mass (). Because its impacts are short-lived, hydrogen’s warming potency is around 12 times that of CO2 over 100 years. Thus, the overall climate benefits, especially in the near term, from replacing fossil fuel systems with hydrogen alternatives will depend on how much H2 is emitted.
Studies show that if effectively handled, H2 could bring real climate benefits. With a low emissions rate, green H2 could nearly eliminate climate impacts compared to fossil fuels, and blue H2 could dramatically reduce impacts (; ). However, climate benefits decrease significantly with the increase in H2 emissions, posing a risk to decarbonization goals (; ; ).
To achieve the promised maximum climate benefits of H2, measures are needed to keep it from escaping into the atmosphere across the entire value chain (i.e., production, conversion, transport/distribution, storage, and end use). However, it is virtually unknown how much H2 is emitted intentionally and unintentionally from hydrogen systems since, to date, these emissions have not been measured, mainly because the instrumentation to measure H2 emissions at low-level concentrations has been lacking. Current commercially available sensors suitable for use in industrial settings can only detect H2 at higher concentrations (i.e., ppm level) that are relevant for ensuring safe operating conditions but not suitable for quantifying overall site-level emissions (; ). Sensors for site-level emissions quantification require high sensitivity (i.e., at the low ppb level), selectivity, and fast response (i.e., in seconds) in situ. However, such sensors are currently unavailable, with a new technology that can fill this gap only recently announced (). Accordingly, quantitative studies only analyze H2 leakage with a safety focus, often in confined spaces (; ; ; ; ).
Over the past two decades, several studies have attempted to estimate total value chain (; ; ) and component-level H2 emissions to assess the risk of large-scale hydrogen use on the climate (; ; ; ; ). Due to the lack of direct measurements, their estimation methods are heavily dependent on assumptions, calculations via proxies, laboratory experiments, or theoretically-based models or simulations. Here, we synthesized these studies to provide a complete picture of our current understanding of H2 emissions sources and magnitudes across the hydrogen value chain. This synthesis is instrumental in identifying research needs and strengthening the integrity of hydrogen initiatives. Specifically, identifying and quantifying H2 emissions from infrastructure will help determine prevention and mitigation opportunities that maximize hydrogen’s decarbonization benefits.
Literature surveyed
The issue of hydrogen emissions from energy infrastructure has enormous climate implications but is vastly understudied. The few studies that have attempted to estimate H2 emissions from the hydrogen economy (; ; ; ; ), hydrogen systems (e.g., H2 fuel cell vehicles (), refueling stations ()), or a specific value chain component (e.g., liquid H2 [LH2] handling ()) have served as a basis for similar studies that assess the effect of H2 deployment on the atmosphere and the climate (; ; ; ). Further studies have estimated H2 emissions from each value chain component considering previous estimates. This mini-review summarizes these initial attempts to estimate H2 emissions from hydrogen value chains. Notably, we synthesize the studies by , , , Frazer-Nash (2022), and , which are the sole studies that provide hydrogen emissions estimates for total and per-component value chains. Because of the limited number of publications on hydrogen emissions, which are well-known among the community in this field, no specific strategy was employed to find literature on this topic.
assumed low and high H2 emissions scenarios based on previously estimated H2 emission rates (; ; ). published a technical report based on a 2022 workshop focused on the environmental impacts of hydrogen emissions, which includes the H2 emissions estimates presented by Air Liquide for today and 2030. However, the underlying assumptions/data leading to their reported estimates are not detailed. estimated the potential emissions of H2 supply chains in the UK using natural gas supply chain emissions as a proxy. Similarly, used natural gas emission estimates and conventional fluid mechanics to predict H2 emissions in a 2050 UK hydrogen economy using a probabilistic model with 50% and 99% confidence intervals. Lastly, estimated the emissions of different value chain components in 2050 for low- and high-emission cases. For their estimates, they used published emission rates and extrapolated from comparisons with similar technologies (e.g., ; ; ; ; ; ).
Potential sources of H2 emissions throughout the value chain
Hydrogen emissions from hydrogen systems described in the literature can be divided into intentional and unintentional emissions or operational and fugitive emissions (see Supplementary Figure S1). The intentional emissions comprise operational purging and venting (; ; ; ). Most unintentional emissions are assumed to occur because H2 is the smallest molecule and has low molecular weight, high diffusivity, and low viscosity (; ), making it hard to contain. Therefore, H2 leaks more easily than other molecules managed (e.g., compressed, liquefied), transported, and stored. Accordingly, the reported unintentional and fugitive emissions include leakage from pipework (pipes, valves, joints, traps, assets, seals, etc.) and equipment, diffusion from pipelines, and permeation from where it is stored (e.g., compression or liquefaction tanks, salt caverns, and depleted oil and gas fields). Other unintentional emissions, such as residual H2 in exhaust streams and natural boil-off from liquefied H2, derive from operational procedures.
H2 emissions are likely to occur throughout the value chain, from production, conversion, transport, and storage to end-use applications. Figure 1 and Supplementary Table S1 summarize the type of potential H2 emissions described in the literature for value chain components. The primary potential H2 emissions attributed to H2 production are leakage through pipework and equipment and operational purging for maintenance, removal of impurities, and during fault conditions. Additionally, for blue H2 production, there may be residual H2 in the CO2 stream. Similarly, for green H2 production, the vented O2 stream may carry residual H2 (due to H2 cross-over through the membrane between the electrodes). While venting of process gases is assumed negligible in new blue H2 plants (gases will be sent to flare), venting during startup (venting air within the cathode) and shutdown (to remove moisture and any explosive gas mixture from the system) has been identified as a potential source of H2 emissions in green H2 production (; ).
FIGURE 1
Regarding H2 conversion, potential H2 emissions reported for compression and liquefaction are mainly due to leakage through pipework and equipment (e.g., engine slip and compressor leakage through seals). Planned process venting, pipeline venting (e.g., for maintenance), and purging during startup and shutdown have also been identified as potential emissions sources during compression (
As for transportation, potential H2 emissions attributed to transmission and distribution pipelines include pipework and equipment leakage, venting, and diffusion (
The primary potential H2 emissions from H2 storage (above ground as a compressed gas or a cryogenic liquid and below ground in salt caverns and depleted oil and gas fields) include natural permeation and leakages through equipment due to pressurization and depressurization. For aboveground LH2 storage, there are additional identified potential emissions from boil-off and venting when boil-off leads to pressures deemed the safe maximum or releases to avoid getting close to critical pressures. In addition, for underground storage, venting and purging at surface processing plants due to annual maintenance, shutdown, and fault conditions (emergency shutdown) are other potential sources of emissions (
The H2 emissions from the last component of the value chain, end uses, will vary depending on the application (e.g., transport, industrial, power generation with fuel cells, internal combustion engines, or gas turbines). However, emissions from leakages through equipment and purging or venting have been identified as potential sources of emissions across end-uses (Figure 1 and Supplementary Table S1).
Estimated H2 emission rates for value chain components reported to date
To provide a comprehensive overview of potential H2 emissions from each value chain component, we compiled published H2 emission rates and summarized them in Figure 2 and Supplementary Table S2. In the absence of direct measurements, these H2 emission rates were estimated through assumptions, calculations via proxies, laboratory experiments, and theory-based models (simulations). Many of these estimates are based on previously published H2 emissions assumptions and estimates from natural gas systems.
FIGURE 2

H2 emissions rates estimates for value chain components as cited in the literature. The plotted values synthesize the estimates reported by
The synthesized references report emissions rates as a percentage of hydrogen produced, managed, or used in the respective supply chain component. All studies report ranges except
For H2 production, estimated emissions rates range between 0.5% and 1.0% for gray H2, 0.0%–1.5% for blue H2, and 0.03%–9.2% for green H2. Blue H2 production may have a higher leakage risk than gray H2 due to additional separation processes (
Estimated emissions rates associated with LH2 have the largest ranges; 0.15%–10.0% for liquefaction, 2.0%–13.2% for LH2 trucking, 2.0%–20% for LH2 handling, and 2.0%–15.0% for LH2 refueling stations. While some studies report emissions specific for liquefaction (
Estimated emissions rates associated with gaseous H2 transport, storage, and use also vary widely; 0.02%–5.0% for transmission pipelines, 0.0003%–5.0% for distribution pipelines, 0.3%–2.3% for transportation on road tube trailers, 2.8%–6.5% for storage above ground, and 0.25%–3.0% for gas refueling stations (including the estimations for gaseous H2-powered vehicles by (
Overall, H2 transport is predicted to generate the most emissions (
Estimated H2 emission rates of the total value chain
Without empirical data, very little confidence should be placed in total value chain emissions, as they are expected to be highly dependent on the configuration of the pathway and existing technology. To assess the environmental impacts of a potential hydrogen economy, several studies have estimated total H2 emissions rates between 0.2% and 20% from a diversity of value chains (e.g.,
Discussion
It is unknown whether technological advancements have influenced hydrogen emissions over the last two decades due to the lack of empirical data. This paucity of experimental validation has resulted in a vast range of estimates among studies that attempt to quantify H2 emissions, as they are based on various assumptions that are often poorly supported. For example,
Accurately assessing the climate impacts of switching to a hydrogen economy requires empirical data on H2 emissions from production through end uses (Figure 1 and Supplementary Table S1). However, until now, accurately measuring site-level H2 emissions was not feasible due to a lack of the high precision fast response instruments required (e.g., ∼10 ppb or 0.01 ppm sensitivity; one to a few seconds response time).
These measurements are critical for several reasons. First, they would support improvements in chemistry-climate models to understand the potential effects of hydrogen deployment on atmospheric composition and radiative forcing (
The H2 emissions magnitudes will depend on the industry scale in the future. Consequently, the industry size will play a major role in how these emissions influence the climate (
Lastly, it is important to mention that hydrogen systems have climate implications beyond hydrogen emissions (
Concluding remarks
Some studies have estimated hydrogen emissions magnitudes from total and per-component value chains with various assumptions and methodologies, leading to a wide range of emissions rate estimates. Based on our literature review, which includes the most extreme upper limits that are often criticized and considered “unrealistic” or “outdated”, we find little basis for characterizing the actual range in H2 emissions rates with reasonable confidence. Therefore, identifying and empirically quantifying H2 emissions throughout the value chain is fundamental.
Fortunately, there is still time to prevent suboptimal outcomes, as most of the hydrogen infrastructure proposed to meet decarbonization targets has yet to be built (
Statements
Author contributions
SH, IO, and TS conceptualized the project. AH, SE-E, and ES collected the information and data. SE-E and IO conducted the data visualization. SE-E wrote the first draft. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank Werner Weindorf, Patrick Schmidt, and Yanni Sandro Astono from the Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH consultancy for their insightful discussions on estimated hydrogen emissions rates from infrastructure. We also thank Dr. Jasmine Cooper for her communications on their reported hydrogen emissions estimates. AH thanks Jack Brouwer for his academic support. This manuscript has been released as a pre-print at OSF (Esquivel-Elizondo et al., 2023).
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Correction note
This article has been corrected with minor changes. These changes do not impact the scientific content of the article.
Publisher’s note
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.
Supplementary material
The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2023.1207208/full#supplementary-material
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Summary
Keywords
hydrogen economy, hydrogen value chain, hydrogen emissions, hydrogen leakage, hydrogen leaks
Citation
Esquivel-Elizondo S, Hormaza Mejia A, Sun T, Shrestha E, Hamburg SP and Ocko IB (2023) Wide range in estimates of hydrogen emissions from infrastructure. Front. Energy Res. 11:1207208. doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2023.1207208
Received
17 April 2023
Accepted
26 July 2023
Published
04 August 2023
Corrected
22 January 2026
Volume
11 - 2023
Edited by
Siamak Hoseinzadeh, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
Reviewed by
Kevin Dillman, University of Iceland, Iceland
Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
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© 2023 Esquivel-Elizondo, Hormaza Mejia, Sun, Shrestha, Hamburg and Ocko.
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