AUTHOR=Zheng Keao , Zhang Junyan , Xu Tingting , Li Fangyu , Li Feng , Zeng Jing , Guo Yimeng , Hao Zhiying 

TITLE=Establishment and validation of a survival prediction model for stage IV non-small cell lung cancer: a real-world study

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Immunology

VOLUME=Volume 16 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/immunology/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2025.1508721

DOI=10.3389/fimmu.2025.1508721

ISSN=1664-3224

ABSTRACT=ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to develop and validate a predictive model for predicting survival in individual advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients by integrating basic patient information and clinical data.MethodsA total of 462 patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer collected from Shanxi Cancer Hospital were randomly assigned (in a 7:3 ratio) to a training cohort and an internal validation cohort. Independent factors affecting patients’ 3-year survival were screened and predictive models were created by using a single-factor followed by multifactor Cox regression analysis. Evaluate the performance of the model using the consistency index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). The collected patients who received chemotherapy alone and those who received chemotherapy combined with immunotherapy were statistically paired using propensity score matching between the two groups, and subgroup analyses were performed among the screened variables.ResultsA better prognostic model was created and a nomogram chart visualizing the model was drawn. Based on the median risk score of the training cohort, all individuals were categorized into high- and low-risk groups, with the high-risk group having worse OS in both cohorts (P<0.05). The results of subgroup analysis showed that chemotherapy alone versus chemotherapy combined with immunotherapy in patients with advanced NSCLC affected OS.ConclusionA clinical predictive model was developed to predict 3-year survival in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer. The study demonstrated that chemotherapy combined with immunotherapy is superior to chemotherapy alone.