ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Environmental Economics and Management
The Decoupling Dilemma in a Catch-Up Region: Dynamic Evolution and Pathways for Carbon Emissions Reduction in Jiangxi Province of China
Provisionally accepted
- Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University, Nanchang, China
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Achieving carbon decoupling presents a fundamental dilemma for less-developed regions striving for economic catchup while facing mounting emission reduction pressures. This study investigates this challenge through the case of Jiangxi Province, a typical less-developed, coal-dependent inland region in China. Utilizing data from 2000 to 2022, we estimate carbon emissions following IPCC guidelines and employ the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM) to decompose changes in emissions, overcoming the limitation of factor independence in conventional methods. The Tapio decoupling model is further applied to assess the dynamic relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. Results indicate that economic scale (cumulative contribution: 97.81%) and energy consumption (51%) are the primary drivers of emission growth, while carbon intensity of output (–47.38%) serves as the strongest inhibiting factor. Decoupling analysis reveals that weak decoupling is the dominant state (91% of the study periods), highlighting only a partial and unstable separation between economic growth and emissions. The persistent absence of strong decoupling underscores the core of the dilemma: the entrenched carbon dependency in a catching-up economy. Our findings suggest that for regions like Jiangxi, transcending this dilemma requires accelerating structural transitions in the energy system and fostering low-carbon industrial upgrading, moving beyond mere efficiency gains. This study elucidates the dynamics of the decoupling challenge and proposes actionable pathways for Jiangxi, offering a valuable reference for similar regions globally.
Keywords: carbon emissions, Factor decomposition, Tapio decoupling, GDIM, sustainable development
Received: 07 Oct 2025; Accepted: 10 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Youwei, Xinfa, MUSA DIRANE and Bin. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Tang Xinfa, xinfatang@sina.com
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