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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Ecosystem Restoration
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1431027

Seas the Opportunity: Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Identify and Prioritise Blue Carbon Wetland Restoration Sites

Provisionally accepted
Alice Howie Alice Howie 1*Vera Rullens Vera Rullens 1Anita Nedosyko Anita Nedosyko 1,2Stella Kondylas Stella Kondylas 1Sophie K. Russell Sophie K. Russell 3Simon E. Reeves Simon E. Reeves 1,4Judith M. Ament Judith M. Ament 5Miguel Castro Miguel Castro 6Sharie Detmar Sharie Detmar 7
  • 1 The Nature Conservancy Australia, Carlton, Australia
  • 2 College Sciences and Engineering, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
  • 3 School of Biological Sciences and Environment Institute, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
  • 4 National Centre for Coasts and Climate, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
  • 5 The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, Virginia, United States
  • 6 The Nature Conservancy, Quito, Ecuador
  • 7 Coast and Marine Branch, Department for Environment and Water, Adelaide, SA, Australia

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The emergence of voluntary carbon markets is creating new opportunities to sustainably finance Natural Climate Solution (NCS) projects. In Australia, the federal government recently enacted the Tidal Restoration of Blue Carbon Ecosystems Methodology Determination 2022 (Tidal Reconnection Method), whereby restoration activities that reintroduce tidal flows to allow the reestablishment of coastal wetland (blue carbon) ecosystems, through the removal or modification of a tidal restriction, can be used to gain and sell Australian carbon credit units. Australia has the highest net blue carbon wealth in the world, with 5 -11% of global carbon stocks, yet there is currently a lack of large-scale feasibility assessments and supporting methodologies to identify and prioritise sites with the greatest potential for NCS project implementation to help inform investment decisions. In this study, we applied a spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to identify, map, and prioritise potential sites for blue carbon coastal wetland restoration in South Australia that meet criteria outlined in the Tidal Reconnection Method. This study compared information on 1) predicted flooding extent following tidal reconnection and under sea level rise (SLR; present-day, 2050 and 2100); 2) project implementation complexity (e.g. who possesses land tenure); and 3) carbon sequestration potential through predicted area of vegetation change under the above SLR scenarios. Our results identified 64 sites of interest, of which 32 received an overall 'high' prioritisation score of 3 or more out of 5. This equates to approximately 21,114 ha of high priority potential blue carbon restoration sites. The MCDA enables development of a portfolio of viable restoration projects through a rapid "desktop" prioritisation of sites of interest, which can then guide investment in further detailed cost/benefit feasibility assessments. This study demonstrates an adaptable MCDA approach to map potential NCS projects at meaningful spatial scales and in-line with carbon market-based opportunities.

    Keywords: Natural Climate Solutions (NCS), GIS, carbon market, Tidal marshes, Mangroves, Feasibility assessment, sea level rise, spatial modelling Manuscript length

    Received: 13 May 2024; Accepted: 26 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Howie, Rullens, Nedosyko, Kondylas, Russell, Reeves, Ament, Castro and Detmar. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Alice Howie, The Nature Conservancy Australia, Carlton, Australia

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.