AUTHOR=Nespoli Lorenzo , Medici Vasco 

TITLE=Global forecasting models for residential load flexibility and grid optimization

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Energy Research

VOLUME=Volume 13 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/energy-research/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2025.1547617

DOI=10.3389/fenrg.2025.1547617

ISSN=2296-598X

ABSTRACT=This article introduces a novel, simulation-based methodology to quantify and optimize the economic benefits of controlling flexible loads in a distribution system operator (DSO) grid without relying on historical consumption data. By training a non-parametric global forecasting model on simulated responses of electric water heaters (EHs) and heat pumps (HPs) to randomized control signals, we design an optimal control policy that not only captures the flexibility potential but also effectively mitigates rebound effects. Our results demonstrate that the forecaster’s high accuracy permits bypassing the full simulation during optimization, thereby significantly reducing computational requirements while ensuring near-real-time economic performance evaluations. These findings underscore the method’s potential for enhancing grid resilience and operational efficiency in modern energy systems.