AUTHOR=Liang Dong , Guan Qing , Huang Minqing , He Yiyu , Ou Yangjiang , Chen Min , Zheng Xiaoxin , Lin Xiuquan 

TITLE=Changing trends of disease burden of stroke from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions among the Chinese population

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Neurology

VOLUME=Volume 14 - 2023

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/neurology/articles/10.3389/fneur.2023.1255524

DOI=10.3389/fneur.2023.1255524

ISSN=1664-2295

ABSTRACT=Understanding the temporal trends in the disease burden of stroke and its attributable risk factors in China, along with the future trends in the next 25 years, is important for effective prevention strategies and improvement. To provide new insights into the age and sex-specific incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and their trends from 1990 to 2019, and the prediction in the next 25 years. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease Study (2019) was used to extract the data of age-and sex-specific incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of stroke in China, 1990-2019. We estimated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to access the temporal trends of disease burden of stroke. The R package called Nordpred was used to perform an age-period-cohort analysis to predict the prevalence of stroke. Results: The number of incidencet cases, deaths and DALYs of stroke increased from 1990 to 2019. Overall downward trends were observed in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) from 1990-2019. Significant temporal trends in mortality and DALYs of stroke were observed. High systolic blood pressure, smoking and high sodium diet were main driving forces for stroke. The DALYs lost attributable to smoking were different for males and females. In the next 25 years, the numbers of new cases and deaths of stroke should continue to increase. The ASIR and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) should show a downward trend among males and females. Conclusions: Despite the overall rates of stroke declined over the period from 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of people affected by stroke has substantially increased. There has been a substantial increase in the burden of stroke due to risk factors, and will continue to increase in the next 25 years.