AUTHOR=Malvarez Gonzalo , Navas Fatima , del Rio José Luis TITLE=Assessment and projections of sediment budget resilience in Marbella, Spain JOURNAL=Frontiers in Marine Science VOLUME=Volume 9 - 2022 YEAR=2022 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.933994 DOI=10.3389/fmars.2022.933994 ISSN=2296-7745 ABSTRACT=This paper discusses that the beaches of Marbella, in the southwestern Mediterranean coast of Spain, may no longer stay in its natural resilience envelope due to a critically delicate natural sediment transport balance and a degree of artificialisation that has entered the whole sedimentary system into a new resilience state. The combination of vigorous terrain and millenary human action and disruptions across and alongshore on the coastline have increased stress on sediment availability. Although sediment circulation in the coastal cell has often been studied, the investigation of the connection between soil loss and river sediment transport and retention at a major dam remains a challenge. In this article, a first-order sediment yield prediction was established by using a GIS-based model applied on the area's main river basin and validation of model results is provided by empirical measurements of sedimentation in the main reservoir lake of La Concepción using D_GPS/Echo sounder combination and measurements from Remotely Piloted Aircraft compared with pre-construction blue print topography documenting spot heights where sediments accumulated or eroded over 50 years. The marine circulation is interpreted from previous research of the authors that established a source-sink pattern similar to Atlantic platform fed marine system that originated the significant Cabopino dunes. The significant erodibility that we have estimated seems matched by potentially high sediment accumulation rates along selected profiles and spot heights across the bottom of the reservoir lake and, in combination to the marine circulation model, our results identify that sediment budget key elements in Mediterranean settings, such as soil loss, sediment entrapment in reservoirs and the coastal marine circulation, is in a state of deficit that suggests that the resilience envelope is surpassed and the system as a whole is entering a new resilience state in which the engineering factor is key. Some ecosystem services, such as the protection offered by the natural resilience of the beach and dune system of Cabopino, are no longer recoverable in the current artificialisation state of the system as a whole.