AUTHOR=Cai Yuzhou , Qian Jingxian 

TITLE=Global trends and health workforce analysis of breast cancer burden from high red meat consumption 1990–2050 using machine learning approach

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Nutrition

VOLUME=Volume 12 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/nutrition/articles/10.3389/fnut.2025.1576043

DOI=10.3389/fnut.2025.1576043

ISSN=2296-861X

ABSTRACT=BackgroundHigh red meat consumption has been implicated in breast cancer development, yet comprehensive global burden assessments and health system relationships remain limited.MethodsWe analyzed breast cancer mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using Global Burden of Disease 2021 data across 204 countries. Age-period-cohort analysis, decomposition analysis, health inequality assessment, frontier analysis, and correlation analysis with healthcare workforce density were employed. Machine learning models (ARIMA, Prophet) provided projections to 2050.ResultsDespite declining global age-standardized mortality rates (APC: −0.772%), absolute breast cancer deaths increased from 45,074 (1990) to 81,506 (2021), with DALYs rising from 1.4 to 2.5 million. Profound regional disparities emerged: high-income regions showed declining trends (Western Europe APC: −1.736%) while developing regions experienced increasing burdens (North Africa/Middle East APC: +2.026%). Decomposition analysis revealed population growth (100.266%) and aging (34.86%) as primary drivers, partially offset by epidemiological improvements (−35.127%). Turkey exhibited the largest mortality increase (APC: +3.924%) vs. Denmark's greatest decline (APC: −2.379%). Healthcare workforce analysis demonstrated strong initial correlations between nursing/midwifery density and disease burden (r = 0.68, 1990) that weakened substantially over time (r = 0.24, 2019), suggesting evolving detection-prevention dynamics. Health inequality analysis showed declining relative disparities (Concentration Index: 0.461–0.297) despite increasing absolute gaps. Machine learning projections forecast continued burden increases, with female deaths reaching 99,749 by 2050.ConclusionsThe global breast cancer burden associated with red meat consumption presents a complex paradox of declining age-standardized rates alongside rising absolute burden, with pronounced inequalities between developed and developing nations. The evolving relationship between healthcare workforce and disease burden highlights shifting dynamics from detection-driven increases to prevention-focused reductions. Strategic policy interventions should prioritize nursing and physical therapy workforce investment in developing regions, implement age-specific prevention strategies for younger populations (25–34 years), and establish context-specific dietary guidelines that consider socioeconomic factors to effectively reduce global breast cancer burden.