AUTHOR=Ring Michael , Rodríguez-Ocampo Paola Elizabeth , Silva Rodolfo , Mendoza Edgar 

TITLE=Extreme Value Analysis of Ocean Currents in the Mexican Caribbean Based on HYCOM Numerical Model Data

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Marine Science

VOLUME=Volume 9 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.866874

DOI=10.3389/fmars.2022.866874

ISSN=2296-7745

ABSTRACT=In designing offshore structures and ocean current turbines, comprehensive knowledge of extreme values
is required. However, data on the return levels of ocean currents are rarely available. This is the case
for the Mexican Caribbean, where a vast potential of energy has recently been detected in the ocean
currents. This paper compares long-term numerical data from the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model for a
depth of 50m and short-term empirical data for a depth of 49m in the Mexican Caribbean. Based on
the numerical data, an extreme value analysis was conducted using the peaks over threshold method and
fitting a generalized Pareto distribution through the data. The method relies on filtering peaks with a
moving time window and an automated threshold selection, based on a reparameterized scale parameter
of the generalized Pareto distribution. The numerical model is shown to overestimate the empirical
data (i.e., 25% on average), leading to conservative results for this type of study. The method showed
consistent results over the domain, with some anomalies at the boundaries of the underlying numerical
model. The methodology is seen to be suitable for estimating the return levels based on ocean currents
from the numerical model, although, more research is necessary to reduce the error of the numerical
model and decrease the implicit safety factor of the results.