AUTHOR=Lohmueller Lisa C. , Kanwar Manreet K. , Bailey Stephen , Murali Srinivas , Antaki James F. 

TITLE=Retrospective Evaluation of Bayesian Risk Models of LVAD Mortality at a Single Implant Center

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Medicine

VOLUME=Volume 5 - 2018

YEAR=2018

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/medicine/articles/10.3389/fmed.2018.00277

DOI=10.3389/fmed.2018.00277

ISSN=2296-858X

ABSTRACT=Use of a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) can benefit patients with end stage heart failure, but only with careful patient selection. In this study, Bayesian network models for predicting LVAD patient mortality at 1, 3, and 12 months post-implant were evaluated on retrospective data from a single implant center. The performance of these models was better than the original model validation at all three time points, with receiver operating characteristic areas under the curves (ROC AUCs) of 78%, 76%, and 75%, respectively. The difference in performance may be due to a combination of institutional experience and patient disease severity. This evaluation of model performance verifies their utility for prospective decision making at this institution.