The recent World Endoscopy Organization (WEO) guidelines now recognize precursor lesions of colorectal cancer (CRC) as legitimate screening targets. However, an optimal screening method for detecting advanced adenoma (AA), a significant precursor lesion, remains elusive.
We employed five machine learning methods, using clinical and laboratory data, to develop and validate a diagnostic model for identifying patients with AA (569 AAs vs. 3228 controls with normal colonoscopy). The best-performing model was selected based on sensitivity and specificity assessments. Its performance in recognizing adenoma-carcinoma sequence was evaluated in line with guidelines, and adjustable thresholds were established. For comparison, the Fecal Occult Blood Test (FOBT) was also selected.
The XGBoost model demonstrated superior performance in identifying AA, with a sensitivity of 70.8% and a specificity of 83.4%. It successfully detected 42.7% of non-advanced adenoma (NAA) and 80.1% of CRC. The model-transformed risk assessment scale provided diagnostic performance at different positivity thresholds. Compared to FOBT, the XGBoost model better identified AA and NAA, however, was less effective in CRC.
The XGBoost model, compared to FOBT, offers improved accuracy in identifying AA patients. While it may not meet the recommendations of some organizations, it provides value for individuals who are unable to use FOBT for various reasons.