AUTHOR=Panzeri Diego , Reale Marco , Cossarini Gianpiero , Salon Stefano , Carlucci Roberto , Spedicato Maria Teresa , Zupa Walter , Vrgoč Nedo , Libralato Simone 

TITLE=Future distribution of demersal species in a warming Mediterranean sub-basin

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Marine Science

VOLUME=Volume 11 - 2024

YEAR=2024

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1308325

DOI=10.3389/fmars.2024.1308325

ISSN=2296-7745

ABSTRACT=Predicting range shifts of marine species under different CO2 emission of CO2 scenarios is of paramount importance to understand biodiversity and spatial potential changes in a context of climate change and to ensure appropriate management, in particular in areas where resources are also critical to fisheries. Important tools which use environmental variables to infer range limits and species habitat suitability are the species distribution models or SDMs. In this work, we develop an ensemble species distribution model (e-SDM) to assess past, present and future distributions under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 of nine demersal species and hotspot areas for their two life stages (adult and juvenile) in the Adriatic and Western Ionian Seas in four