AUTHOR=Li Hong , Ning Qian , Liu Ya , Pang Yamei , Feng Sifang 

TITLE=Construction and verification of risk prediction model of pulmonary embolism in ICU patients with COPD in acute exacerbation based on age, SAPSII score, braking state, and mechanical ventilation

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Medicine

VOLUME=Volume 12 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/medicine/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1564220

DOI=10.3389/fmed.2025.1564220

ISSN=2296-858X

ABSTRACT=ObjectiveTo assess the risk of pulmonary embolism (PE) in ICU patients with acute exacerbation of COPD, using age, SAPS II score, immobilization status, and mechanical ventilation as factors, and to develop a PE risk prediction model.MethodsA retrospective study of 220 ICU patients with acute COPD exacerbation between March 2017 and March 2024. Patients were categorized into PE-positive and PE-negative groups. A logistic regression model was constructed based on clinical characteristics to identify risk factors for PE.ResultsAmong 220 patients, 50 developed PE. Logistic regression identified age, SAPS II score, immobilization of ≥7 days, and invasive mechanical ventilation as significant predictors of PE (P < 0.05). The multifactorial prediction model had an AUC of 0.829 (95% CI: 0.744–0.914), with sensitivity of 77.81% and specificity of 70.63%.ConclusionsA PE prediction model based on age, SAPS II score, immobilization of ≥7 days, and mechanical ventilation was developed. This model effectively identifies high-risk patients and aids in early intervention for PE in ICU patients with acute COPD exacerbation.