Ecological adaptability assessment for adaptive management of island social–ecological systems: A potential–constraint framework applied to Dongtou District, China

Yunyun Xiang^1,2Cifang Wu^1*

• ¹Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
• ²Second Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China

Island ecosystems face escalating,are increasingly exposed to compound pressures from global environmental change and intensive human activities, while conventional post-hoc restoration approaches often prove insufficient for ensuringfail to secure long-term sustainability. To address this critical gap, we develop and apply a novel potential–constraint framework for ecological adaptability assessment, specifically tailored for adaptive management. This framework that bridges ecological evaluation and spatial governance by coupling scenario-based spatial modeling with explicit policy feedback. Using Dongtou District, Zhejiang Province, China, as a representative island social–ecological system, the framework quantifies the trade-offs between ecological resilience and development potential under alternative policy trajectories. A multi-dimensional indicator system—encompassing habitat structure, ecosystem function, socio-economic conditions, marine utilization, and governance responses—is integrated within a gridded modeling platform to identify adaptive management pathways toward 2030. The results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity: high-adaptability zones coincide with ecological reserves, whereas low-adaptability zoneswhereas low-adaptability zones cluster on densely inhabited and industrialized islands. Scenario simulations further demonstrateshow that policy orientation decisively reshapes ecological adaptability patterns. Specifically, Among the three pathways, the eco–economic coordination scenario among the three pathways yields the most balanced configuration, significantly enhancing spatial connectivity and mitigating landscape fragmentation. Overall, this study advances island adaptive management by introducing a transferable, policy-linked analytical tool that moves beyond static suitability evaluations. The proposed potential–constraint framework offersprovides a dynamic decision-support platform ithat integratesing ecological assessment, scenario analysis, and policy design, offering providing actionable insights for anticipatory governance and sustainable development in vulnerable island and coastal regions under accelerating global change.