AUTHOR=Zheng Xinhao , Chen Yuexin 

TITLE=A better strategy: using green GDP to measure economic health

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Environmental Science

VOLUME=Volume 12 - 2024

YEAR=2024

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1459764

DOI=10.3389/fenvs.2024.1459764

ISSN=2296-665X

ABSTRACT=Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most well-known and widely used measure of a country ’s economic health. However, GDP does not account for natural resources and environmental protection, leading to an incomplete picture of economic  well-being.  Therefore,  green  GDP  (GGDP)  should  be the  main  indicator  to measure  a  country ’ s economic  health.  This  paper, building  on  extensive  literature reviews,  internationally  accepted  GGDP  accounting methods, and  scholarly research, proposes  a new  GGDP calculation model. This model is divided into two main components: natural resource loss and environmental pollution loss, each further divided into primary factors. These factors are condensed into 13 sub-criteria reflecting sustainable development capacity. Principal component analysis is used to  identify representative  factors,  analyzing the relationship between these  factors,  GGDP, and  global mean temperature. The impact of each factor on temperature projections from 2020-2040 is also examined. Utilizing the Integrated Environmental Sustainability Index (IESI), a global temperature mitigation prediction model is established, considering epidemic factors, and sea and land temperatures in different climate regions. The results indicate a 74% probability that a positive GGDP growth rate is positively correlated with temperature change over 50 years. The GGDP model reveals development patterns and differences between global GDP and green GDP, and assesses the relationship between eco-efficiency, GGDP, and global mean temperature. Both green GDP and total GDP are rising, but green GDP is growing  significantly  slower. The  share  of GDP from natural resource-dependent activities has decreased from 90% in the 1970s to 80% in 2020, highlighting the increasing gap due to reliance on natural resources. This trend suggests declining overall ecological efficiency, increasing environmental pressure, and reduced potential for  sustainable  development.  Our  analysis  demonstrates  that  all  factors  are  proportional  to  global  temperature, indicating  that  natural  resource  utilization   and  pollution   emissions   significantly  impact  economic  growth  and temperature rise. Finally, we evaluate global sustainable development from economic and environmental perspectives, establishing a method for sustainable development assessment. Using Brazil as a case study, we apply the model to determine the values of each component and provide a comprehensive analysis and solutions.