AUTHOR=Chughtai Arshad , Uqaili Mohammad Aslam , Hussain Mirjat Nayyar , Shaikh Faheemullah , Khatri Shoaib Ahmed 

TITLE=Demand-side management scenario analysis for the energy-efficient future of Pakistan: Bridging the gap between market interests and national priorities

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Energy Research

VOLUME=Volume 12 - 2024

YEAR=2024

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/energy-research/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2024.1391973

DOI=10.3389/fenrg.2024.1391973

ISSN=2296-598X

ABSTRACT=Pakistan is facing the worst level of energy and economic crisis of its history. The underlying reason of economic crisis is basically due to the energy crisis. Various approaches have been adopted to tackle energy crises which country is facing for over two decades. Demand Side Management (DSM) is the most potent and cost-effective option to redress the energy crisis, which, unfortunately, has been the most neglected strategy in Pakistan. DSM has the potential, to save up to 10.0%-15.0% of primary energy to ensure the country's future energy security. Laws and codes do exist, but ironically, the most vital element of DSM's policy framework and implementation mechanism is missing. Hence, the main objective of this research is to develop a DSM model for Pakistan and analyze the Reference and DSM scenarios. Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used to develop Pakistan's DSM model for the study period 2021-2050. The three alternative DSM scenarios developed include Energy Efficiency (EEF), Energy Conservation (EC) and Load Management (LOM) and are analyzed. The model results estimate the electricity demand forecast of 1009.8 TWh under reference scenario in 2050 while DSM tends to result in a 26.38% decreased electricity demand compared to reference scenario. The alternative DSM scenarios also outperform the Reference scenario. In the year 2050, EC scenario reduce consumption by 178.0 TWh and GHG emissions by 19.20 million metric tons; EEF scenario reduce consumption by 110.30 TWh and GHG emissions by 10.04 million metric tons; and LOM scenario suggest reduced consumption by 101.0 TWh and GHG emissions by 6.20 million metric tons. This study concluded the DSM must be institutionalized in Pakistan by building a robust regulatory framework and execution mechanism at the government and utility levels.