AUTHOR=Sun Xiao , Jing Pengrui , Yang Yuqing , Sun Haifu , Tang Wenxiang , Mi Jian , Zong Pengju , Yan Qi , Yang Huilin , Qiao Yusen 

TITLE=Risk prediction of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures in postmenopausal osteoporotic women by machine learning modelling

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Medicine

VOLUME=Volume 12 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/medicine/articles/10.3389/fmed.2025.1664219

DOI=10.3389/fmed.2025.1664219

ISSN=2296-858X

ABSTRACT=BackgroundOsteoporosis in postmenopausal women is characterized by significant bone mass loss due to reduced oestrogen, leading to an increased risk of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCF). Comprehensive risk prediction models for diagnosing and predicting fracture risk in this population are still lacking.ObjectiveThis study aims to identify key risk factors for OVCF in postmenopausal osteoporotic women and develop a machine learning model to predict OVCF risk by integrating clinical, biological, and musculoskeletal data.MethodsThis retrospective case-control study included 486 postmenopausal women diagnosed with osteoporosis between 2015 and 2018. The patients were divided into a non-fracture group (Group A) and a vertebral fracture group (Group B) based on whether they developed OVCF during the subsequent 5 years of treatment and follow-up. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for OVCF. Furthermore, a comprehensive risk prediction model was constructed using multiple machine learning algorithms.ResultsAmong the 486 postmenopausal women, 269 (55.35%) experienced OVCF. Low bone mineral density (BMD), chronic inflammation, and sarcopenia were identified as independent risk factors, while regular anti-osteoporotic treatment was associated with a reduced fracture incidence. The Balanced Bagging machine learning model demonstrated an accuracy of 98.98%, a sensitivity of 98.24%, a specificity of 100.00%, and the model’s F1-score was 0.99. The deployed model outputs calibrated, patient-specific probabilities with case-level explanations and supports dynamic re-scoring as new BMD/CTx/NLR results become available, enabling personalized risk management in routine care.ConclusionThe development of OVCF in postmenopausal osteoporotic women is influenced by a combination of bone metabolism, inflammatory processes, and muscle health. The machine learning model developed in this study provides a reliable and accurate tool for personalized OVCF risk prediction, allowing clinicians to optimize prevention and treatment strategies. Future large-scale prospective studies are required to validate these findings and enhance the model’s predictive capabilities.