AUTHOR=Wang Zhenglong , Wei Hongwei , Qi Weifeng , Liu Xiaobo , Cui Hongxue 

TITLE=Epidemiological trends and projections of esophageal cancer in BRICS−plus: Based on the GBD 2021 database

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Oncology

VOLUME=Volume 15 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/oncology/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1616702

DOI=10.3389/fonc.2025.1616702

ISSN=2234-943X

ABSTRACT=IntroductionEsophageal cancer represents a substantial global health challenge. Given their diverse socio-economic profiles and large populations, the BRICS countries are pivotal in elucidating the burden of this disease. Nonetheless, limited research has systematically examined the trends of esophageal cancer within these nations.MethodThis research utilized data from the GBD database, encompassing ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and 95% UI. The EAPC was employed to assess trends, while the BAPC model was used to project future trends. Four risk factors were examined, and health inequalities were evaluated using SII and CI.ResultIn 2021, China reported the highest rates across all metrics among BRICS countries, whereas Egypt exhibited the lowest rates in most cases. Smoking was identified as the predominant factor contributing to esophageal cancer mortality and DALYs in the majority of countries. Ethiopia demonstrated the highest proportion of cases attributable to a diet low in vegetables, India to tobacco chewing, and Russia to alcohol consumption. Health inequalities between countries were observed to be gradually narrowing. Projections indicate that from 2021 to 2030, Egypt, Iran, and South Africa will experience declines across all rates. Brazil, Russia, India, and the UAE are expected to see reductions in ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR but increases in ASMR. Conversely, China’s ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR are projected to rise, except for ASDR. In Saudi Arabia, ASPR and ASMR are anticipated to increase, while ASIR and ASDR will decrease. Ethiopia is expected to witness increases in most rates.ConclusionThis study examined the burden of esophageal cancer in BRICS countries. Recognizing the disparities across multiple dimensions can aid these nations in formulating more effective public health strategies and optimizing resource allocation, both of which are essential for the prevention and control of the disease.