AUTHOR=Li Jing , Li Yunmei , Chen Chong , Guo Jiayu , Qiao Mengmeng , Lyu Jun 

TITLE=Recent estimates and predictions of 5-year survival rate in patients with pancreatic cancer: A model-based period analysis

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Medicine

VOLUME=Volume 9 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/medicine/articles/10.3389/fmed.2022.1049136

DOI=10.3389/fmed.2022.1049136

ISSN=2296-858X

ABSTRACT=Background: The 5-year survival rate for pancreatic cancer (PC) is incredibly low, resulting in this often being a fatal disease. Timely and accurate assessment of the survival rate and prognosis of patients with PC is of great significance for the development of new programs for prevention, monitoring, and treatment.
Methods: Period analysis and further stratified analysis were used to determine the 5-year relative survival rate (RSR) of patients with PC from 2002 to 2016 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results project database of the National Cancer Institute. Based on this, a generalized linear model was created to predict the survival rate of patients from 2017 to 2021.
Results: During 2002–2016, the 5-year RSR of patients with PC increased from 7.9% to 23.7%. The generalized linear model predicted that the survival rate had increased to 33.9% during 2017–2021, and hence was still unacceptably low. The survival rate of patients ≥80 years old at diagnosis was the lowest among all age groups, and was predicted to be only 15.3% during 2017–2021. Notably, the survival rate of patients with differentiation grade III at diagnosis remains particularly low, at 7.6%.
Conclusion: The survival rates of patients with PC, although slightly improved, remain extremely low. The survival rate data of patients with PC were monitored and analyzed in a timely manner, and the differences in the influences of factors such as age, sex, differentiation grade, and treatment plan were explored. This has provided data to support relevant medical workers to formulate effective tumor prevention and control policies.