The synthesis report on the aggregate consequence of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) identifies emission gaps more significant than 10 GtCO₂eq amid the world GHG emissions based on the synopsis of NDCs in COP21 and the target pathways of 2°C (UNEP, 2017). On this note, the Paris proclamation has appealed to countries for more robust or ambitious decarbonization targets, to completely decarbonize the global economy by 100% with green energy by 2050 and net-zero emissions by the mid-century to keep the world on the trajectory of realizing below 1.5°C of warming (IPCC, 2018). Additionally, in 2017 the aggregate global energy consumption increased by 29%, reaching approximately 26,700 TWh in 2018. The international production profile increased by 30% from 2016 to 2018. Based on the current global population growth scenario and socioeconomic activities, there are strong indications from the United Nations human development index that global energy will reach 100 GJ per person in the coming years. Fossil fuels will dominate the latter, contributing around 75% of the world’s electricity demand in 2018, thus increasing CO₂ emissions (REN21, 2020; IEA, 2019; Zahraoui et al., 2021). Residential buildings specifically account for about 27% of the global final energy utilization and about 17% of the global CO₂ emissions (Nejat et al., 2015; Güneralp et al., 2017). However, the energy consumption level in the residential building sector grew by 14% between the years 2000 and 2010. This increase in energy consumption is estimated to be sustained due to demographic growth, economic expansion, and urbanization. Conversely, the global energy utilization for space heating and cooling is likely to reach a 40% increase by the mid-century, depending on some uncertainties (Eom et al., 2012a; Leibowicza et al., 2018). However, these tendencies are predominantly evident in developing economies, whose energy utilization levels are projected to converge near the consumption levels for the developed countries arising from an increase in household demand, employment, incomes rise, and increase in energy activities. Furthermore, the 2020 global energy consumption status report indicates that the building sector’s carbon emissions were highest in 2019 (IEA, 2020). The report shows that the overall global final energy use in the building sector was unchanged in 2019 when compared to the consumption levels in the preceding year, carbon emissions from the activities of buildings, which have risen to their maximum level hitherto at about 10 GtCO₂, or 28% of the overall global energy-related CO₂ emissions (Figures 1A, B). Similarly, with the addition of emissions from building construction, the share of CO₂ emissions rose to 38% of the overall global energy-related carbon emissions (Figure 1B). The latter underscores the significance of multiple approaches to aggressively moderate energy demand from the building sector whereas decarbonizing the power sector besides implementing materials strategies that decrease the carbon emissions lifecycle (IEA, 2020).

Buildings remain a critical area that lacks detailed mitigation strategies despite their significance to global carbon emissions. A report from (IEA, 2020) indicates that most nations have not submitted their second NDC. However, out of the 136 countries that submitted their NDC, only 53 nations remarked on energy efficiency in buildings. At the same time, 38 explicitly call out energy codes in buildings, indicating the prominence of energy efficiency in building for the future of our climate. Additionally, to achieve a zero-carbon building, construction should be done using suitable certification stock that drives carbon emissions in the built sector (IEA, 2020).

In building a relevant systematic review, the present study was channelled by the following research questions: 1) What is the current knowledge in the open literature on deep decarbonization in buildings in the global south? 2) What are the identified key drivers of emissions in the building sector in the global south countries 3) what are the technological options for low Emissions in buildings? 4) What gaps or contributions in the literature can assist Nigeria in building its decarbonization pathways? The study was focused on low-income countries in the global south since their energy consumption is heterogeneous. Such circumstances are likely familiar to Nigeria. In this background, the knowledge gap may contribute to crafting the Nigerian scenarios since the level of activities in these regions parallels the building sector. Therefore, the remaining sections of the paper are structured in the following broad perspective 1) the methodology, including the PRISMA (“Preferred Reporting Items Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis”) procedure used, 2) systematic reviews and amalgamation of the scientific studies to identify, select and evaluate appropriate research on low carbon building under deep decarbonization scenarios in the Global South and 3) identification of gaps and future research primacies.

The energy services needed within the building sector are varied. As the socioeconomic status of the households improves, the progression of the energy utilization is in two dimensions: 1) The services provided by the energy and 2) the required energy carrier to satisfy these services. These concentric dimensions usually are studied together to accomplish an all-inclusive understanding of the consequence of the building sector on the combined climate change and economic development problems. However, despite existing studies on low carbon building (LCB), scenarios, and deep decarbonization pathways (DDP), efforts toward a systematically comparative appraisal of these studies in developing economies are lacking. The present study endeavours to narrow the breach in understanding by identifying different approaches, policies, and scenarios to achieve LCB. Thus, the study presents a systematic literature review on LCB under deep decarbonization scenarios in selected global south regions (Asia, Latin America, and Africa), emphasizing Nigeria. The findings from this study will assist Nigeria in developing its scenarios in the proposed DDP project since Nigeria shear the same economic development features as the regions in question.

Some critical energy functions (and related drivers) play a crucial role in building energy utilization. Such functions comprise space cooling and heating, water heating, appliances, lighting, and others (Newton and Tucker, 2011). Modeling these core energy functions will assist in understanding the dynamics and likely impending trends in the building sector. The building energy amenity or service demands can be affected by human behavior, climate, and economic growth. Some building energy demand amenities can be met by limited energy. However, the building sector’s end-use energy demand and technologies vary from country to country and region to region, even within the same country. Different countries have developed specific models to handle their end-use energy demand and specific end-use technologies. The studies in (Shi et al., 2015) presented the end-use energy service and the structure of the China building sector in TIMES (See Figure 2). The structure contains the supply side, with coal, natural gas, LPG., electricity biomass, and geothermal as the energy carries. At the same time, the service demands and the end-uses are boilers, air conditioners, fluorescent, and incandescent. The end-use energy demand was modeled based on the climatic zone; as such, demand may vary due to variations in ambient conditions. The studies of (Leibowicza et al., 2018) in the United States building sector presented seven energy demand services (Figure 3).

The energy service demand type included a list of specific end-use technologies. Also, some demand types and alternate end-use choices are essentially different technologies; for example, the model provided fluorescent, halogen, incandescent, and LED. alternatives in the lighting. These lighting choices or options consume Electricity. Other demand types comprise end-use technologies that use different inputs to allow fuel switching. For example, the technologies that fulfil space heating requirements need solar energy, Electricity, or natural gas. Additionally, comparing energy service demand for the cases in (Shi et al., 2015; Leibowicza et al., 2018) shows an apparent disparity in their energy service demands. Thus, different conditions or scenarios will be required to address specifics. The latter is why the building energy modeling is performed based on country-specific energy service demand.

In recent times energy-related disquiets have widened to comprise GHG emissions, fossil-fuel diminution, global warming, and the advancement in green energy sources. Thus, building energy efficiency is the foundation for policy development and a promising instrument for Kyoto protocol compliance (Brounen et al., 2012). Energy efficiency likewise plays an essential part in the perspective of sustainable growth. It creates pathways for energy savings and CO₂ reduction without destabilizing the wellbeing of the building inhabitants (Pilkington et al., 2011; Wada et al., 2012). Additionally, several procedures have been undertaken to lift energy policies globally. About 118 nations in 2010 have engaged different energy strategies at the state, sectorial, and countrywide levels (Martinot, 2012); most of these strategies have been market transformation (MT) driven, defined as the enduring achievement of energy-efficient technologies within the marketplace. The classification of measures to actualize MT has been categorized twofold: the entry of new technologies and enhancing their competitiveness. Based on the category, the most recurrently applied strategies include the 1) BECs (“Building energy codes”). The BEC is the primary regulatory instrument used during the design phase by policymakers to reduce building energy demand in the long term. The BEC. set the least building energy requirement at the design phase, 2) setting standards for electronic equipment with minimum energy requirement and high energy efficiency levels, and 3) Raised public awareness through labels on equipment and educating clients regarding the use of energy-efficient appliances and long-term energy use on buildings, 4) Motivations, in terms of incentives (financial and non-financial) such as tax benefits, and promoting energy-efficient residences (IEA, 2023). Over 32 countries in the world have applied the BECs at varying strictness. For example, in countries like Russia, Korea, India, Chile, and Tunisia, BEC is obligatory. Still, not all building stock aspects are affected (IEA, 2013). Nonetheless, this is still challenging in most developing economies or low-income countries.

The total number of countries selected from the global south was fifteen. In Asia, four countries were selected: Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. Other countries in Latin America are Argentina, Mexico, Columbia, and Costa Rica. Similarly, in Africa, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, and South (Figure 4). Their Emission per capital in 2018 is also presented in Figure 4, wherein Asia: Pakistan, Malaysia, and Thailand had the highest EPC of 1.04, 7.6, and 3.7 respectively (Sandu et al., 2019; Climatewatchdata, 2021; Worldometers, 2021). For India, the EPC was 1.80 in 2018, a reduction of about 5.8% from 2016 values. For Pakistan, in 2016, the EPC was 0.87, with total CO₂ emission of over 170 million tons. The EPC value increased to 1.04 in 2018, amounting to 16.34%. In Africa, Nigeria’s total CO₂ emissions in 2016 stood at over 74 million tons with an EPC of 0.77. The EPC increased to 0.7 in 2018, culminating in a 42% increase. Other EPC. s data for respective countries are shown in Figure 4. The emissions trend is bound to have increased in recent times. Specific emission data for the building sector are usually not separated from the aggregate emissions. However, the rising values in EPCs is a growing concern and call for adequate emission tracking and documentation of sector-by-sector emission records for planning purposes.

The review process followed the PRISMA statement. The PRISMA offers the following advantages: It lucidly defines the research questions and offers methodical research. It identifies both inclusion and exclusion criteria. And finally, it tries to scrutinize a more expansive database of scientific compendiums in a well-defined time. It allows for rigorous exploration of terms associated with low carbon building under deep decarbonization scenarios in selected global south regions. Systematic review minimizes predisposition by applying straightforward methods and identifying gaps and novel directions for future research. These methods are extensively used in health and related research (Ford and Pearce, 2010; Ford et al., 2011); nevertheless, they are not common in environmental science and climate change studies. In this context, the systematic literature review (SLR) is applied for monitoring the drivers of CO₂ emissions, deep decarbonization pathways, and policies in the building sector for selected global south regions. However, the absence of detailed studies on deep decarbonization pathways in developing areas makes it difficult to reproduce the research and apply such methods within regions with standard energy demand features. A systematic review will provide implicit information for improving studies in this respect in the global south.

The review process depends on three focal journal databases–Google Scholar, Web of Science (WoS), and Scopus. Google scholar is an extensive database that publishes about two million articles annually. The WoS is a robust database comprising over 33,000 journals covering over 256 disciplines containing a wide variety of subjects associated with climate change, deep decarbonization of the building sector, residential energy utilization, environmental studies, and social sciences (Sierra-Correa and Kintz, 2015; Shaffril et al., 2018; Emodi et al., 2021). Furthermore, it is included over a century of wide-ranging back file and citation index data, confirmed and ranked by Clarivate Analytics in three specific measures: papers, citations, and citations per paper. Furthermore, the Scopus database is the most extensive citation and abstract database of peer-reviewed research literature containing over 22,800 journals on different topics and areas of science, engineering, energy, and built and environmental sciences from about 5,000 publishers (Sierra-Correa and Kintz, 2015; Shaffril et al., 2018).

The eligibility and the exclusion criterion are first determined. Its first begins with the type of literature. Journal articles with empirical and qualitative data, grey literature, and conference proceedings were included. At the same time, systematic reviews, book series, and book chapters are excluded. Secondly, to avoid ambiguity and difficulty in interpretation, non-English publications are excluded. Thirdly, a study period of 12 years study was selected, ranging between 2010 and 2021. The study was done to observe the advancement of research on the subject in question. Based on the set of objectives, the studies only included deep decarbonization pathways, scenarios, and emission drivers in the low-income economies in the global south were considered (Table 1).

Four different levels of the systematic review procedure were involved at this point. The systematic review was conducted in October 2021. The first stage identified the keywords for the search procedure related to studies on low carbon building and deep decarbonization in the building sector. The search query are (“buildings” OR “house*” OR “public” OR “residential” OR “commercial”) AND (“decarbonisation “OR “decarbonization” OR “low carbon” OR “low emission” OR “zero emission” OR “transition”) AND (“pathways” OR “scenarios” OR “policy*”). For Scopus and Web of Science databases, the search was set to retrieve potential relevant publications within “Article title, Abstract, Keywords”. The search query returned 14,594 and 10,702 potentially relevant articles from Scopus and Web of Science databases, respectively. For Google Scholar, the initial output gave 404,000 articles, this was because the search parameters on the Google Scholar database was set to retrieve results where the words occur “anywhere in the article” which lead to the initial huge number of articles; as the only other option of “in the title of the article” would have been insufficient. After preliminary scanning of the Google scholar output the number was reduced to 719 potentially relevant articles. The second procedure involves data screening. At this stage, out of the 20,314 available articles eligible for review, 18,504 articles were removed.

Furthermore, the complete article papers were accessed in the third stage eligibility phase. After careful analysis of the articles, 1,745 were excluded. Some articles did not center on deep decarbonization scenarios and were not within the countries of research interest. The final stage of the review led to 29 articles included in the systematic review and the analysis (see Figure 5).

The selected articles for eligibility were evaluated. The emphasis was on specific studies that addressed the research questions. First, the data extraction was performed by reading the abstracts and the entire article to substantiate relevant major and minor subjects. However, the qualitative evaluation was implemented by recognizing topics associated with the deep decarbonization scenario in the building sector of the global south regions. Different decarbonization pathways, policies, and emission drivers for the studied countries were identified and categorized.

This review offer valuable lessons for Nigeria’s journey towards decarbonizing the residential sector. The key lessons learned include:

Climate change remains a global concern and must be tackled with all forms of adaptation procedures to reduce its impact. This review has endeavoured to methodically examine the current literature on the low-carbon building under deep decarbonization scenarios in global south regions with specific findings that will assist Nigeria in the ongoing deep decarbonization project. A rigorous review has resulted in 29 papers from three databases related to scenario-based studies, energy transition, and deep decarbonization. The results indicate that few studies addressed deep decarbonization in the global south. Still, most countries have only submitted their proposed NDCs.

Furthermore, 56 scenarios were considered, resulting in the identification of 62 emission drivers for the entire global south. Asia, Latin America, and Africa contributed about 30.65%, 41.94%, and 27.42% of the emission drivers, respectively. The significant drivers of emissions in Asia were population, GDP in Latin America, GDP, economic structure, and population. In Africa, dwelling characteristics, urbanization, and population were trending. Comparing the entire region, population growth and urbanization movement are trending. Ecological scarcities facilitate the Urbanization rate due to climate change as people can no longer sustain their livelihood in the rural communities. However, all the studied scenarios in the global south are very close as they address the following: 1) Increase in the use of clean and renewable energy in the building sector, 2) Development of more energy-efficient, emerging low carbon technology in the building sector and 3) Pursuit of green economy, through the circular economy and blue economy principles and activities. However, these objectives are far from archiving. The regions may lack adequate financial investment and stakeholders’ participation in the decarbonization process.