Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions trends from the livestock sector in Morocco

Abstract

Background:

Quantification of livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions is critical for understanding agriculture's role in climate change and for justifying appropriate mitigation measures. In this paper, a long-term assessment of methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from the Moroccan livestock sector is presented for the period 2000–2023.

Methods:

Enteric fermentation, manure management, and N₂O (direct and indirect) emissions were calculated using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies, based on the 2019 Refinement to the IPCC 2006 Guidelines, using species-specific livestock population data at the national and provincial levels.

Results:

Results indicate that total livestock GHG emissions increased from 10,693 Gg CO₂e in 2000 to a peak of 13,781 Gg CO₂e in 2019, before declining to 12,345 Gg CO₂e in 2023. Methane is the dominant greenhouse gas of total CH₄ emissions. Dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle, and sheep were the main contributors, while poultry showed an increasing contribution to N₂O emissions. There was significant spatial disparity in emissions between provinces with the most significant emissions being in major livestock production regions.

Conclusion:

The findings enhance transparency in national greenhouse gas inventories and provide a scientific foundation for determining mitigation priorities and for contributing to climate-smart livestock policy in Morocco.

1 Introduction

The livestock sector plays a central role in the global food systems, which reflect considerable amounts of food security, rural livelihoods, and national economies, but it is also one of the most anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. On the global level, the contribution of livestock supply chains to overall anthropogenic GHG emissions is estimated at around 14%–18% of total emissions, which is mainly due to methane (CH₄) produced by enteric fermentation and manure management, and nitrous oxide (N₂O) produced by manure management (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2006; Gerber et al., 2013; IPCC, 2019). The overcontribution of non-carbon dioxide (CO₂₎ gases, especially CH₄, reveals livestock production as a major area of concern in mitigating climate change and improving the accuracy of country GHG inventories.

Production systems, the herd composition, feed availability, and manure management practices are highly important in determining the GHG emissions of livestock in low and middle-income countries. Extensive/pastoral and agro-pastoral systems, which prevail in much of Africa and Asia, are typically characterized by low productivity, dependence on natural rangelands and crop residues, and limited use of better management practices. Such structural features tend to lead to relatively high product-unit emissions, despite a moderate level of absolute emissions (Herrero et al., 2016; Mottet et al., 2017). Bangladesh, India, Tunisia, South Africa, and Egypt empirical studies have repeatedly shown that more than 80%–90% of all livestock CH₄ emissions are due to enteric fermentation, with manure management sources contributing the remaining share, which, however, is large and cannot be ignored (Chhabra et al., 2013; Du Toit et al., 2014; Ammar et al., 2020; Das et al., 2020; Maze et al., 2024).

Several studies at the national scale have shown that long-term dynamics in livestock GHG emissions are highly influenced by animal population and their species structure changes, instead of a fast rise in productivity or emission efficiency (Caro et al., 2014; Chen et al., 2024; Lan et al., 2025). In South Asia and North Africa, emission trends have frequently been associated with the demographic dynamics of livestock production, which show the continued existence of traditional production systems and the scarcity of country-specific emission factors (Patra, 2014; Das et al., 2020). Conversely, those regions with a higher level of intensive livestock have different structures of emissions, which underscores the need to conduct context-related assessments to account for the emissions accurately (Skiba et al., 2013; Rust, 2018).

Morocco represents a particularly relevant and yet understudied case in this context. The country spans a variety of agro-ecological zones: humid and sub-humid in the North and arid and semi-arid in the Center and the South. The livestock sector is mainly composed of ruminants raised in extensive and semi-extensive systems. The animal production is directly connected with natural rangelands and rainfed cropping systems, which makes it highly sensitive to long-term climate change (Sraïri et al., 2013; El Aich, 2018; Driouech et al., 2021). At the same time, the transformation in the consumption trends and population density has led to slow structural adjustments in some subsectors that question the future development of livestock-related GHG emissions (Godber et al., 2016; Benayad et al., 2024).

Despite the socio-economic importance of livestock production in Morocco and the fact that the country has national frameworks to report on climate indicators, the current GHG inventories are largely based on national-level aggregated statistics and default emission factors. Existing national inventory reports include aggregate emissions in the agricultural sector and make gross estimates of CH₄ and N₂O related to livestock. These inventories usually, however, report emissions at a highly aggregated level, without disaggregation over long periods of time, tightly coupled species differentiation except over major categories, and no systematic mapping of the spatial distribution of the provincial level. As a result, the internal structural dynamics of livestock emissions such as the relative contributions of dairy versus non-dairy cattle, small ruminants, equids, camelids, and rapidly expanding poultry systems remain insufficiently explored. Moreover, the spatial heterogeneity of the various agro-ecological conditions in Morocco is not fully quantified hence failing to accurately identify emission hot spots and region-specific priorities in mitigation. Such scarcity of a long-term, species-disaggregated, spatially more exact evaluation is a significant limitation of the research in the Moroccan environment. Without this level of analysis, it becomes challenging to determine whether the current trends in emissions are largely influenced by changes in the size of livestock population, structural changes in the production systems, or changes in management practices. Further, provincial mapping absence limits the development of specific, climate-smart livestock policies which can meet the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Morocco and agricultural policies.

2 Methods and materials

2.1 Study area

Morocco is located in northwestern Africa, approximately between 21° and 36° N latitude and 1° and 17° W longitude, surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean to the West, the Mediterranean Sea to the North, Algeria to the East, and Mauritania to the South (Figure 1). Morocco is administratively organized into 12 regions, which are further subdivided into 75 provinces.

FIGURE 1

The climate in Morocco varies between the Mediterranean in the coastal areas to the North to arid and semi-arid in the Central and Southern areas of the country. The average annual temperature ranges from 15 °C to 30 °C, with higher temperatures in the drier interior regions. The amount of precipitation is very wide with less than 200 mm of rainfall in arid areas and over 800 mm of rainfall in mountainous areas (Alvarez and Govind, 2025). In recent years, Morocco has been experiencing significant climatic changes, with the increase in temperature and alteration of the distribution of rainfall (Driouech et al., 2021; World Bank Group, 2021). Such climatic changes influence the availability of feed, animal productivity, manure management practices, and the potential to produce CH₄ (Cheng et al., 2022; Anuta et al., 2025).

2.2 Livestock system

In Morocco, agriculture is a strategic socio-economic sector with an estimated contribution of 13% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and around 40% of the working population (Elalaoui et al., 2021; Bekkaoui et al., 2024). Livestock production is a significant segment of the agricultural sector and is directly linked to crop production, especially in rainfed and mixed crop-livestock production.

Morocco’s livestock management systems are predominantly extensive and semi-extensive, particularly for small ruminants, which largely depend on natural rangelands and crop residues. Cattle production consists of both the traditional smallholder and more intensive dairy operation located near urban and peri-urban areas (Sraïri et al., 2013; Godber et al., 2016; El Aich, 2018).

Urbanization, demographic pressure, and intensification of animal production have increased reliance on external inputs, raising concerns regarding environmental sustainability and GHG emissions associated with livestock production in Morocco (Benayad et al., 2024; El Balghity et al., 2025).

The management approaches to manure are characterized by high variability, where the manure can be directly applied on the pastures or stored in the forms of solid deposits within the short term and near the farms (Erraji et al., 2021). The potentials of CH₄ emissions are also significant since the availability of anaerobic treatment technologies and liquid manure systems is still low (Karouach et al., 2024; Ngetuny et al., 2025). Given that climatic zones, composition of livestock species and manure management practices differ, Morocco becomes a fitting case study on the assessment of GHG emissions on livestock systems.

2.3 Livestock population data

In the Moroccan case study, livestock species were aggregated into distinct categories: cattle (dairy and non-dairy), sheep, goats, equids (horses, asses, and mules), camelids, chickens (laying and broiler), and turkeys. The activity data consisted of annual livestock population records for each animal category covering the period 2000–2023. These data were compiled at the national level from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statistical database (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2026) and cross-checked with official statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture of Morocco. These data were compiled at the national level for each animal category and used as annual activity data in the emission calculations. The FAO database was selected due to its availability of a consistent and continuous time series of all study years whereas official ministry statistics served to verify and complement the data. The provincial livestock data were estimated based on the official statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture of Morocco.

2.4 Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock

In this study, the system boundary is defined at the national and provincial levels. The assessment includes only direct non-CO₂ emissions (CH₄ and N₂O) generated by livestock within the production unit, in accordance with the source categories described in the 2019 Refinement to the IPCC 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2019). All equations employed in this study are based on the IPCC (2006) Guidelines and their 2019 Refinement, which offer internationally accepted and commonly used methodologies of estimating and reporting greenhouse gases. These are common techniques applied in reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to maintain comparability, methodological consistency and transparency at both national and international level.

To apply IPCC default parameters, Morocco was modeled as part of the Middle East regional grouping used in the 2019 IPCC Refinement to livestock emission factors, which is in line with the application of aggregated regional defaults to countries with similar production conditions. Considering the composition of the national herd, the cattle sector was considered as a mixed productivity system, which captures the co-existence of the low-productivity extensive systems and the higher-productivity semi-intensive dairy systems, but small ruminants were considered under the low-productivity systems. To manage manure, Morocco fell under a temperate climate regime, based on IPCC definition in terms of mean annual temperature, as a simplified national-average scenario in the Tier 1 approach. A similar Tier 1 application was reported in Egypt, where the methane emission factors were also chosen based on a temperate climate and the regional grouping of the Middle East, as well as low-productivity systems (Maze et al., 2024).

Emissions occurring upstream of the farm-gate, such as those associated with feed production, fertilizer manufacturing, fuel use for feed transport, or land-use change related to feed cultivation, are not included. Similarly, downstream emissions related to processing, transport, retail, or consumption of animal products fall outside the scope of this assessment.

The objective of adopting a national and provincial boundary is to provide a consistent, inventory-aligned estimation of livestock-related emissions that are methodologically compatible with national greenhouse gas reporting frameworks. Therefore, the results represent emissions directly attributable to biological processes and manure handling within livestock production systems in Morocco, rather than full life-cycle supply chain emissions.

2.4.1 Methane emission

Methane is a primary GHG produced during livestock production. It is emitted mainly through enteric fermentation during digestion and through the anaerobic decomposition of manure (IPCC, 2006).

2.4.1.1 Methane emissions from enteric fermentation

Enteric fermentation was estimated using the IPCC Tier 1 methodology, based on default emission factors provided in the 2019 Refinement to the IPCC 2006 Guidelines. These emission factors were selected according to livestock category and production system. No country-specific emission factors were available for Morocco; therefore, default IPCC values were applied consistently across the study period. Annual livestock population data were disaggregated by the animal category, including dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle, sheep, goats, horses, asses and mules, and camelids. Each category was assigned default CH₄ emission factors provided in the 2019 Refinement to the IPCC 2006 guidelines.

Enteric fermentation emissions (E_T, Gg CH₄) for each livestock category were estimated using Equation 1:

Where E_(T,P) is the emission factor for the livestock category T under production system P; N_{(T, P)} is the number of animals of category T in production system P; T denotes the livestock category; and P denotes the production system.

The mean annual livestock population (N_T) was calculated using the Equation 2:

Where NAPA is the number of animals produced per year; Days_alive represents the average lifespan within the reporting year.

Total CH₄ emissions from enteric fermentation (Total CH₄ Enteric, Gg CH₄) were calculated by summing emissions across all livestock categories and production systems using the Equation 3:

Where E_i,p represents methane emissions from livestock category i under production systems (P).

2.4.1.2 Methane emissions from manure management

The CH₄ emission factor from manure management was calculated according to the IPCC (2019) methodology using Equation 4:

Where EF_(T) is the annual CH₄ emission factor for livestock category T (kg CH₄.animal^-1);

VS_T the daily volatile solid excreted for livestock category T (kg dry matter.animal^-1.day^-1); 365 converts daily volatile solids to annual production (days/year); B_0(T) is the maximum CH₄ producing capacity of manure produced for livestock category T (m³ CH₄.kg^-1 of VS excreted); 0.67 converts m³ CH₄ to kilograms CH₄, MCF_(S,k) is the CH₄ conversion factors for the manure management system S under climate region k (%) (MCF(S,k) was set at 1.5%, in accordance with the default value proposed in the 2019 Refinement to the IPCC 2006 Guidelines (IPCC, 2019), and consistent with its application under comparable North African conditions by Ammar et al. (2020) for Tunisia; AWMS_(T,S,k) is the fraction of livestock category T managed in system S under climate region k (dimensionless).

Total CH₄ emissions (enteric fermentation + manure management) were converted to CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e), using Global Warming Potential (GWP) according to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) using the Equation 5:

The emission factor for enteric fermentation and the parameters used in calculating manure management emission factors are presented in Table 1.

2.4.2 Nitrous oxide emission from manure management

N₂O emissions from manure management include both direct and indirect components.

2.4.2.1 Direct N2O emissions from manure management

Annual direct N₂O emission (N₂O_{D (mm),} kg N₂O) were calculated using Equation 6:

Where Nex_(T,P) is the annual N excretion per head for livestock category T and production system P (kg N animal^-1 yr^-1); AWMS_(T,S,P) is the fraction of nitrogen managed for livestock category T managed in manure management system S; EF_3(S) is the emission factor for direct N2O-N/kg N emissions from manure management system S i; N_cdg(s) refers to nitrogen input via co-digestate (applicable only to anaerobic digestion system (kg N.yr^-1)); 44/28 converts N2O-N_(mm) to N₂O_(mm).

2.4.2.2 Indirect N2O emissions from manure management

Indirect N₂O emissions arise from nitrogen (N) losses through volatilization and leaching during manure handling and storage.

Annual indirect N₂O emissions due to the volatilization (N₂O_{G (mm),} Kg N₂O) were estimated based on Equation 7:

Where EF₄ is the emission factor for N₂O emissions from atmospheric deposition of N on soils and water surfaces.

Indirect N₂O emissions from N volatilization in manure management systems (N_{volatilization-MMS,} kg N) were calculated using the Equation 8:

Where Frac_{gasMS (T,S)} is the fraction of manure nitrogen volatilized as NH₃ and NO_x.

Annual indirect N₂O emissions (N₂O_{L (mm),} Kg N₂O) due to the leaching were estimated using the Equation 9:

Where EF₅ is the emission factor for N₂O emissions from N leaching and runoff.

N leaching f (N_leaching-MMS) was calculated using the Equation 10:

Where Frac_{LeachMS (T,S)} is the fraction of managed manure N that is lost through leaching.

The total N₂O emissions (direct and indirect) were converted to CO₂e using GWP according to the IPCC (AR6) using the Equation 11:

Emissions were calculated annually for each livestock category and then aggregated at national and provincial levels. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions were first estimated in mass units and subsequently converted to CO₂ equivalents using the GWP values from the IPCC (AR6).

The parameters used in these calculations are presented in Table 2.

The methodological framework used in the study is in line with the IPCC (2019) guidelines and is consistent with the main principles of measurement, reporting, and verification, such as transparency, consistency, and reproducibility. The standardized emission factors, well-delimited boundaries of the system, and publicly accessible activity data make sure that the estimates are reproducible and can be included in national systems of greenhouse gas inventories (IPCC, 2019; Tsigkas et al., 2026).

2.4.3 Spatial mapping of emissions

GIS (Geographic Information System)-based mapping was used to illustrate the provincial spatial distribution of livestock CH₄ emissions across Morocco. Due to the absence of provincial-level poultry statistics, spatial estimates of the CH₄, N₂O, and total GHG emissions were derived exclusively from the distribution of cattle (dairy and non-dairy), sheep, and goat populations.

Provincial administrative boundary shapefiles were associated with the estimated values of emissions, and processed in QGIS (version 3.44.5) to create thematic maps that would indicate the spatial variability as well as the emission hotspots in the country.

The combination of publicly available livestock data, standardized IPCC emission factors and clearly defined calculation procedures make the findings of this study completely reproducible.

3 Results

3.1 Temporal livestock population trends

Between 2000 and 2023, livestock populations in Morocco showed contrasting trends across animal categories (Figures 2, 3). Sheep remained the dominant species, increasing from about 17.3 million heads in 2000 to a peak of 22.7 million in 2021 (+31%), before declining to 20.7 million in 2023 (−9%). The goats followed a similar pattern, rising from 4.9 million to over 6.2 million in 2021 (+26%) and then decreasing to 5.64 million in 2023 (−9%). Cattle populations grew moderately until the late 2010s. Dairy cattle increased from 1.07 million heads in 2000 to 1.38 million in 2018, before declining to 1.15 million in 2023. Non-dairy cattle peaked at 2.06 million heads in 2018 (+29%) and decreased to 1.73 million by 2023 (−17%). Horse numbers remained relatively stable, while asses and mules gradually declined. Camelid populations were consistently low and decreased further after 2015. In contrast, poultry production expanded substantially. Broiler numbers increased from about 154 million in 2000 to over 430 million in 2023 (+180%), while laying hens rose from 12.0 million to nearly 23.7 million (+97%). Turkey’s population also increased steadily, reaching 14.3 million by 2023 (+363% relative to 2000).

FIGURE 2

FIGURE 3

Overall, the data indicate a dual livestock dynamic in Morocco: relative stability or recent decline in the ruminant populations, particularly after 2018, alongside rapid expansion and intensification of poultry production.

3.2 Methane emissions

3.2.1 Methane emissions from enteric fermentation

Methane emissions from enteric fermentation fluctuated from 2000 to 2023 (Figure 4). Non-dairy cattle were the largest contributors, accounting for approximately 30%–32% of the total enteric emissions, reaching 2,686 to 3,456 Gg CO₂e at peak levels. Dairy cattle contributed about 26%–28%, ranging from 2,245 to nearly 2,919 Gg CO₂e. Sheep represented a comparable share (26%–30%), rising from around 2413 Gg CO₂e in 2000 to over 3,170 Gg CO₂e in 2021. Goats contributed a smaller proportion (8%–9%) with emissions between 688 and 870 Gg CO₂e. In contrast, horses, asses and mules, and camelids jointly accounted for less than 8% of total enteric CH₄ emissions throughout the study period; individually, emissions remained below 96 Gg CO₂e for horses, 450 Gg CO₂e for asses and mules, and 257 Gg CO₂e for camelids.

FIGURE 4

3.2.2 Methane emissions from manure management

Methane emissions from manure management were significantly lower than from that enteric fermentation but showed an overall increasing trend during the study period, rising from 221 Gg CO₂e in 2000 to a peak of 300 Gg CO₂e in 2019. Cattle were the largest contributors, with dairy and non-dairy cattle jointly accounting for approximately 43%–46% of the total manure-related emissions (about 100–128 Gg CO₂e annually). Sheep contributed 21%–22%, reaching around 63 Gg CO₂e at their peak, while goats accounted for 6%–7%. Horses, asses and mules, and camelids together represent 9%–16% of the total emissions. Poultry manure made a non-negligible contribution (10%–15%), particularly after 2010, mainly driven by the expansion of broiler production (Figure 5).

FIGURE 5

3.2.3 Total methane emissions from livestock

Total CH₄ emissions from livestock in Morocco were increased between 2000 and 2019, rising from 9,000 Gg CO₂e in 2000 to a peak of 11,010 Gg CO₂e in 2019 (a 22% increase), before declining to 9,859 Gg CO₂e in 2023. Enteric fermentation remained the dominant source throughout the study period, accounting for approximately 96%–98% of the total CH₄ emissions, while manure management contributed a relatively small but consistent share of 2%–4%.

3.3 Nitrous oxide emissions

Total N₂O emissions followed a similar trend, increasing from approximately 1,698 Gg CO₂e in 2000 to 2,771 Gg CO₂e in 2019, then decreasing to 2,674 Gg CO₂e in 2023 (Figure 6). Non-dairy cattle were the largest contributors (25%–27%), followed by dairy cattle (18%–22%). Poultry, particularly broiler chicken, showed a steadily growing contribution after 2010. Sheep and goats accounted for 10%–13%, while horses, asses and mules, and camelids contributed marginal and relatively stable shares over time.

FIGURE 6

Direct emissions associated with manure management were a major source of total N₂O emissions, accounting for 79%–80% of emissions during the study period. These emissions increased from 1,349 Gg CO₂e in 2000 and 2,227 Gg CO₂e in 2019, before declining to 2,000 Gg CO₂e in 2023. Cattle and poultry were the main contributors, reflecting higher N excretion rates and manure management practices. Indirect emissions represented the second largest share, contributing approximately 12%–15% of the total N₂O emissions. These emissions increased from 248 Gg CO₂e in 2000 to nearly 344 Gg CO₂e in 2019, followed by a slight decrease. Indirect emissions from N leaching and runoff accounted for a smaller but stable proportion total emissions, increased from 102 Gg CO₂e in 2000 to approximately 200 Gg CO₂e in 2019. Poultry manure were the primary sources of leaching related emissions, while ruminants contributed more evenly to the volatilization related losses (Figure 7).

FIGURE 7

3.4 Total GHG emissions

Total GHG emissions from livestock increased from 10,693 Gg CO₂e in 2000 to a peak of 13,781 Gg CO₂e in 2019, and before declining to 12,345 Gg CO₂e in 2023, representing an overall increase of approximately 28.9% over the study period (Figure 8). Non-dairy cattle were the largest contributors, accounting for approximately 30%–31% total emissions, followed by dairy cattle (23%–25%) and sheep (22%–24%). Goats contributed approximately 7%, while poultry, particularly broiler chickens, showed a steadily increasing share after 2010. In contrast, horses, asses and mules, and camelids each accounted for less than 4% of the total emission throughout the period.

FIGURE 8

3.5 Mapping provincial livestock emissions in Morocco

Figure 9 presents the spatial distribution of CH₄, N₂O, and total GHG emissions from livestock across Moroccan provinces in 2023. A pronounced spatial variability is observed. There was a high level of spatial variability in livestock-related GHG emissions in Moroccan provinces. El Jadida (485 Gg CO₂e) and Khemisset (471 Gg CO₂e) recorded the highest total emissions, reflecting their high livestock densities. In contrast, provinces with limited livestock activity, such as Aoussered, Boujdour, and Es-Semara showed very low emissions levels.

FIGURE 9

Methane accounted for the largest share of total emissions in all provinces, generally representing 80%–90% of the total, while N₂O contributed a smaller but still relevant proportion. The relative contribution of CH₄ and N₂O remained constant across provinces, indicating that differences in total emissions are primarily driven by livestock density rather than variations in emission structure.

4 Discussion

4.1 Discussion of emission patterns and comparison with previous studies

The presented results provide a detailed assessment of GHG emissions from the Moroccan livestock sector, highlighting both magnitude and structural composition over time (Figures 4–8). The findings clearly show that aggregate GHG emissions are predominantly driven by CH₄, while N₂O contributes a smaller but non-negligible share. This emission profile reflects a ruminant-dominated livestock system and is consistent with national-scale estimates reported in comparable agro-ecological and production contexts, including Tunisia, Bangladesh, India, and South Africa (Ammar et al., 2020; Das et al., 2020; Chhabra et al., 2013; Du Toit et al., 2014).

The current study provides an estimate of total livestock GHG emissions of 13,051 Gg CO2e in 2022, which is approximately 25% higher than the last record reported for 2022 by Morocco’s official national GHG inventory to the UNFCCC (10,433 Gg CO2e) (Ministry of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development, 2026). Differences may occur due to updates in the activity data, recalibration procedures, or methodological improvements followed in applied in successive national communications.

Throughout the study period, CH₄ accounted for the major proportion of total livestock GHG emissions (Figures 4, 5). The temporal pattern of CH₄ emission closely follows changes in livestock population size and species composition, indicating that emission dynamics are primarily driven by structural factors rather than rapid technological improvement or gain in emission efficiency. Similar population-driven trend has been reported in Bangladesh and Egypt, where livestock CH₄ emissions reflect herd expansion rather than reduction emission intensity (Das et al., 2020; Maze et al., 2024). In contrast, evidence from India suggests that partial decoupling between animal number and CH₄ emission may occur in more specialized dairy systems, underscoring the importance of production system characteristics (Chhabra et al., 2013; Patra, 2014).

The temporal livestock population and emission trends observed in Morocco reflect the combined effects of demographic, climatic, and market-related factors. The increase in emissions during the first part of the study period is likely linked to the growth in livestock populations, particularly cattle, sheep, goats, and poultry, in response to rising demand for animal source foods and the continued socio-economic importance of livestock production (Elalaoui et al., 2021). This expansion in animal numbers likely contributed directly to higher CH₄ and N₂O emissions, as population growth remains the main driver of emission increases under inventory-based approaches (Herrero et al., 2016; Havlík et al., 2014).

The peak in ruminant related emissions observed around 2018–2020 may be explained by the relatively high herd sizes reached before the onset of stronger climatic constraints (Figure 2). Subsequent declines in ruminant populations and emissions were likely associated with recurrent drought, reduced pasture availability, and increased fodder costs, which can lead to herd destocking, especially in extensive and semi-extensive systems. These factors are particularly relevant in Morocco, where ruminant production depends strongly on natural rangelands and rainfed feed resources (Sraïri et al., 2013; El Aich, 2018; Driouech et al., 2021).

On the contrary, the population and emissions of poultry kept growing throughout the study (Figure 3). This pattern is probably an indication of the intensive growth and development of poultry production that is not as reliant on grazing land and responds better to the demand of urban food. It can also be linked to the fact that market price and consumer access to poultry meat is relatively cheaper than that of red meat which can support increased consumption of poultry and further development of the sector (Benayad et al., 2024; Grossi et al., 2019).

In comparison, N₂O emissions represent a smaller share of the total livestock-related GHG emissions (Figure 6). This relatively low contribution is consistent with the manure management practices dominated by direct deposition on pasture and dry handling system (solid storage), which are less conducive to high N₂O production. Similar emission structures have been reported in South Africa and Bangladesh (Du Toit et al., 2014; Das et al., 2020). Nevertheless, despite their lower magnitude, N₂O emissions remain significant due to their high GWP, particularly in contexts where poultry production and manure storage are expanding.

A distinct difference is observed between enteric fermentation and manure management in terms of CH₄ emission (Figures 4, 5). Enteric fermentation is the dominant source, which accounts for the vast majority of total CH₄ emissions throughout the study period. This finding is consistent with the physiological characteristics of ruminants and with the national inventories from India, Tunisia, and Malaysia; where enteric fermentation typically represents more than 80%–90% of livestock CH₄ emission (Johnson and Johnson, 1995; Chhabra et al., 2013; Ammar et al., 2020; Yusuf et al., 2012). The dominance of enteric CH₄ highlights the importance of feeding habits, forage quality, and herd composition in shaping the overall emission profile. In contrast, CH₄ emissions from manure management remain relatively low in absolute terms (Figure 5). This reflects the structural characteristics of the Moroccan livestock sector, where confined housing systems and liquid manure storage are limited. Similar patterns were documented in Egypt and South Africa, where manure-related CH₄ represent minor share of total livestock emissions (Du Toit et al., 2014; Maze et al., 2024). By comparison, higher manure-related CH₄ emissions have been reported to be significantly more intense in countries such as Turkey and Mexico, where intensive housing systems and anaerobic storage systems create conditions favorable for CH₄ production (Chadwick et al., 2011; Rendón-Huerta et al., 2018; Ersoy and Ugurlu, 2020). Therefore, the comparatively low manure-related emissions observed here are primarily characteristic of the production system rather than methodological limitations.

The differences in emissions among animal categories are largely attributed to differences in digestive physiology, livestock population size, and manure management practices. Ruminants, especially cattle and small ruminants, have the highest proportion of total emissions due to their inclusion of large amounts of enteric methane in the digestive process, and poultry has a proportionally larger contribution to manure-related N 2O emissions because of manure handling properties and the rapid growth of the sector (Gerber et al., 2013; Grossi et al., 2019; Yan et al., 2024).

Overall, the emission patterns observed in this study are consistent with the IPCC Tier 1 assumptions for ruminant-dominated livestock systems (IPCC, 2019). While this alignment supports the robustness of the national level estimates, comparisons with Tier 2 approaches suggest that country-specific emission factors could further refine enteric CH₄ estimates (Patra, 2014; Ammar et al., 2020).

However, when Tier 1 default emission factors are used in semi-arid grazing regimes, including those existing in Morocco, structural bias could be introduced. Extensive pastoral and agropastoral systems are typified by seasonal feed fluctuations, low-digestibility forages, and variable animal body condition, neither of which can be completely explained through generic default factors. This can in turn cause an over- or underestimation of the CH₄ emissions as a function of the representativeness of the assumed feed-energy intake and productivity parameters.

In addition to the national trends described above, the marked differences observed among provinces require further interpretation (Figure 9). The geographical difference in livestock related emissions between Moroccan provinces is probably due to the combination of agro-ecological, structural and market-related factors. The provinces that emit more are usually those with a higher livestock density, better grazing and feed availability, and better integration of crop-livestock systems. On the other hand, provinces where pastures are scarce or the population is low are likely to favor smaller herd sizes due to the less favorable climatic conditions. Spatial variation can also indicate closeness to large consumption centres that can affect the concentration of livestock production systems that are more market oriented. Thus, the livestock population size cannot be considered the only reason why the patterns of emissions in provinces are different, but also the variations in natural resources, production conditions, and demand in the region.

From a mitigation perspective, the predominance of enteric CH₄ indicates that improvements in feed quality, diet digestibility, and animal productivity offer the greatest potential for reducing emission intensity (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2013; IPCC, 2019). Simultaneously, evolving manure management systems, particularly in emerging intensive subsectors, should be carefully monitored to prevent future increases in manure-related CH₄ and N₂O emissions.

4.2 Study limitations

The estimates of GHG emissions in this study were derived from based on combined livestock statistics and IPCC default emission factors under Tier 1 methodology. While this approach ensures methodological consistency with international reporting standards, it may not capture the local variations in animal productivity, feeding regime, manure management systems, and agro-ecological conditions specific to Morocco. Distribution of emissions on the sub-national or provincial level was constrained by the availability of granular information especially when it came to poultry production indicators. The absence of detailed subnational statistics may influence the precision of emission hotspot identification. Despite this, the spatially explicit and methodologically consistent estimates produced in the current study also help to enhance the measurement, reporting, and verification systems by improving the transparency and robustness of national livestock greenhouse gas inventories (Tsigkas et al., 2026).

4.3 Livestock methane mitigation and regional implications

The mitigation of livestock GHG emissions in Morocco requires the combination of both current scientific knowledge and contextually suitable practices to suit the semi-arid climate and mainly large-scale production systems. At the national scale, where methane emissions are mostly due to enteric fermentation, livestock mitigation policies in Morocco must first target ruminant systems, which contribute the highest portion of the total sectoral emissions.

Advanced livestock CH₄ mitigation has been found to be a key pillar in national climate action in Morocco by a comparative analysis of mitigation pathways of agricultural emissions, alongside precision nutrient management and soil carbon enhancement (Hajib et al., 2026). Individualized interventions that focus on enteric CH₄ reduction by improving diet quality, feed additives, and rumen-specific management have shown promise in reducing CH₄ generation without affecting animal productivity (Malyugina et al., 2025). These tactics include the use of tannins, saponins, essential oils, and rumen-specific inhibitors like 3-nitrooxypropanol (3-NOP), which are proved to reduce the production of CH₄ by altering rumen fermentation pathways (Malyugina et al., 2025). Although most of these methods have been designed to work in more intensive systems, their adoption to fit the mixed systems in Morocco, such as mixed grazing and feedlot systems, and capacity building and incentive systems, may facilitate increased implementation.

Through FAO-supported emerging national initiatives, the mitigation of CH₄ in the livestock supply chain, in the dairy and red meat sectors, is intended to be reinforced, which, in turn, will align the livestock development with the climate commitments of Morocco under its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and under its strategy Generation Green 2020–2030 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and Government of Morocco, 2025).

An integrated mix of genetic selection of low-emission animals, optimal feeding methods, and enhanced manure management, designed to meet the specifics of the local environment, will be necessary to exploit the potential of mitigation. However, the feasibility of these actions and their possible implementation require additional evaluation in the framework of local production limitations.

In addition to enteric methane mitigation strategies, recent studies emphasize the importance of system-level approaches that complement farm-level interventions. Improved grazing management and feed system optimization can enhance overall efficiency and reduce emissions intensity, while better integration of crop–livestock systems can improve nutrient cycling and resource use efficiency. Other long-term mitigation pathways are breeding and herd management strategies that are aimed at optimizing feed conversion efficiency and productivity. These plans highlight the importance of combining the interventions at nutritional, management, and system levels to guarantee the long-term decrease in livestock system emissions (Havlík et al., 2014; Herrero et al., 2016; Grossi et al., 2019).

In addition to enteric emissions, manure management chain opportunities are as well vital. Good practices involve better management of manure when housed, better storage and treatment (e.g., composting, anaerobic digestion) and proper field application methods. These can achieve a substantial decrease in both the emissions of CH₄ and N₂O, but trade-offs between the types of emissions can occur. Moreover, the importance of life cycle and whole-system approaches is becoming more apparent to determine hotspots of emissions and create comprehensive mitigation plans in livestock systems (Yan et al., 2024).

The geographical distribution of emissions also indicates that mitigation is to be region-specific. Provinces with high emissions, e.g., high livestock density, high crop-livestock integration, can have more short-term potential interventions, which can focus on feed quality, herd management, and manure management. Conversely, mitigation strategies in drier and more resource-limited provinces must be modified to graze constraints, feed shortages, and the dominance of large-scale systems. These differences suggest that a nationwide mitigation policy might not be as efficient as a spatially differentiated policy that is determined by provincial production factors and emission patterns.

5 Conclusion

The livestock sector is a significant contributor of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases in the agricultural sector of Morocco, with CH₄ as the dominant component. According to the time-series livestock statistics for the period 2000–2023, a comprehensive species-disaggregated greenhouse gas emission inventory was constructed at the national and provincial levels. The results showed that total livestock-related emissions increased from 10,693 Gg CO₂e in 2000 to a peak of 13,781 Gg CO₂e in 2019, before declining to 12,345 Gg CO₂e in 2023. These emissions were mainly driven by methane released from enteric fermentation, while manure management made a smaller but still non-negligible contribution (2%–4%).

Ruminant livestock, specifically cattle and small ruminants, were found to contribute most to methane emissions, as it is the production systems with increased scale and semi-extensive production, and also due to the dependency on natural rangelands and crop residues. The emissions of nitrous oxide by manure management were relatively small, yet also applicable, particularly to poultry systems, which are the primary contributors of N₂O emissions in the livestock industry. Temporal analysis reveals that the total emission changes are highly correlated with the changes in the livestock population size and species composition, but not with the efficiency of the emission.

The provincial level assessment indicated a high level of spatial heterogeneity in the determination of greenhouse gas emissions, where the greatest emission intensities were found in regions distinguished by densities of livestock and mixed crop-livestock systems. These spatial patterns underline the importance of disaggregated inventories to identify the emission hotspots as well as support more specific mitigation actions. Comprehensively, the current research paper offers the initial long-term, consistent, and spatially explicit evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions of the Moroccan livestock sector.

The produced inventory forms a fundamental foundation of the enhanced national GHG reporting, and the support of the incorporation of livestock emissions in spatially specific, multi-source greenhouse gas inventories. The findings also form a rich basis for evaluating mitigation strategies as well as inform policy actions to facilitate sustainable livestock production and mitigation of climate change in semi-arid production systems like those common in Morocco.

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