AUTHOR=Tomassetti Sara , Ravaglia Claudia , Piciucchi Sara , Ryu Jay , Wells Athol , Donati Luca , Dubini Alessandra , Klersy Catherine , Luzzi Valentina , Gori Leonardo , Rosi Elisabetta , Lavorini Federico , Poletti Venerino 

TITLE=Historical eye on IPF: a cohort study redefining the mortality scenario

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Medicine

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2023

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/medicine/articles/10.3389/fmed.2023.1151922

DOI=10.3389/fmed.2023.1151922

ISSN=2296-858X

ABSTRACT=Rationale: Therapies that slow IPF progression are now available and recent studies suggest that the use of anti-fibrotic therapy may reduce IPF mortality. 

Objectives: Our aim was to evaluate whether,  to what extent and for which factors the survival of IPF in a real life setting has changed in the last 15 years. 

Methods: Historical eye is an observational study of a large cohort of consecutive IPF patients diagnosed and treated in a referral centre for ILDs with prospective intention. We collected all consecutive IPF patients seen at GB Morgagni Hospital, Forlì, Italy between January 2002 and December 2016 (15 years). We used survival analysis methods to describe and model the time to death or lung transplant, and Cox regression to model prevalent and incident patients characteristics (time-dependent Cox models were fitted).

Measurements and Main Results: The study comprised 634 patients. The year 2012 identifies the time point of mortality shift ( HR 0.58, CI 0.46-0.63, p <0.001).   In the more recent cohort more patients had a better preserved lung function, underwent cryobiopsy instead of surgery and were treated with antifibrotics. Highly significant negative prognostic factors were lung cancer (HR 4.46, 965% CI 3.3-6, p<0.001), hospitalizations (HR 8.37, 95% CI 6.5-10.7, p<0.001) and acute exacerbations HR 8.37 (95% CI 6.52-10.7), p<0.001. Average antifibrotic treatment effect estimated using propensity score matching showed a significant effect in the reduction of all causes mortality (ATE coeff -0.23, SE 0.04, p<0.001),  acute exacerbations (ATE coeff -0.15, SE 0.04, p<0.001) and hospitalizations (ATE coeff -0.15, SE 0.04, p<0.001), but no effect on lung cancer risk (ATE coeff -0.03, SE 0.03, p=0.4). 

Conclusions: Antifibrotic drugs significantly impact hospitalizations, acute exacerbations and IPF survival. After the introduction of cryobiopsy and antifibrotic drugs the prognosis of IPF patients has significantly improved together with our ability to detect IPF at an earlier stage.