AUTHOR=Wang Xuan , Meng Longyan , Zhao Yanxin , Liu Xueyuan 

TITLE=Development and external validation of a prognostic model for occult atrial fibrillation in patients with ischemic stroke

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Neurology

VOLUME=Volume 13 - 2022

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/neurology/articles/10.3389/fneur.2022.1034350

DOI=10.3389/fneur.2022.1034350

ISSN=1664-2295

ABSTRACT=Objective: Patients with acute ischemic stroke(AIS) are not currently able to predict their risk of occult atrial fibrillation(AF) using a simple scoring system. Therefore, we developed and externally validated a nomogram to predict occult AF in patients with AIS.
Methods: We prospectively conducted a development cohort with data collected at our stroke center from July 2017 to February 2018, and an external validation cohort from March 2019 to December 2019.
Results: A total of 177 participants completed the follow-up data for generating the nomogram model. Multivariate logistic regression analysis with AF as the dependent variable indicated that age>65, Heart rate>100, C-reactive protein(CRP),  N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptid(NT-proBNP)>270, hemorrhagic transformation(HT) the 5 variables remained independent predictors of developing AF, and a nomogram was generated based on these factors. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for the model was 0.937, the C-index was 0.926, and the AUC-ROC for the validation cohort was 0.913.
Conclusion: This is the first nomogram developed and externally validated in a stroke center cohort for individualized prediction of a patient's probability of AIS with occult AF. It provides valuable information for the screening of occult AF after stroke.