AUTHOR=Luo Lin , Meng Zhao , Ma Weiwei , Huang Jingwen , Zheng Youchang , Feng Yang , Li Yineng , Liu Yonglin , Huang Yuanguang , Zhu Yuhang 

TITLE=The second-generation real-time ecological environment prediction system for the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Marco Greater Bay Area: Model setup, validation, improvements, and online visualization

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Marine Science

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2023

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1096435

DOI=10.3389/fmars.2023.1096435

ISSN=2296-7745

ABSTRACT=The Pearl River Estuary (PRE) is the largest and most biologically diverse estuary in South China, which provides crucial habitats and natural resources for native and migratory species; therefore, it has high economic value. With the rapidly growing population and socioeconomic development of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Marco Greater Bay Area of China, inputs of diverse contaminants, such as nutrients, sewage discharge, and new pollutants have rapidly increased. This poses threats to the water quality of PRE. To provide valuable information to assist governors, stakeholders, and decision-makers in tracking changes in environmental conditions, daily nowcasts and two-day forecasts from the ecological prediction system, namely the Coupled Great Bay Ecological Environmental Prediction System (CGEEPS), has been setup in the Pearl River Estuary and adjacent seas. These forecast systems have been built on the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport modelling system. This comprises an atmospheric Weather Research Forecasting module and an oceanic Regional Ocean Modelling System module. Daily real-time nowcasts and 2-day forecasts of temperature, salinity, NO2 + NO3, chlorophyll, and pH are continuously available. Visualizations of the forecasts are available on a local website (http://www.gbaycarbontest.xyz:8008/). This manuscript describes the setup of the environmental forecasting system, evaluates model hindcast simulations from 2014 to 2018, and investigates downscaling and two-way coupling with the regional atmospheric model.